"Ever Elusive"

Genuine peace here, that is. Or even the hint of such a genuine peace. The stage is not properly set. What we have are actors making a pretense of seeking it.

We can look northward first with regard to this. In the 24 plus hours since the big announcement was made regarding peace negotiations with Syria, I've only become more convinced that the government isn't serious, but is playing a game.

Take Livni's comment to the press yesterday: "Israel's primary goal has always been peace with its neighbors. The Syrians have to understand that entails giving up their support of terror, of Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah."

Those are the stipulations that I alluded to yesterday. But you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know Syria is not about to surrender all these things now. And so, if you were serious about peace, you would not announce negotiations now.

But if what you were interested in was simply being engaged in a peace process, that is something else all together.

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This is precisely what Barry Rubin said , in a TV interview. He believes that the process serves both sides, but that both sides know a real peace will not come from this.

Says Rubin, with all of the ways that Olmert is served by engaging in the process now, the key one is a message that says: "You have to keep me in office, because of what I'm dealing with."

Aaron Lerner refers to this as the "etrog effect" -- the tender handling that a political leader suspected of wrong-doing may be given by left wing press and law enforcement officials if that leader is involved in an ostensible peace process that is pleasing to them.

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A host of politicians -- except for those on the left -- responded to Olmert's announcement with precisely the same suspicions. From the Likud faction came a statement that Olmert was carrying out "a cynical and transparent stunt in order to deflect attention from his personal problems."

Gideon Saar, faction head, observed that Olmert "has no moral and public mandate to hand over the Golan and bring the Syrians back to the Sea of Galilee."

MK Zevulun Orlev (NU/NRP) charged that "without a doubt," negotiations with Syria "are causing Israel grave damage, because in order to save his skin [Olmert] is prepared to make far-reaching diplomatic concessions."

And yet, Olmert has the unmitigated gall to declare that the negotiations are a "national obligation" and that the contacts with Syria represent "an historic breakthrough." He actually says all of this with a straight face.

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As expected, the response across the nation with regard to surrendering the Golan has been negative. Some 70% of our population is opposed.

The mayors and regional heads in the Golan held an emergency meeting to decide how to deal with this.

And there is action taking place in the Knesset to spur legislation previously in process that would require 80 votes (out of 120) before the Golan could be given to Syria in any peace deal. MK Eliahu Gabbay (NU/NRP) has announced that he has already secured 57 votes out of 61 necessary.

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We all need to laugh when we can, in the face of all that's going on, in order to stay sane and balanced. And so, I off the following from the Post, without comment:

"Kadima officials celebrated the fact that the opening of diplomatic negotiations with Syria dwarfed the news coverage about Prime Minister Ehud Olmert allegedly receiving massive sums of money for his private use from American Jewish financier Morris Talansky on Wednesday's nightly news broadcasts.

"They denied charges from opposition MKs that the decision to reveal the negotiations on Wednesday had been made to distract the public from the corruption case against Olmert on the night that the gag order preventing the publication of the most damning information was lifted."

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Now, as to that other "'peace process" with the Palestinians, allow me to offer two news items:

Mahmoud Abbas opened an economic conference in Bethlehem yesterday by saying, "East Jerusalem is ours and it's an occupied territory. It must be returned."

This is a fairly typical indication of the rigidity of the PA position. Note that he doesn't even speak of sharing the eastern part of Jerusalem with Israel. What he advocates is total PA control both of the Kotel and Har Habayit (the Temple Mount). In his dreams...

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Totally aside the intransigency of his statement is the fact that it is in error historically. No part of Jerusalem EVER was in the possession of the Palestinians. One does get weary of the lie repeated so often that it is widely believed.

After Britain relinquished the Mandate for Palestine , and Israel declared independence, the Arab states promptly responded by declaring war on Israel. By the end of the war, Jordan had captured the eastern part of Jerusalem. It remained in Jordanian hands until the war in '67, at which time Israel took it, subsequently declaring it to be, according to Israeli Basic Law, part of the unified capital of Israel. It is not "occupied," and, as it never belonged to the Palestinians, cannot be "returned" to them.

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Just one day before this happened, Abbas had dedicated a statue of a "Return Key," the largest key in the world, in the refugee camp of Aida, near Bethlehem. He declared that it was "the symbol of our return, our hopes and our dreams. This key will remain alive until we return home, God willing, nothing will hinder us and we will not abandon our dream."

According to the PA news agency WAFA, "[the] President made it clear that we are determined in every word and phrase on the right of refugees to return which is a sacred right, and never be delayed or postponed."

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Before we move on to other situations , a look at an analysis from the Institute of National Security Studies of what may or may not have been agreed upon so far in our negotiations with the Palestinians.

In a nutshell: There is an attempt to deal with borders first, as this is seen as least problematic. The idea is that if borders are agreed upon then it will be known which settlements will have to be dismantled and that process can be begun.

But the PA wants us to retain only some 3.5% of Judea and Samaria, with other lands given to them to compensate, while Olmert and Livni are talking about retaining 8-10%. No deal even here yet, never mind on refugees or Jerusalem.

What is most significant to me in this report is the suggestion that if he is given the gift of an agreement this will "make it easier for Bush to take a harsher stance with regard to Iran before the end of his term, perhaps even including a show of force." It's not the first time I've encountered a link.

This analysis states that "the weakness of the agreement lies in its being a 'shelf' agreement." We would, in essence, be signing on in principle to certain parameters when we don't know what the situation on the ground might be at time of implementation.

One of many weakness, to say the least.

http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=39348

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Let us look then at the situation to our west. Hamas has not quite declared negotiations on the ceasefire to be a failure, because Egypt is still pushing, but they're close. They see Israeli terms as completely unacceptable. Terms such as insisting that the blockade will not be lifted until the ceasefire has been put into effect and it is clear that all factions are cooperating.

I love this statement from a Hamas official:

"Israel wants a free truce. They don't want to offer anything in return. They want an end to the rocket attacks in return for an end to their aggression."

So be it.

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Going full circle in our analysis, I want to return to the Barry Rubin interview. What Assad wants most, he suggests, is Lebanon, not the Golan. For him the process of negotiating peace with us would take some of the heat off of him with regard to Lebanon, and Syrian involvement there.

Rubin made it very clear that in his opinion the big news is what's happening in Lebanon, which will have repercussion long after the issue of peace negotiations between Israel and Syria has disappeared.

The Arab-mediated settlement made in Lebanon with regard to power and control was a victory for Hezbollah (and thus for Syria and Iran). The US, foolishly pre-occupied with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, failed to support the government of Lebanon.

The embattled Lebanese prime minister, Fuad Saniora, seeing his government had little choice, caved to Hezbollah. The arrangements that were made give Hezbollah veto power over any government decision. (There is even concern now that Hezbollah could veto renewal of the UNIFIL mandate.)

And what did Condoleezza Rice say about this? "We view this agreement as a positive step toward resolving the current crisis."

She ought to hang her head in shame.

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The US, while giving tacit approval , is very lukewarm about our prospective negotiations with Syria. They're not eager to have us take the heat off of Assad.

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Olmert has approved construction of 286 new housing units in Betar Illit, a haredi community. This is a move, hardly the first, to keep Shas in the coalition. And it works every time. Faction head Eli Yishai has declared that as soon as anything he disapproves of with regard to talks with Syria happens (i.e., we give them the Golan), they'll leave. But so far nothing is happening, so they can stay.

This is his refrain, and he, too, should hang his head in shame. If he had a smidgen of integrity he would declare the obvious -- that the announcement to negotiate with Syria presupposes surrender of the Golan -- and then leave to preclude it from happening.

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I end with this shocking report on the alleged training of PA security forces in Jordan.

Steven Smith, writing in the International Herald Tribune , has shared the story of the failure of that training. He begins his article:

"The first graduates of General Keith Dayton's Palestinian police-training program will soon hit the hard streets of the West Bank. Unfortunately, they will do so without the firearms, radios and first-aid equipment that they have been promised after graduating from a training program so fraught with problems that it can hardly be called a training program at all.

"I was part of that program and watched as nearly a thousand young officers were being put through the motions of an effort that was dominated more by political pressure than by the need to produce well-trained graduates."

I ask that each of you read this in its entirety and share it with others.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/19/opinion/edsmith.php

Then I ask that you, and everyone else in the US you will share this with, do something else. Contact your senators and congresspersons and share the link with them. Tell them briefly what it describes. Ask them what the hell is going on. Demand that they do an inquiry into this situation. Stir things up. Even those in favor of training PA forces would want to know that genuine training is being done.

You can find contact information for senators and congresspersons at:

http://www.israelunitycoalition.org/media/contacts_congress.php

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http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/22/may-22-2008-ever-elusive.html

Three countries -- Israel, Syria and Turkey -- released the announcement at the same time:

Israel and Syria have begun peace negotiations , mediated by Turkey:

"The two sides have declared their intention to hold the negotiations in good faith and openly, and hold a serious and continuous dialogue in order to reach a comprehensive peace deal in accordance with the framework set at the (1991) Madrid Conference."

The talks (which are not face-to-face) apparently began Monday.

Following this announcement, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said that Israel had agreed to fully concede the Golan Heights.

Sources from Olmert's office responded to this: "The negotiations are being held on the basis of the Madrid Conference principles. We do not recall an Israeli commitment at the conference to fully cede the Golan Heights."

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The Madrid Conference of 1991: Hosted by Spain and co-sponsored by the US and the USSR after the Gulf War (which was the impetus). After three days of meetings, there were two sorts of negotiations planned. One was a multilateral track in which nations of the Middle East were supposed to discuss issues such as economic development and water. The other was bi-lateral talks between Israel and Syria, Israel and Lebanon, Israel and Jordan, and Israel and the Palestinians.

In subsequent years, meetings at the ambassadorial level took place between Israel and Syria in Washington DC. Within the Madrid framework, there was Israeli acknowledgement of a willingness to do some withdrawal from the Golan, but the depth of that withdrawal was not spelled out.

Additionally the Israelis had stipulations regarding the need for full normalization of relations (establishment of embassies and open borders) for a protracted period of time before the agreed upon withdrawal would take place in stages. (The authoritarian Syrian regime -- whether under the father, Hafetz Assad, in 1991 or the son, Bashar Assad, now -- has shown itself to be vastly resistant to openness and full normalization.)

Then too, there was an Israeli stipulation about security arrangements.

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Ultimately, all of the various negotiations -- the last upgraded round in January 1999 with US President Clinton, Israeli PM Barak and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk a-Shara -- came to naught.

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Only recently government officials were saying that Syrian would have to throw out the terrorist groups such as Hamas from Damascus, stop assisting Hezbollah in Lebanon, and break with Iran before we'd negotiate with them.

Not only is there not a snowball's chance in hell of all of this happening, we now know that Syria was building an atomic reactor with N. Korean assistance.

So what is going on and what is one to make of this?

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The first thing this suggests is that negotiations with the Palestinians are not going well. Olmert is looking for a "success" somewhere, and if one track slows the pattern is to turn to another.

There have been feelers and off-again on-again announcements for some time, but now it is being made public.

If there is a reason to be just a bit alarmed , it has to do with whom Olmert sent to do the negotiating in Turkey: Yoram Turbowitz, Olmert's chief of staff, and Shalom Turgeman, a foreign policy advisor to Olmert. Two men whom I understand to be far left and willing to cross red lines.

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But there are many reasons to not be alarmed.

An announcement from the Prime Minister's office says that the return of Turbowitz and Turgeman from Ankara is awaited in order "to learn of the achievements in the attempt to launch a communication channel with the Syrians mediated by Turkey."

"An attempt to launch a communication channel" does not exactly represent a done deal. This is, one might guess, largely in the nature of a trial balloon.

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While we will have to await responses , my best guess is that this will not be received well. The nation is not in favor of surrendering the Golan.

Not only are we speaking of a much loved and beautiful region of the nation, there are tremendous implications with regard to security because of the heights and -- perhaps even more importantly -- water. Significant headwaters for the Jordan originate in the Golan, and whatever deal might be struck, turning those headwaters over to Syria is asking for trouble.

The Golan, in contrast to Judea and Samaria , is considered part of Israel proper today, and is governed under Israeli civil law.

The Golan is defined within Jewish law as being part of the Land of Israel, so that laws such as shmita that apply in the land apply there. It was originally part of the Mandate for Palestine (which meant intended for the Jewish homeland) but Britain traded the area to France. It has been under Israeli control now longer than it was ever under Syrian control.

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It is understood that we would need to surrender all of the Golan for a peace treaty with Syria: this is Syria's upfront bottom line. The only thing that might be negotiated is a small area at the foot of the heights that would determine whether Syria came all of the way down to the shore of the Kinneret.

I thus see as disingenuous the statement from the prime minister's office that negotiations are being done ('would be done'?) under the terms of the Madrid conference, which doesn't require full surrender of the Golan.

This is accurate, in so far as it goes: Madrid understandings did not call for this. But as negotiations progressed over the years, the direction in which they went was towards full surrender. What is troublesome is that each time after negotiations were broken off, when they were renewed again, they picked up from where they were left off. This, clearly, is what the Syrians expect now.

And so Olmert and company must be asked if they are being less than forthcoming, and if an understanding regarding full surrender has been made behind closed doors that we're not being told about. There is very good reason to think this is the case, because Syria would not be interested otherwise.

If the prime minister is not committed to relinquishing all of the Golan under the right circumstances, it suggests posturing that is not serious -- a bit of diplomatic game playing.

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One other factor must be mentioned here: that of the vulnerability of Olmert's position because of the specter of an indictment that hangs over his head.

Repeatedly I've heard people refer to him as 'wounded' -- with the follow-up observation that a wounded animal is dangerous. He has less to lose if he realizes he likely has no political future, and so he might be more reckless. On the other hand, even within his own party his support is fading.

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As the media is now permitted to reveal more details of the Olmert investigation, we're being told that he made "personal use" of funds given to him by Talansky. Said one official: "Since Olmert became prime minister, and up until this day, he has failed to register or declare the funds he received from Talansky." Police found Olmert's accounting of the use of the funds "unconvincing." "Olmert said the money went to cover [campaign] deficits, but he has shown no proof of that."

Olmert is supposed to be questioned on Friday , and then Talansky on Sunday. Olmert's lawyers are seeking a delay in the deposition to be taken from Talansky, to permit them to better review the evidence so they can properly cross-examine.

A team from the National Fraud Unit will be flying to the States to continue the investigation there.

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http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/21/may-21-2008-and-this-too.html

It made the news today that Olmert is dubious as to whether a ceasefire will work. However, he's willing to let the process play out because of his respect for Omar Suleiman, Egypt's intelligence chief and the negotiator in the matter.

A splendid reason , is it not?

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http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/20/may-20-2008-ceasefire.html

If quiet comes, it will , as I indicated yesterday, be of an informal nature and follow a progression. We'll stop attacking them if they stop launching rockets. Apparently the release of Shalit would not be made formally part of an agreement (which is what our demand was only days ago), but there would presumably be an understanding that negotiations on Shalit would accelerate after the quiet was in place. If this happened, then Israel would lift the siege.

Israel is also, according to Haaretz , demanding that "Hamas cease smuggling weapons, funds and persons trained in paramilitary activities." This is a joke, as I have not noticed of late that Hamas is a reliable organization that will honor commitments in this respect. There is not the slightest doubt that smuggling will continue as they can get away with it. Only the most stringent monitoring and policing of the situation would intervene.

What we're hearing is that the Egyptians said they will "step up efforts."

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Now Egypt will be consulting in Cairo with a delegation led by Moussa Abu Marzuk, deputy head of the Hamas's political bureau, to see if they're willing to go along. As they're hurting badly, they will likely agree.

But we should not ignore the words of Osama Hamdan , a senior Hamas official in Lebanon, that we are mistaken if we think a truce with Hamas would mean that the "resistance operations" would end. That very attitude is what makes it obvious that they will continue smuggling to the best of their ability.

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A word of explanation : What we will have, if Hamas agrees to terms, is a tahdiyeh, which is a period of calm, as compared to a hudna, which is a formal ceasefire agreement.

It should be noted, as well, that this tahdiyeh would not apply to Judea and Samaria, where we would continue anti-terrorist operations.

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It should also be noted that Haim Ramon , deputy prime minister, yesterday charged that the government was secretly negotiating directly with Hamas despite government policy that prohibits such contact until Hamas recognizes Israel, renounces terrorism, and agrees to abide by former agreements. There has been no official statement refuting this, and the guess is that he knows exactly what he's talking about.

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Well, that was fast...

Earlier today Army Radio here in Israel cited an unnamed top Israeli official as saying that behind closed doors a senior member of the Bush entourage here last week had said that Bush and Cheney favored military action against Iran but were holding back because of "the hesitancy of Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice."

Makes one wonder exactly how much damage Rice is capable of.

This story was picked up by The Jerusalem Post and circulated widely. Reportedly, Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon of late -- clearly instigated by Iran -- reinforced the inclination within the US administration to attack. Bush was said to be of the opinion that "the disease must be treated - not its symptoms."

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But now Bush has moved to squash this report , which probably should never have seen the light of day.

A statement has been released saying that "[the US] remain[s] opposed to Iran's ambitions to obtain a nuclear weapon. To that end, we are working to bring tough diplomatic and economic pressure on the Iranians to get them to change their behavior and to halt their uranium enrichment program.

"As the President has said, no president of the United States should ever take options off the table, but our preference and our actions for dealing with this matter remain through peaceful diplomatic means. Nothing has changed in that regard."

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I'm going to make a guess here and say that there was truth in the report from Army Radio but that Bush would rather not publicly appear to be going the military route or to be at odds with members of his administration. He has taken no options off the table and his months in office are limited.

Let's give him the encouragement that might help move him in the right direction: I ask you to contact the president.

In a brief and to-the-point message let him know that you support him in taking all necessary measures to stop Iran from going nuclear -- that the world now depends on his courage to act as necessary -- that you know he understands that Iran absolutely cannot be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons.

As a final reinforcement, let him know that his preventing the disaster of a nuclear Iran will be a blessing to all the world and absolutely the greatest legacy of his presidency.

Use your own words , please.

Remember that a phone call or fax is best.

As always, numbers count, so please ask everyone you can to participate here.

President George Bush

Fax: 202-456-2461

White House Comment line: 202-456-1111 TTY/TDD Comment line: 202-456-6213

email: comments@whitehouse.gov

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A rare moment of truth. Palestinian Media Watch has provided a translation of a piece written by Palestinian journalist Jawad Al Bashiti inAl-Ayyam on May 13, 2008, with reference to "Nakba" -- the "catastrophe" of the founding of Israel, which is allegedly responsible for the refugee situation.

Wrote Bashiti:

"The reasons for the Palestinian Catastrophe are the same reasons that have produced and are still producing our Catastrophes today. During...the Palestinian Catastrophe the following happened: the first war between Arabs and Israel had started and the 'Arab Salvation Army' came and told the Palestinians: 'We have come to you in order to liquidate the Zionists and their state. Leave your houses and villages, you will return to them in a few days safely. Leave them so we can fulfill our mission [to destroy Israel] in the best way and so you won't be hurt.' It became clear already then, when it was too late, that the support of the Arab states was a big illusion. Arabs fought as if intending to cause the 'Palestinian Catastrophe.'"

This refutes charges that Jews forced Arabs out of the land.

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A terrorist attack of major proportions was averted today when a Palestinian going through a checkpoint was found to have four pipe bombs on his person. He was shot dead when he attempted to detonate them.

Evidence, once again, of the need for checkpoints. The checkpoint where this happened -- Hawara -- is one where there have been multiple incidents.

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At the northern end of our border with Gaza , the IDF caught gunmen attempting to plant explosives at the fence, and took them down.

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The police have announced that Olmert will be questioned again on Friday.

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Let me begin with a link to my latest report on Fatah as moderate. No, this is not the glimmer of hope, although you can perhaps help expand that glimmer by sharing this information with those who still need to "get it":

http://israelbehindthenews.com/pdf/FatahModerate.pdf

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As to the glimmer:

As more people are seeing the government as just too shaky and vulnerable to function properly, there is increased talk of the possibility of elections -- with the move to go to elections happening either during the summer Knesset session (which is just starting) or the winter session.

Likud faction chairman Gideon Sa'ar expressed hope that "for the good of the state, it will be in this session, because it is impossible to maintain a stable government under the current conditions.

"If we can actually push the government to elections, that will be enough of an achievement for us during this session. We plan to act to widen the cracks within the coalition, and will work to shorten the term of this government and to get elections before the end of 2008."

While MK Zevulun Orlev (NU-NRP) observed that "I really hope that there are coalition parties like Labor that will demonstrate that they are more concerned about Israeli democracy and the public's faith in the government than about furthering their own political careers.

"...the topic of elections and instability will lie just under the surface during every hearing about every subject. It simply cannot be that this kind of government can be responsible for life-and-death decisions."

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As for the major coalition faction, Labor, there is movement in the same direction, although perhaps a bit more slowly.

MK Danny Yatom is reported to have held a Labor gathering at his home, at which Barak, party chair, said that elections would likely be held at the end of this year or the beginning of 2009. He said they had to keep their cool and that there was no reason to rush, but that people were beginning to take it all seriously and it was becoming obvious that early elections would be held.

Yatom observed, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that "With all the suspicions against [Olmert] the public's trust in him has been completely shattered. Since the public cannot be replaced, the prime minister must be replaced."

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Olmert, of course, is telling members of his Kadima party that they must all stay unified. He shouldn't count on it. As the mood shifts, there are likely to be defections. Even now, several party members held a meeting that they termed a "conceptual forum" -- in order to decide where they were going.

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Now, you may be wondering if this talk of elections coming perhaps at the end of the year means that Olmert will not be indicted before then (assuming that he will be indicted). It's an important question.

The investigation is forging ahead. Olmert's lawyers are fighting for all they're worth to prevent Talansky from testifying before an indictment -- claiming that it would infringe on Olmert's basis rights. The State prosecutor, Moshe Lador, is insistent that Talansky must testify -- that this is not an unusual procedure and that it can be done in a manner that is appropriate within the law.

Meanwhile, Olmert is demonstrating a distinct reluctance to answer more questions. So matters are plugging along.

What had at first promised to be a speedy event is now slowing down to a process of some many weeks or even months. We are reminded that it remains in Attorney General Mazuz's hands to decide exactly when to indict (even if it is decided that indictment is the way to go).

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Just a brief note here regarding some political matters. Once Avigdor Lieberman pulled his party out of the coalition some months ago, the majority Olmert was working with was reduced. What has now threatened to reduce it even further, down to 64 seats (with 61 required) is a potential split within the Pensioners party. The smaller the majority the easier to find sufficient number of defectors to bring it all down. But the Pensioners split, which was thought to be a done deal, is now in question with regard to its legality, as those splitting were going to join with millionaire Arkady Gaydemak, who had pledged money to get them going because he wanted a party base.

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A barrage of Kassams was launched at Ashkelon to day and one narrowly missed what is being called "a strategic site." (Better if those doing the launching are not helped by news reports that tell precisely what they almost succeeded in doing.)

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And still there are the mixed messages regarding what is happening with Hamas:

According to Haaretz, Barak, who is headed to Egypt, is prepared to tell Mubarak that we'll accept an unofficial ceasefire that comes about slowly, with a cessation of Israeli military operations if the rocket launchings cease, with the blockade of Gaza then lifted if progress is made on Shalit.

According to this version of the situation , Israel has softened just a bit on the matter of what terrorists to release in a Shalit deal, with a readiness to release some with blood on their hands, while Hamas is still demanding terrorists who were involved in "mass casualty" terror attacks.

What is extremely troublesome here is that there is no clear stipulation about the cessation of weapons smuggling being a necessary component of our readiness stop operations: "Israel will also try to get Egypt to step up efforts to stop weapons from being smuggled into Gaza" just isn't good enough! What is more, this is a backtracking from what had been said previously.

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What Haaretz is reporting is this:

"Government officials are slowly coming to realize that a large-scale military operation in Gaza does not serve Israeli interests right now.

"It appears from talks which Olmert and senior cabinet ministers held recently with representatives of the Bush administration and key European Union states that Israel will not have international support if it organizes an assault on Gaza now. However, Israeli sources said they think if it turns out, in a few weeks or months, that the cease-fire has failed because of Hamas, the U.S. and some European states might be more understanding about an attack."

This is how the government operates? Making decisions on whether to protect Israeli citizens dependant upon whether the international community will understand?

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With all of this, it is being said that Barak, Olmert and Livni are all skeptical about the chances for a long term quiet with Hamas.

"The Israel Defense Forces will receive an order to begin an operation only if the Egyptian proposal fails, and Kassam fire from Gaza intensifies to the point of incurring serious losses in the western and northern Negev. As the politicians talk about a cease-fire, the IDF is preparing for the chance that the security situation in the South will worsen."

Intensifies to the point of incurring serious losses? How many lives have to be lost before it's serious?

As Aaron Lerner, director of IMRA, wrote , on this issue: "The Arabs can murder Israelis, but shouldn't overdo it."

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The communities situated near Gaza are working on a PR effort that will push the government to take action against rocket attacks. Every community will donate a portion of its budget to hiring of professional PR persons who will publicize what is taking place in these communities.

More power to them!

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According to Al Quds Al Arabi in London , Abbas is prepared to declare the peace talks a failure. This is because of reports that Olmert has promised Shas that he will permit thousands of apartments to be built in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria. And because Abbas was informed by Europeans that the US does not intend to pressure Israel.

This declaration is supposed to be made in a speech Abbas will give in Ramallah. We shouldn't hold our collective breath.

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Meanwhile, according to YNet, PA negotiator Ahmed Qurei is demanding that the Palestinian state, rather than being demilitarized, have a full regular army (as compared to police). Livni was said to be incensed.

Said an Israeli official: This isn't progress, it's backtracking. Reports of progress in the negotiations are misleading the public."

For some of us, this, too represents a glimmer of hope.

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For those who might like to see a video of Bush's amazing talk in the Knesset:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/05/20080515-1.wm.v.html

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http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/19/may-19-2008-a-glimmer-of-hope.html

For about the 100th time , Mahmoud Abbas has threatened to resign his position as PA president. This time -- at the World Economic Forum at Sharm el-Sheikh -- it's if there's no peace agreement with Israel this year.

"Israel will not have a better partner than the group leading the PLO today, which believes the Palestinian interest is a historic reconciliation with Israel and a Palestinian state alongside it," he said, warning that if there is no agreement, "Israel will find itself with no partner at all."

Actually, that's pretty much where we are now -- with no partner at all. In spite of his attempt to intimidate us -- he says failure of negotiations will return us to "the tragedy of 2000 which followed the failure at Camp David" -- it he who has the most to lose.

We won't return to the terrorist horrors of 2000, because -- unless the government agrees to something totally idiotic regarding a ceasefire in Judea and Samaria -- we are in a far better position with regard to our intelligence and our actions against terrorists than we were eight years ago.

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For a clear vision of just how much of a non-partner Abbas is, you might like to see my latest piece, which discusses his unswerving commitment to "right of return":

http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=B75880CC-3A5D-4E50-AF64-9087407CF2B3

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This has been reinforced by yesterday's statement by Abbas's spokesperson, Nabil Abu Rdeina, that Israel's request that the "right of return" be abandoned serves as an obstacle to negotiations.

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Of course Olmert, who is a master at it , is continuing to offer his own words, words. This time on Gaza Today he told the Cabinet:

"We are very close to a decision point regarding every issue in Gaza. The present situation cannot continue.

"Our hope is that one day the residents of the South will be able to live a tranquil life."

Which day would that be?

~~~~~~~~~~

There were members of the Cabinet who were not satisfied with those words, and expressed anger that until now the Security Cabinet has not even been convened to discuss the way to deal with the situation.

In addition, mayors of communities near Gaza met today and are demanding a meeting with Olmert and with the chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

A great many people have simply had it with the delays.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee was also in the news today in a different context, as 15 members of the committee are demanding that it be convened in special session and that Olmert and Livni report on what is going on with core negotiations with the PA.

In a letter written to Committee Chair, Tzachi Hanegbi, they said they were speaking out because "of concern for the Knesset's position as supervisor of all government activities and out of a sense that the prime minister, unlike his predecessor, is dictating an approach that ignores the committee in everything related to foreign affairs.

"For months, negotiations have been conducted with the Palestinians over issues affecting Israel's existence and future, with no parliamentary oversight. In addition, a negotiations department has been created with dozens of employees. It too does not report to the Knesset and has no parliamentary supervision of its composition, budget and methods of operation."

What can legally be achieved is perhaps questionable as the prime minister has considerable -- many say too much -- latitude. But this certainly is an issue that cries out for public attention, and it does put pressure on Olmert.

Hanegbi, in a radio interview today, said he thought a possible alternative was having the details of negotiations shared only with the secret service subcommittee, as it has a leak-proof record. MK Yuval Steinitz, Hanegbi's predecessor, pushed instead for an overview to be provided to the whole committee, with some details, and only sensitive material to go exclusively to the subcommittee.

~~~~~~~~~~

There are conflicting reports coming from various sources regarding the status of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, mediated by Egypt. To the best of my understanding, the scenario goes something like this:

Egypt's Suleiman, returning from Israel, read the riot act to Hamas and told them that if they didn't include release of Shalit in their terms for the ceasefire, Israel would hit them hard with a major ground action.

And so Hamas appeared to soften, saying they were now considering including Shalit in the deal. However, it's clear when that statement is studied carefully that what is being said is that they'll include him, but they have not softened their demand for close to 300 prisoners to be released by Israel, including some who were directly involved in terrorist acts. Israel, Hamas say, has agreed to the release of only 71.

~~~~~~~~~~

Leaks and small bits of information regarding the Olmert investigation are likewise hard to pin down in all specifics.

Before Talansky is called to testify in court in a week, Olmert's lawyers are to be given information on what they have regarding the case, so that they can cross-examine Talansky. The police, however, are eager to question Olmert again before turning information over to his lawyers. That's the only way to insure that Olmert's answers, when questioned, will be spontaneous and not planned out according to what it is suspected the police are seeking. There has been no response from Olmert, however, on where or when he would be available for such questioning. Needless to say, he is less than eager to participate.

Talansky's lawyer is saying that his bond to Israel is such that there should be no question about his returning to testify, if needed, after he goes back to the US. The police, however, are not relying on any such assurances, especially as he is suspected of participating in illegal actions. Right now Talansky is being kept in the country, but by the end of the month his lawyers will be petitioning the court to allow him to go. Thus, time is of the essence here.

There is also talk about evidence of yet another charge of bribery against Olmert, this one having nothing to do with Talansky.

~~~~~~~~~~

The threat of civil war, which seemed so imminent , cooled down in Lebanon last week, as the Lebanese government rescinded anti-Hezbollah measures that had triggered the violence and Hezbollah pulled out of Beirut. The Arab League then stepped in to do negotiations. But those negotiations are stopped dead in Qatar now, as Hezbollah refuses to surrender weapons.

Make no mistake about it: Hezbollah was the big winner here, and I offer Caroline Glick's assessment of how this is so, and why Hezbollah didn't simply overthrow the government when it was in control in Beirut:

"...one of the main advantages that insurgents have over the governments they seek to overthrow is their lack of responsibility for governance. Far from seeking to govern the local population, the goal of insurgents is simply to demonstrate through sabotage, terror and guerrilla operations that the government is incapable of keeping order.

"...Nasrallah and his Iranian bosses have no interest in taking on responsibility for Lebanon. They don't want to collect taxes. They don't want to pick up the garbage or build schools and universities.

"Hezbollah and its Iranian overlords wish to have full use of Lebanon as a staging area for attacks against Israel and the US. They wish to maintain and expand Hezbollah's arsenals. For this they need unfettered access, and if necessary, control over Lebanon's borders, its seaports and airport.

"They need to raise and train Hezbollah's army and cultivate Hezbollah's loyal cadres among Lebanon's Shi'ites to fight Israel...

"Over the past week, Hezbollah secured this freedom through its successful attack on the Saniora government. Today no one will utter a peep of complaint as Hezbollah imports ever more sophisticated weapons systems from Syria and Iran. No one will say a word when Hezbollah openly asserts control over the border with Israel, or places its commanders in charge of Lebanese army units along the border."

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668650022&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

~~~~~~~~~~

A poll just carried out by the Maagar Mohot Survey Institute indicates that 56% of Israelis would prefer that the government continue war against Hamas and 33% that a deal be reached. 51% think a large scale ground operation should be launched and 49% think the Hamas leaders should be physically destroyed.

http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/18/may-18-2008-words-words.html

For all his confusion, his desire to see us pull back so that Abbas can have a state that is not "Swiss cheese," President Bush came through yesterday in his address to the Knesset, for which he has been much praised:

"The Jewish people endured the agony of the pogroms, the tragedy of the Great War, and the horror of the Holocaust...Soulless men took away lives and broke apart families. Yet they could not take away the spirit of the Jewish people, and they could not break the promise of G-d.

".....What followed was more than the establishment of a new country. It was the redemption of an ancient promise given to Abraham and Moses and David -- a homeland for the chosen people: Eretz Yisrael.

As he spoke of a US-Israel relationship "grounded in the shared spirit of our people, the bonds of the Book, the ties of the soul," many lamented the lack of such words from our own leaders.

~~~~~~~~~~

What did Olmert talk about:

"This visit provided another important opportunity for us to discuss the advancement of a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in accordance with your vision, Mr. President, of two states for two peoples. Your personal involvement, and the commendable efforts of the Secretary of State, Ms. Condoleezza Rice, is vital for the success of the intensive negotiations taking place between us and the Palestinians."

~~~~~~~~~~

Bush, rooted solidly in his own religious tradition , is able to speak words unabashedly and easily that Israeli leaders, in the main, are not comfortable with. We have not moved past our trauma, we are too eager to be accommodating (fawning), and, sadly, still too unsure yet of who we are and what rights accrue to us.

~~~~~~~~~~

There were a handful of members of the Knesset who walked out as Olmert spoke. And there was anger because he assured Bush that this body, this Knesset, would approve a peace agreement when it came. He has no right to speak in the names of the MKs, and in fact would face considerable opposition.

~~~~~~~~~~

Haaretz is saying that people from Olmert's office believe that Bush might carry out an operation against Iran in the coming months. They report themselves well satisfied with Bush's attitude in private talks on the subject. Excellent, if so.

~~~~~~~~~~

But at any rate, the Bush visit is over now, and it's back to business (and, thank goodness, Jerusalem traffic unencumbered by the jams caused by security).

Defense officials are saying that once Bush leaves (today) there will be a military escalation in Gaza.

What is of note is that even though several other top IDF officials have been pushing for a major operation in Gaza, until now Chief of Staff Ashkenazi has been reluctant. One cannot help but wonder what the political considerations were, for it is his head that would roll if things went sour. But now, with the attacks that have come in the last week, reports are that he is more inclined to recommend a ground incursion deep into Gaza.

With this all, I still retain my "wait and see" stance. For Barak is due to go into Egypt this coming week and will discuss that ceasefire -- a ceasefire that Olmert may still be inclined to accept. Olmert himself is scheduled to go to Egypt the week after.

~~~~~~~~~~

The barrage continues. Last night three Kassam fell in Sderot, one on a synagogue.

~~~~~~~~~~

The two-year old girl who was injured by the Katyusha in Ashkelon, had been lying unconscious in the hospital. Now the glad news is that Tair Afgin has regained consciousness, although she still requires surgery to remove shrapnel from her head.

The child's father, Adi, told YNet that the family would not even consider relocating to a different city. “We’ll go back to Ashkelon for now. The city needs our support. We don’t believe running away is the solution...It only encourages terrorism."

It is because of such people of courage that we will win.

~~~~~~~~~~

The High Court has rejected the request of Olmert that he be permitted to appeal the decision allowing court testimony to be taken from Talansky before the indictment on Olmert has been served. The testimony will be taken in 9 days.

~~~~~~~~~~

Much more after Shabbat. I close with a link to a site that provides a glowing picture of Israeli scientific achievements in 2008 (with thanks to Micki Lewis for calling my attention to this):

http://www.perspectives.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=175077&forum_id=90

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http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/16/may-16-2008-irony.html

The Nakba is the purported "catastrophe" for the Arabs brought on by the founding of Israel. They have been "commemorating" the 60th Nakba for some days now, but today is the official day, when thousands are marching in Judea and Samaria, Gaza and Lebanon. Sirens have sounded and thousands of black balloons, signifying mourning, have been released.

Where Palestinians rallying close to the Gaza crossings became rowdy, IDF troops -- which were watching in anticipation of threatened trouble -- released tear gas and shot live bullets in the air.

This "commemoration" will continue tomorrow.

The true nakba, of course, is the failure of the Palestinian Arab community to accept our existence as a Jewish state, and to make peace with us.

~~~~~~~~~~

Mahmoud Abbas spoke today at a rally , and he spoke, ostensibly, on behalf of peace. "After 60 years, I say again that our hands our extended for peace, that is our strategic choice."

Sounds great, until you examine his words and associated actions more closely.

For Abbas also said:

"Israel has failed in wiping out the memory of the Nakba from the minds of successive Palestinian generations. They [Israel] thought that perhaps the elderly would forget. But today we see that neither the elderly nor the young have forgotten. Everyone remembers the Nakba."

The reason they haven't forgotten the Nakba, of course, is because of the policies promoted by UNRWA for 60 years. The UN High Commission for Refugees -- which cares for all refugees in the world except Palestinians -- promotes a policy of getting refugees settled in a new permanent life quickly, which means sometimes settling them in a new country if they cannot return home.

But UNRWA has declared for all of these years that Palestinians who left the founding state of Israel are to be considered refugees -- even if they have new citizenship and have succeeded in their lives in other ways -- until they and their children and grandchildren "return" to Israel. For 60 years, the Palestinian "refugees" have been kept in legal and emotional limbo and told that their inability to get on with their lives is Israel's fault.

~~~~~~~~~~

I quite assure you that the promotion of return was not for peaceful purposes. It was designed quite openly as a way to destroy Israel from within. Were -- G-d forbid -- 4.5 million Palestinians who call themselves refugees, a vast number of whom have been radicalized, to enter Israel, it would finish us as a Jewish state.

And so, if Abbas talks Nakba even as he talks peace , what is it that he truly has in mind?

He speaks about stopping the growth of settlements and building in eastern Jerusalem, which he says destroys the hope of peace. The implication is that were we to withdraw to the Green Line, there could be peace.

But the Nakba mourns the founding of the state WITHIN the Green Line. Yet, he doesn't say that it's time to release this mourning and to enter a new day, with building of a state at Israel's side. He promotes the Nakba.

~~~~~~~~~~

And here is the clincher: He, along with other Palestinians at the rally, signed a document today that pledges to continue the "struggle" until all of the refugees have been permitted to return. This is reliable information, as it comes from Khaled Abu Toameh of the Post.

There is a wealth of material that gives evidence to the fact that Abbas is not a partner for peace. But every now and then some incident arises that makes the case so blatantly, so strongly, that no other documentation is needed.

Abbas's signing of this document is such an incident . He is not promoting a two-state solution, but rather Israel's destruction as a Jewish state. What is more, the term "struggle" is a euphemism for terrorism and violence. He is not even promoting the return of all refugees via peaceful means.

~~~~~~~~~~

I would like to point out that, although I believe Abbas, himself, truly does favor "return," he would have no option other than to support it in any event. The Palestinian political discourse is being set by Hamas -- that discourse has radicalized over the last few years with the growing influence of Hamas. If Abbas values his life (quite literally), he cannot promote compromise on this issue.

~~~~~~~~~~

This information needs to be shoved under the faces of both Bush and Olmert, who, in spite of all the evidence, continue to promote the notion that peace arrived at via compromise with the Palestinians is possible now.

I wrote yesterday about the Bush plan to get us to agree to contiguous borders for a Palestinian state -- borders satisfactory to Abbas, which would then encourage him to modify his stance on refugees, which is considered the "hot" issue. Abbas's actions today expose the nonsense inherent in this plan.

While Olmert, for his part, has his own new plan , in which the control of Jerusalem (which is identified by him as the most problematic issue) would be tabled until later, while all of the other issues were negotiated first. What we see, however, is that the issue of refugees is not about to be negotiated away.

What we see, in fact, is that attempting to negotiate a Palestinian state, with resolution of all of these issues, is simply an impossibility.

~~~~~~~~~~

The Jerusalem Post has an editorial today , "Is it about borders?" that I recommend. It details the history of our relationship with the Palestinians and what they've rejected over the years, making it clear that indeed borders is not the issue. This is an answer to Bush, and his suggestion that if we decide on those borders all the rest will fall into place.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668636834&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

~~~~~~~~~~

I'm going to pass at this point on further discussion of the Olmert investigation. It is still very much ongoing. But it becomes tedious to continue to focus on the minutiae of who was questioned, who accused whom of what, etc. etc. As there are major happenings, I will share.

~~~~~~~~~~

More talk without sufficient action. Barak has told the people of Ashkelon, "You guys need to bite your lips, but not for [long]." What that really means, is anyone's guess. There are those who believe that even in the face of all that has transpired, this government will find excuses as to why it's not the "right time" for a major operation.

All we've seen in response to what happened yesterday is the IDF targeting of one rocket launching cell, which killed two people.

~~~~~~~~~~

Alex Fishman, writing an opinion piece in YNet addresses this pathetic pattern of behavior:

"The truth is they [government officials] fear yet another military failure, lack of consensus, and commissions of inquiries. They recognize the need [for military action in Gaza] but easily give in to excuses. They’re watching their behinds.

"So...tomorrow morning, or maybe in two days they will do something in order to placate public opinion. They will explain to us that it cannot go on...that we’re reaching the moment of decision, and all the other clichés. Yet in a few days they will find another convenient excuse for restraint: ...we must not undermine Egypt’s president, Lebanon is burning, etc. This is not how a state should be managed. It looks more like a political science seminar rather than a government that knows what it wants."

And Fishman even has ideas about what might be done, short of an all-out invasion of Gaza, that would be more effective:

"As of Wednesday night, the Air Force should have been operating across the Strip against known targets, without a time limit. It should have been operating in a way that Thursday, Nakba Day, nobody in Gaza would have dared be outside. Hamas government offices, positions, and warehouse should be flying in the air. Hamas leaders, instead of delivering speeches today, should fear for their lives."

If only someone were listening.

~~~~~~~~~~

More pertinent still, is anyone listening to IDF Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin?

He has now told Haaretz that Hamas now has in its possession several dozen rockets capable of striking targets in a radius of 20 kilometers.

"...every community within a 40-kilometer range may come within range of the Hamas rockets: Ashdod, Kiryat Gat, even Beersheba....

"If this matter is not dealt with , Hamas will bring more cities within its range of fire."

~~~~~~~~~~

At least we have rejected a request conveyed to the Ministry of Defense by Rice flunky, I mean American security coordinator, Lt.-Gen. Keith Dayton that PA security forces receive personal armor kits, night-vision goggles and electronic communication systems. This is because it would come too close to establishing parity between our security forces and theirs -- we must retain superiority.

However, there is consideration being given to turning security over to the PA in Tulkarm, Kalkilya and Hebron, if the experiment in Jenin, which was the brainchild of Tony Blair, is successful. There have been 600 troops, trained in Jordan, put in place in the Jenin area, with 400 more to follow. The IDF retains over-all coordination, and the right to go in after a "smoking gun."

"In other cases, Israel will transfer the names of wanted men to the PA security forces, and if the PA forces do not arrest those wanted, the IDF will be able to do so."

Defense officials said the PA forces were enforcing law and order but could not (yet?) be depended upon to go after terrorists.

~~~~~~~~~~

Let me close with an extraordinary piece that talks about the fact that "by objective measures, Israel is the happiest nation on earth.

"...most remarkable is that Israelis appear to love life and hate death more than any other nation."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE13Ak01.html

~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/15/may-15-2008-nakba.html

The entire situation here.

Many things that call for discussion can be put aside until tomorrow. I would like here to touch only upon the most intolerable elements of our situation.

~~~~~~~~~~

President Bush arrived this morning, bringing with him (incredibly!) a contingent of 100 prominent American Jews, all of whom seem to think it's just peachy keen that the president is promoting those "peace negotiations" with Abbas.

Bush was, of course, welcomed with the most lavish praise from the heads of our government. And Bush, for his part, expressed great admiration for us and pledged undying friendship.

~~~~~~~~~~

It is important, however, to take a closer look at what Bush has said, and what he is advocating.

He has a plan, you see: He thinks that we need to set our borders once and for all, and that this will help move things along. The borders? Well, you can't give the Palestinians "Swiss cheese" for a state and expect them to be happy. If we're going to make those Palestinians happy, they have to be offered a contiguous state.

And what of the Bush commitment to our retention of major settlement blocs, presumably incorporated into the letter he had written to Sharon? As Post editor David Horovitz wrote, after interviewing Bush: "On borders, Swiss cheese trumps a 4-year old letter."

Horovitz reports that Bush said: "We... try to make sure that the Palestinians understand that we believe in the contiguous state...How can you have a hopeful place if you're not really in charge of a contiguous territory?... It won't be a viable state."

~~~~~~~~~~

Just the other day I wrote about how sometimes I report on a situation, and how, almost before my eyes, it will metamorphose into something else. It's not long since Abbas came back from his meeting with Bush very depressed because he learned that the president wasn't going to push us on the settlements. Then I wrote that just possibly Bush would come through on his commitment given to Sharon.

How does that dovetail with what Bush is saying now? Not terribly well. Many analysts see Rice's influence here.

But there's more to the plan. Once Abbas is happy about those borders, it is reasoned, he may be willing to compromise on the issue of "right of return."

Unfortunately, Rice has a short memory , because (as I reported here) not long ago Jordan's King Abdullah warned her that if Abbas were pushed into a compromise such as this, his life would be in danger. Abbas, even if he wanted to, does not have the latitude to give away what the Palestinians see as a key "right." Hamas is breathing down his neck.

~~~~~~~~~~

Bush made a statement today about US loyalty to Israel. In part, it went like this: "...we will stand with Israel against the nuclear threat." And I ponder what that means. To me it sounds like: You take care of it, and we'll be right behind you. The only tolerable statement would be one that pledges in simple terms not to let Iran go nuclear.

~~~~~~~~~~

We endured another terrorist attack today. This was a Grad Katyusha, shot at a shopping mall in Ashkelon. Fifteen were wounded, including three seriously, when a part of the roof caved in. Among those seriously injured were a mother and her three-year old daughter.

Intolerable indeed!

This was surely timed by terrorists (Islamic Jihad claimed credit) for Bush's visit. In several places, including in Judea and Samaria, there were protests at Bush's coming to celebrate our independence.

~~~~~~~~~~

Olmert was just concluding a meeting with Bush when the attack occurred. Olmert's subsequent comment was not easy to swallow:

"We will not be able to tolerate continuous attacks on innocent civilians. We hope we will not have to act against Hamas in other ways with the military power that Israel hasn't yet started to use in a serious manner in order to stop it."

We will not be able to tolerate? We have BEEN tolerating, shamefully. We hope we won't have to act? What kind of nonsensical, empty threat is that? We must act. And note: military power that Israel hasn't yet started to use in a serious manner. In the name of all those suffering under the rocket barrages, I ask, and why not??

Channel two cited an unnamed Israeli official as saying, "We are on a certain path of an extensive military confrontation with Hamas." So, when already?

Information is that the IDF is ready and only awaits political go-ahead.

~~~~~~~~~~

And this, heaven help us , was Bush's comment on the attack:

"We believe that the surest way to defeat the enemies...is to advance the cause of hope, the cause of freedom, liberty as the great alternative to tyranny and terror."

Will someone please tell this man that the only way to defeat tyranny and terror is by defeating it, not by bringing "hope." Once upon a time, he seemed to know this.

~~~~~~~~~~

And the last intolerable of this report:

In a conference in the Egyptian parliament , Egyptian Culture Minister Farouk Hosni is reported to have said that he "would burn Israeli books himself if found in Egyptian libraries."

This is going to put a considerable strain on our relationship with Egypt.

~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/14/may-14-2008-intolerable.html

I can only report the information as it comes to me. But sometimes I take a look at the news and am startled at how different it seems from what I shared just 24 hours ago, or less.

Yesterday Olmert and Barak were reported as telling Suleiman that the deal for a ceasefire with Hamas was insufficient and not acceptable as is. Today, the whole story sounds different, as it is being reported that Israel is leaning towards that ceasefire -- to be instituted slowly.

The words of Mark Regev, Olmert's spokesman, perhaps tell the story: "Israel cannot continue to tolerate the daily barrage of rockets, so either the attacks will cease or Israel will have to stop them. We don't have a great desire to escalate in the south, and if it is possible to achieve calm, that is obviously our preference."

Actually, it is not so obvious, because this solution is short-sighted. Hamas will be strengthening and there will be a price to pay for this quiet down the road.

Be that as it may, apparently there will be no military response to the lethal attack yesterday -- sort of a "good faith" gesture.

~~~~~~~~~~

But even now there are conflicting reports. On the one hand some officials are said to be hopeful that, in the words of one: "If the initiative is successful - it may be the answer to how we block Hamas's growing strength while preventing arms smuggling across the border and furthermore, this could mean good news on the Palestinians' willingness to compromise on the Shalit deal."

This has a very "pie-in-the-sky" feel to it. Hamas is intent on our destruction. The ceasefire, such as it may be, would not be the first step in permanent cessation of hostilities that would lead to peace with Hamas. It is intended by Hamas to be temporary, because right now they're hurting and want to be stronger before they come at us again. This is built into their ideology.

Even if the smuggling is stopped by Egypt -- a stretch in itself -- Hamas has military people who were trained in Iran and who will be training others to make their army stronger, and they are doing refinement and building of weapons inside of Gaza.

~~~~~~~~~~

On the other hand, there are those who believe that Hamas will never agree to compromise on the terms for release of Shalit as part of a ceasefire deal, and that this will give us the out we need. For there is another factor at play here: the government is afraid that Hamas, which is offering the interlude of quiet, will appear "peaceful" while we, refusing to accept it, will appear "warlike." If they refuse on Shalit, we can say that we had good intentions but it was Hamas that did not come through.

And right now this looks like the way things will play out. While, admittedly, Suleiman has not gone back yet to talk with them again, today Hamas is saying that they'll continue to hit us hard unless we agree to the ceasefire, and that there will be no talk about Shalit until after we have agreed to that ceasefire, i.e., it will not be part of the ceasefire deal.

If we agree to a ceasefire without a deal on Shalit, after we had insisted this had to be part of the agreement, we will be showing weakness and surrendering deterrence. Hamas has to sue for quiet, not us.

~~~~~~~~~~

There is a mixed message in another quarter as well. There have been reports indicating that Bush was likely to bring "gifts" with him when he arrives tomorrow. I just reported, for example, on the possibility that we might receive radar more sensitive than what we now have.

US officials, however, are playing down this possibility . While there have been intensive talks in recent months between top Israeli defense officials and the Pentagon and White House, regarding Israeli receipt of cutting edge US equipment -- most notably the F22 stealth bomber that can avoid radar -- in order to maintain Israeli's qualitative military edge and prepare us for dealing with Iran, they are saying Bush won't be closing any deals on his largely ceremonial visit.

Israeli officials continue to be of a different mind.

~~~~~~~~~~

Investigation update: The police, warrant in hand, went into City Hall yesterday afternoon in search of documents from the time that Olmert was mayor.

Talansky has been questioned again , under caution, by the National Fraud Unit. He has already admitted that he gave envelopes filled with cash to Olmert. Now there is consideration going on of favors that Olmert may have done for him: possible rezoning of land for the benefit of Talansky's associates, possible installation of speed bumps in the area where Talansky's son lives, after he complained that traffic was dangerous for his grandchildren. Remember, however, that certain benefits do not have to be proved to make the case for bribe -- the money can be a hedge against the possible need for favors down the road.

I had been under the impression that Talansky was remaining in the country voluntarily, to cooperate, but apparently this is not the case. For now I read that the State may extend the "hold departure order" on him.

Talansky is due to leave the country on May 21. According to Haaretz, investigators are hoping to first do in-depth questioning of Olmert, followed by the early testimony of Talansky, before then. They are concerned that plans for Olmert's travel will interfere with the schedule for questioning him.

~~~~~~~~~~

http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/13/may-13-2008-inconsistencies.html

Prime Minister of Canada, Stephen Harper, delivered a speech for Israel's 60th. It is so extraordinary that I must lead off with this today:

"All of my life, Israel has been a symbol – a symbol of the triumph of hope and faith. After 1945, our battered world desperately needed to be lifted out of post-war darkness and despair. After so much pain and suffering, humanity needed comfort and optimism. After so much death and destruction, we needed renewal – the renewal of the dream of a better and more civilized world. In short, we needed to be inspired. It was the people who had suffered who most provided that inspiration. By their example, they led the world back to the light. From shattered Europe and other countries near and far, the descendants of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob made their way home. Their pilgrimage was the culmination of a two-thousand-year-old dream; it is a tribute to the unquenchable human aspiration for freedom, and a testament to the indomitable spirit of the Jewish people.
"In the sixty years that followed, Israel blossomed into one of the most successful countries on earth; a land of ingenuity and enterprise, an oasis of agricultural genius, a wellspring of fine art and high culture, a model of democracy. Israel truly is the 'miracle in the desert.'

"But the source of Israel’s strength and success , in my view, is its commitment to the universal values of all civilized peoples: freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law...

"Unfortunately, Israel at 60 remains a country under threat – threatened by those groups and regimes who deny to this day its right to exist. And why? Make no mistake; look beyond the thinly-veiled rationalizations: because they hate Israel, just as they hate the Jewish people. Our government believes that those who threaten Israel also threaten Canada, because, as the last world war showed, hate-fuelled bigotry against some is ultimately a threat to us all, and must be resisted wherever it may lurk.

"In this ongoing battle, Canada stands side-by-side with the State of Israel, our friend and ally in the democratic family of nations. We have stood with Israel even when it has not been popular to do so, and we will continue to stand with Israel, just as I have always said we would...

"There will be many challenges along the way , but considering how far Israel has come in such a short time, in the face of such seemingly insurmountable odds, I can foresee no dark force, no matter how strong, that could succeed in dimming the light of freedom and democracy that shines from within Israel."

~~~~~~~~~~

How rare in this highly politicized and twisted world is such unqualified support. Imagine how different our position would be if other world leaders spoke similarly. PM Harper is to be saluted.

~~~~~~~~~~

Ted Belman has posted the entire speech at Israpundit:

http://www.israpundit.com/2008/?p=989

~~~~~~~~~~

What I ask is that you take the time to thank Prime Minister Harper by writing to him at pm@pm.gc.ca .

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As to the Olmert investigation, I begin today by saying that I have never in my life encountered so many innocent people. No one did anything. At least, that is what they are working vigorously to have us believe.

The former director of the New Jerusalem Foundation , Zvi Raviv, for example, expressed bewilderment as to why this non-profit organization, which does good work, should be involved in the investigation at all. Never mind that Olmert and Messer founded it and Talansky was made treasurer. Or that the Post reported eight years ago that there were suspicions about use for campaign purposes of money from this foundation (which had not yet registered in Israel as a non-profit and in 1999 failed to report millions in contributions).

"We support those with special needs, children , and teenagers," said an NJF spokesman. "We fund dance centers, libraries in schools, provide help for the deaf, and holiday food packages." Bringing up the name of the foundation was "unjustified." "The police are not interested in the foundation."

While Talansky gave an interview on Channel 10 TV , in which he said that Olmert asked for campaign donations, just as other Israelis were asking, and that he gave for the pure joy of giving and helping an Israeli candidate. If Olmert asked, he assumed it was legal.

Talansky is adamant that he never bribed Olmert . As to that quote about being afraid something will be done to him because of his testimony, he says they are making a big deal out of what was only an off-hand remark.

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The investigation at this point is reportedly focusing on possible bribery, rather than illegal campaign contributions. What has been discovered is that he took large sums of money while he was minister of industry, trade and labor -- and had no need for campaign funds -- in a time frame around 2005.

The term "soft money" is being bandied about , but I will not attempt to grapple with whatever legal meaning it has here in Israel. In the US it refers, broadly, to political donations made in such a way as to avoid federal regulations or limits.

Here the implication is that rules for what can be accepted from foreign nationals for a campaign did not apply, as Olmert wasn't running for office -- that the money went to Likud and not Olmert, or to pay his previous campaign debts, or towards future campaigns. Remember, the law applies to donations to a candidate in the nine months before an election.

According to Haaretz, an official connected with the investigation explained that: "There's no doubt that Olmert is trying to pull the investigation in a certain direction, of collecting funds for elections."

"But," says the official, "in contrast to the impression Olmert is trying to create, the investigation team is currently focusing precisely on the period when there were no elections, and there was no apparent justification for collecting funds for an election campaign." This official, Haaretz reports, says that the police suspect Olmert of having received envelopes of cash that cannot be accounted for.

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According to another source involved in the probe , who was also cited by Haaretz :

"The investigators are currently focusing on reinforcing suspicions that are relatively easy to verify....They are dealing with the period during which it is possible to unearth findings that will strengthen the suspicions against Olmert...

"During the short period being probed so far , the investigators managed to arrange a cross-checking of sources. There are documents, there's Talansky's testimony, there's Messer's testimony - all these findings reinforce the credibility of the other." All evidence is pointing in the same direction.

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YNet reports that according to Major-General (ret.) Borovsky , who headed the anti-corruption department at the State Comptroller's Office and is familiar with details of the current investigation, an indictment is likely to be served. "The police are acting with determination, professionalism and courage in this case."

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Apparently a deposition will be taken from Talansky.

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But, truly, we probably shouldn't worry about any of this, because we have it straight from President Bush in an interview that ran on Channel 10 here: Olmert, he says, is an "honest man." Translation: I want the peace process to proceed and don't want this stuff to get in the way.

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A Dahaf poll done yesterday for Yediot Ahronot shows that 60% do not believe that Olmert didn't take money (this double negative is how the poll was worded), and 59% think he should resign.

If Livni heads the Kadima party , according to this poll, Kadima would get 27 mandates (seats) and Likud 23. This is bad news for Netanyahu, who's been biding his time, assuming that Likud would win the next election, and for those who are anxious to see Kadima out of power.

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Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman was here, and presented to Olmert and to Barak the proposal worked out with Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Both Barak and Olmert indicated that terms were not acceptable because the return of Gilad Shalit must be included. Additionally, Olmert specified that terms must include cessation of smuggling and arming of terrorist groups.

Suleiman was disgruntled by this Israeli response , after Egypt had worked so hard to establish terms. Suggesting that we are "inflexible," he pushed the notion that the ceasefire had to be accepted first, and then there would be an opportunity to discuss Shalit. But Israeli leaders weren't buying this, and he has no choice but to carry this message back to Hamas.

MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud) made an important point , with this: Release of Shalit, as eager as we all are for it, should not be the cause for our agreeing to a dangerous ceasefire that will result in additional deaths and kidnappings down the road because Hamas will continue to strengthen.

Although Suleiman spoke about a ceasefire leading the way to discussions on Shalit, it's not that simple. There is a standstill on these negotiations because there are certain Hamas prisoners with blood on their hands that our security people refuse to release but that Hamas insists must be released.

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There are those who see Suleiman's visit as a final effort to stop the shooting of Kassams before Israel escalates militarily. Barak made the observation, perhaps relevant, as his meeting with Suleiman ended, that "Israel cannot continue exercising restraint over the ongoing terror from the Gaza Strip." Additionally, Barak was clearly not receptive to the suggestion that after six months of quiet in Gaza there would be efforts to extend the ceasefire to Judea and Samaria.

Olmert, however, is scheduled to meet with Mubarak , precisely when is unclear. This had been agreed to weeks ago.

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This evening an elderly woman who had come to visit at Moshav Yesha, near Gaza, was killed when a Kassam hit the house where her family lived. Islamic Jihad has claimed credit.

Earlier today two Grad Katyushas hit Ashkelon.

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http://www.arlenefromisrael.info/current-postings/2008/5/12/may-12-2008-inspiration.html