A mere two days ago I wrote about the possibility of a major Israeli military incursion into Gaza, the only way to stop the Kassams. And now? Now there is talk of a "ceasefire."
But it would NOT be a "ceasefire," it would be a hudna — a temporary cessation of hostilities that provides time for them to strengthen themselves (keep training their army, keep smuggling in more sophisticated weapons) with an eye to the day, as it suited them, when they would hit us again.
This "ceasefire" — as envisioned by the Israeli gov’t at any rate — would mean that we would get back Shalit and release large numbers of Palestinian prisoners in return. The word is that Hamas has just upped its demand for prisoners: they now want 1,400 in return for Shalit. Why did they increase their demand? Because they see us as weak and too eager, and they believe they can get away with this.
The bad guys are winning.
Olmert is so eager to "produce": to show positive achievement in the face of all the current failure — failure to get Shalit back and failure to stop the rockets — that he is willing to strike a deal that shows a SEMBLANCE of success, but on the backs of our children and our future. This is unconscionable, but then, I haven’t observed that Olmert has a large conscience.
The news today, along with this, carries an expression of concern by the Israeli Air Force regarding the acquisition by terrorists groups in Gaza of anti-aircraft missiles that might be able to shoot down a helicopter. Rest assured, if we call a "ceasefire" now, they will keep right on bringing in that sophisticated equipment. Rest assured, when the inevitable day comes that we end up fighting those forces, it will be worse for the IAF than it would be now.
How incredibly shortsighted a "ceasefire" would be.
Hamas is putting out feelers with regard to the hudna now. And why do you suppose this is? Because they would like time to regroup, they are hurting. This is precisely the time to come on strong.
If we stop our attacks now, instead of going in full strength, they will crow that we are weak and they will be motivated (during the lull we will be providing) to increase their potential to do us damage. You can count on it.
If we release 1,400 prisoners, while we are celebrating the release of Shalit some solid percentage of that 1,400 will be rejoining the ranks of terrorists eager to have a go at us. (The business of releasing prisoners "without blood on their hands" is a crock: sometimes they get caught before they have blood on their hands, sometimes they are involved in peripheral actions. Most would be pleased to help do us in.) Our innocents will pay a price down the road, a price paid in life and injury, for the "victory" of getting Shalit back this way.
What is wrong with this country?
More to follow after Shabbat. Maybe we’ll get lucky and the covert negotiations with Hamas will fall through. But we shouldn’t bank on this.
This posting can be found at: https://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2006/11/24/posted-november-24-2006.html