Arlene from Israel

February 10, 2012: Whither Unity?

2012-02-10T10:10:21Z

A brief posting today, before Shabbat, focused on Hamas and the "reconciliation" with Fatah. As predicted, it is shaky at best, and by the time I write again who knows how the situation will have shifted.

Word is coming from multiple sources now indicating great dissatisfaction with the agreement on the part of Hamas leaders in Gaza. Apparently, which was not what I was reading at first, Haniyeh is among those voicing objections.

The key source of those objections is the fact that Abbas will be prime minister of the interim unity government. This, they point out, contravenes Palestinian Authority Basic Law, because Abbas is president and one person is not permitted to hold both positions. In fact, this principle was written into the law because Arafat had absolute power; this was a move to mitigate that power and, ironically, Abbas was a key figure in pushing for that adjustment. Abbas, it should be noted, already has enormous power as head of the PLO and Fatah -- in addition to being president of the PA.

And so, there are questions as to how well this new unity agreement will be held up. Very little is certain when it comes to the very volatile Palestinian Arab politics.

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Khaled Abu Toameh, writing in the JPost yesterday, indicated that while a Gaza faction -- which consists of many of the movement’s prominent leaders and legislators -- objected to the agreement, Hamas leaders in Judea and Samaria issued a statement supporting it. This, says Abu Toameh, represents a split in Hamas that is more public than anything seen to date.

Those supporting the agreement, even while conceding that it may conflict with PA Basic Law, see it as a vehicle for the more important goal of bridging the gap with Fatah. They are not concerned because Abbas as interim prime minister would be charged with nothing more than arranging for elections and working on building in Gaza. Abu Toameh reported on this attitude among some members of Hamas, as did Yonaton Halevi, writing for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (http://www.jcpa.org/). Hamas activists and officials certainly don't truly see Abbas as a leader, and expect to move beyond this situation to one that is more advantageous for them.

Halevi refers to this agreement as "Opening the Gates to the Trojan Horse," as it is "intended to enable Hamas’ official entry into the PLO in the framework of new elections for the Palestinian National Council and to pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections." Clearly, Hamas has confidence it will win those elections.

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The first question, then, is how serious the Gaza Hamas officials opposed are with regard to their objections. Will there be a split in Hamas, as some are suggesting? Or, we can turn this around -- will the threat of a split cause Hamas to abandon the agreement?

From the point of view of Abbas, an agreement with a truncated Hamas that does not include Gaza would be worthless. His major point to the international community, when defending this agreement as "a necessary step towards peace," is that the "people" would then be united. But if they were not united and yet Hamas garnered further control in his domain of Judea and Samaria. Oy v'voy, as we say. But that won't happen. Hamas aside, Abbas would not let this happen.

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One other item of news to be factored in here is that Mashaal and his Hamas politburo leadership have found a home: Qatar. Not exactly a surprise. The Doha Declaration, which is based on an earlier agreement reached in Egypt, was forged under the patronage of the emir of Qatar, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani

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And so now we wait and see...

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The Zionist Organization of America has put out a release that expresses expressed dismay and chagrin "that major American Jewish organizations like the Anti-Defamation League, the American Jewish Committee, AIPAC, Bnai Brith, the Orthodox Union and others have not issued statements condemning the Fatah/Hamas unity government agreement reached in Doha in recent days...Hamas calls in its Charter for the destruction of Israel (Article 15) and the murder of Jews (Article 7), and has launched over 10,000 missiles on Israeli civilians."

President Morton Klein said, "At a minimum, these organizations should be condemning this development, which demonstrates starkly the falsity of the Fatah /PA as a peace partner for Israel and conspicuously exposes the true face of the PA’s goals and
ideology, which has always been – whether under Arafat or Abbas – to destroy Israel and murder its Jewish population."

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http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/2/10/february-10-2012-whither-unity.html

February 7, 2012: The Trees...

2012-02-07T20:56:35Z

It pleases me to begin with mention of Tu B'Shvat, which starts tonight. A holiday with religious significance in the Mishnah (as the "New Year of the Trees" with regard to how years are calculated for harvest of fruit), Tu B'Shvat has become very much an Arbor Day here in modern Israel: a day for the honoring and the planting of trees, as well as a day for eating the fruit of the tree -- especially the Biblical fruits, grapes, figs, pomegranates, olives and dates.

We have been blessed this year with more rain than we've had for several years -- rain which still continues. Because of this the landscape is so very green. And, as is expected, the earliest of the blossoming trees, the almond, has begun to flower -- the harbinger of spring.

Source: Yael Ruder

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How much more lovely to speak of almond blossoms than Fatah and Hamas, but that's our focus now:

Khaled Abu Toameh has reported in the JPost that Fatah and Hamas have reached a unity agreement. This reconciliation accord, signed by Mahmoud Abbas and Khaled Mashaal, is being referred to as the "Doha Declaration" -- it was mediated by the government of Qatar in Doha.

Under its terms, Abbas -- currently functioning as president of the PA, although his term has expired -- will be the interim prime minister of a government consisting of "independent figures." There is no mention of whether Salam Fayyad, whom Hamas has consistently opposed and Abbas has just as consistently promoted, will play a role.

The primary function of this government is to prepare for presidential and parliamentary elections and rebuild Gaza. No date has been set for elections, which might be held as soon as in 90 days, or not until later in the year.

Other issues addressed include the release of "activists" on both sides, opening of closed institutions, lifting of travel bans, and permitting members of Fatah to return to their homes in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, which they had fled.

Abbas and Mashaal have agreed to hold a meeting of the (recently selected temporary) leadership of various Palestinian groups on the 18th of this month in Cairo. At that time, implementation of the agreement is to be discussed, as well as incorporation of Hamas into the PLO. After that meeting, the full interim government will be announced.

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That's as it is planned now. But the 18th is still 11 days away. And since not everyone in Fatah and Hamas is on board with this accord, it remains to be seen what the ultimate result will be. Both Abbas and Hamas must still convince their respective party members that the agreement is a desirable one. Abu Toameh, in a separate JPost piece, cites Palestinians who think this accord may yet lead to splits in both Fatah and Hamas.

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My own initial response, on reading about this agreement, was astonishment at the willingness of Hamas to allow Abbas to hold the position of interim prime minister in the newly agreed-upon government. I am convinced that there was a time when this could not have happened. As I followed prior Fatah-Hamas accords and attempts to reach agreements, it was consistently my observation that Hamas called the shots and Fatah acceded.

Its current willingness to provide the head of Fatah with a key position signals the weakening status of Hamas: This group has lost its funding and walked away from its headquarters in Damascus. No other nation has yet agreed to take them in -- not Egypt nor Jordan nor Turkey; they are said to feel that relocation in Gaza would render them too vulnerable to Israeli attack. Politburo leaders seem to be wandering the area.

My guess would be that Mashaal, at least, sees an accord with Fatah as strengthening Hamas's hand and its base. I will note that one immediate advantage is the release of Hamas people being held in PA prisons -- Abbas has announced the release of 64 such persons. There have already been reports from the IDF regarding increased Hamas activity in Judea and Samaria; it has long been the Hamas goal to take over this area, just as it took Gaza. Additionally, I suspect that Hamas officials hope for an enhanced image and increased legitimacy in the international community as a result of this deal. The Hamas aspiration to be in control of the PLO is likely a motivating factor, as well -- a way to boost its power and influence.

But there are Hamas activists and officials -- though Ismail Haniyeh is not among them -- who are furious at the idea of placing Abbas in the position of prime minister.

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Abbas had long played a game of fluctuating between forging a unity government and negotiating a "peace" with Israel -- one day heading in one direction and another day in the opposite. He has come to a dead end on the Jordanian supervised indirect or preliminary talks and declared that he could move no further without specific Israeli concessions. But he is under pressure to continue. Could be that he decided that this was the time to switch gears and shift the dynamic.

At the same time, there are members of Fatah who are not keen to see elections -- a key provision of the accord -- as there is a good likelihood that Hamas will win at the polls. Just as there are members of Fatah not pleased at the prospect of Hamas entry into the PLO.

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Prime Minister Netanyahu has already made it very clear that for the PA it's either negotiations with Israel or an accord with Hamas, but not both. Not that Abbas cares, but it's important to put Israel's cards on the table up front with regard to the international community. Israel cannot be expected to negotiate with a Hamas-affiliated PA or to accord it "confidence-inspiring measures."

In his statement Netanyahu pointed out that Hamas has not accepted the three minimal requirements of the international community: recognizing Israel's right to exist, abandoning terrorism, and accepting previous agreements, but instead "continues to arm itself for even deadlier terrorism."

When I read, as I did today, that an Israel official said that "...this agreement would lead to the end of the peace process," I wanted to ask if he was joking -- if he thought there was a peace process before this agreement. But this is simply part of the way it has to be played (or they imagine it has to be played): See world, we were ready to continue, but Abbas blew it.

At any rate, it has been announced that Israeli work on putting together a package of economic "incentives" to keep the PA talking at a low level has been put on hold. That's quite fine. These "incentives" were, of course, being developed at the behest of the US and the EU.

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The US has no official position yet on this development, as it is still "speculative."

The EU does not have an official position yet either. However, as Abu Toameh points out, at the end of November the EU called for PA reconciliation with Hamas, referring to it as "an opportunity rather than a threat -- an important element for a viable Palestinian state, and essential for securing a lasting peace with Israel." Yes, the EU gives lip service to the three requirements of Hamas, as stated above, but you can see where the Europeans are headed. They would turn themselves into pretzels finding ways to legitimize a unity government.

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Wow! A veritable genius! Dennis Ross, formerly a US Mideast envoy, speaking at the Aspen Institute, said he believes this is not the right time for a final peace agreement between Israel and the PA: "Right now I don't think the contest lends itself very well to producing a permanent status deal."

Consider the state of affairs, if such a common sense observation has to be noted as something special. What he said additionally was that he believed the situation should be regarded from a position of "humility." By which I understand that he thinks those officials making pronouncements about what they can accomplish would be wise to close their mouths.

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Even though the situation is on hold for the moment, I want to call your attention to a cogent analysis by Shoshana Bryen (formerly with JINSA and now with the Jewish Policy Center): "No More 'Peace Talks,' Please."

Bryen points out that the three major assumptions from Oslo have all been proven wrong:
That Palestinian nationalism could be understood as the mirror image of Jewish nationalism (Zionism);
That Palestinian nationalism could find its full expression in a West Bank and Gaza Strip state; and
That there is a price Israel, the United States, and Europe could pay to the Palestinians that would overcome any remaining Palestinian objection to Jewish sovereignty in the region.
http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/2747/no-more-peace-talks-please

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And then, a delightful, although ultimately very serious, piece by Barry Rubin, "When the Moderates are Radicals You're in Trouble."

"I’d like to share with you a secret. Every day I read and hear things by people who claim to be experts on the Middle East. I have read them on the land; I have read them on the sea; I have read them in the air.

"And they will never surrender to reality. Here are the two main causes of error:

"-– They think the Middle East is just like the West so they can extrapolate from their own experience... You are not Arafat or Khomeini or Saddam Hussein or whatever and unless you have some understanding of how they actually think-–and not your own Western pragmatic interpretation of what they should think–-there’s no sense in discussing it.

"-– They think the Middle East is just what they’d like it to be. Peace? Easy. They have a plan. My response: I’d love to hear your plan but I’m all booked up to hear Middle East peace plans for the next three years. I’ll put you on the waiting list and get back to you...

"The Middle East is so strange in Western terms, so different -- having its own unique history and institutions -- that unless you are really aware of those differences please pick something else to be an expert on..."

http://www.gloria-center.org/2012/02/egypt-et-cetera-when-the-moderates-are-radicals-you%e2%80%99re-in-trouble/

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Rubin's piece is about Egypt and you can learn by reading it in its entirety. But I love this introduction because it applies to so much I deal with, so much that I have trouble explaining to people. Judging the world, and in particular the Arab world, by Western standards and principles is a huge mistake.

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http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/2/7/february-7-2012-the-trees.html

February 6, 2012: Another Tightrope Act

2012-02-06T18:16:28Z

US President Obama is eager to avoid a military confrontation with Iran. It is clear that his re-election is on his mind with regard to this. And so, in a very recent CBS interview he said:

"Any kind of additional military activity inside the Gulf is disruptive and has a big effect on us. It could have a big effect on oil prices..."

Ah, oil prices. Increased prices would adversely affect the US economy, would they not? And economic recovery is a linchpin of his campaign.

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But in the same interview, he said that Israel was "rightly" concerned about what will happen with Iran.

Here is his nod to Israel supporters. And he followed this line of thinking with more:

"My number one priority continues to be the security of the United States, but also the security of Israel, and we are going to make sure that we work in lockstep as we proceed to try to solve this, hopefully diplomatically."

Lockstep, my foot. Word is that if we do hit Iran, we won't give the US more than a few hours notice, for reasons that are obvious.

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No question that the president of the US must be concerned with US interests first, but he should not pretend to be concerned with Israeli security when in fact this is not the case: There is a wide divergence between what Israeli leaders know clearly to be in Israel's security interest and what Obama perceives to be in America's best interest.

"Perceives" is the operative word here. What Obama perceives is that the US is best served if he is re-elected, and so, to that end, he'll sacrifice a great deal. Including Israeli security interests.

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But that's just for starters. Because the fact of the matter is that Obama is also prepared to sacrifice what's best for US security for that "greater good" of a win in the election.

He pretends to address this, saying that he doesn't believe that Tehran has the "intentions or capabilities" to attack the United States. Meaning, of course, that it is just Israel's problem.

A fairly incredible statement.

Just days ago, at a world conference on the "Arab Spring," Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Khomeini, told a cheering audience that, "In light of the realization of the divine promise by almighty God, the Zionists and the Great Satan [America] will soon be defeated." The Islamic awakening in the region, he explained has delivered several blows to the enemies of Islam. All Muslims remain united in standing against the "evil hegemony of the Zionists and the Americans."

This is hardly a unique statement from an Iranian leader. The Iranian theme of the US as the "Great Satan" is fairly ubiquitous. So much for Tehran not having intentions of attacking the US.

Obama is a fool to pretend these things are not being said. But he seems to exhibit a particular propensity for blithely ignoring the obvious.

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As to capabilities: Surely Obama knows, just as Israeli military intelligence knows, and the readers of my posts know, that Iran is working on a solid-fuel powered missile that would have sufficient range to reach the US. Not a reality today, but there's always tomorrow. It ill becomes the Americans to be complacent in this regard -- imagining themselves so far away as to be safe from attack.

Besides which, there are other ways for Iran to hit the US: with terrorist attacks inside the country, attacks on US personnel outside the country, and cyber-attacks of some considerable import.

In particular, it behooves the US to take more seriously the growing influence of the Iranian proxy Hezbollah in Latin America.

See "Latin American: Iran's New Front Against the US":

"[On] January 30, 2012, former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) stated that, 'When President Ahmadinejad recently toured the capitals of Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and Ecuador, it was not a form of cultural diplomacy; it was primarily to increase the tempo of preparations for the war against America'.. (Emphasis added)
"In 2007, a[n]...announcement was made by Ahmadinejad about the opening of Iran Air’s new Tehran to Caracas link, except that those flights do not accept open bookings, as transport for entrepreneurs or sightseers surely would. No, these planes are most likely carrying bad actors from the likes of Hezbollah, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Guard’s Quds Force...

"Also considered is the possibility that the Tehran-Caracas flights are being used to transport weapons and Pasdaran – Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) officers – to Venezuela in order to strengthen Chavez’s grip on Venezuela and transform it into a potential threat to the U.S. by installing long range missiles in Venezuela that can reach the U.S..." (Emphasis added)

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/02/06/latin-america-irans-new-front-against-the-u-s/

And so Obama is a fool twice over.

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It has been announced that Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz has chosen Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel to become Commander of the Air Force when Maj. Gen. Ido Nehushtan steps down in April.

Eshel Source: IDF Spokesperson

This announcement has attracted a great deal more attention than would normally be the case because of the role that the commander of the Air Force will play in any attack on Iran.

He would not be charged with making the final decision. However that final decision, to be made at the highest political levels, would depend upon his perception that such an operation is feasible. If the head of the Air Force were to deliver the message that he believes it cannot be done, this would effectively end further discussion. And if the decision is made to go ahead, his role would be pivotal.

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In light of this, I was particularly delighted by the following report on Eshel from the JPost:
"On September 4, 2003, Maj.-Gen. Amir Eshel served as the lead pilot in one of the Israel Air Force’s most memorable missions – a flight over the Auschwitz death camp in Poland.

"Under the agreement with the Polish government, the IAF F-15s were supposed to fly high above Auschwitz, and way out of sight.

"The day of the flight though, Eshel convened the other pilots and announced that they were going to fly below the clouds so they could be seen by the IDF officers who would be holding a ceremony along the train tracks below.

"'We listened to the Polish for 800 years,' Eshel was quoted as telling the other pilots at the time. 'Today, we don’t have to listen anymore.'"

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=256616

Right on! This is the sort of attitude Israel desperately needs today and I find this story reassuring.

See here the video footage of that magnificent flyover at Auschwitz, which includes the broadcast voice of General Eshel pledging from the skies over the death camp that the Air Force of Israel will be the shield of the Jewish people and the State of Israel.

Amen v'amen!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfv3jsLGzL0

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A shift now to another issue.

Recently, Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar announced a program of tours to acquaint students with sites of Jewish heritage. This curriculum had been available to schools in the Jerusalem school district, but was now being provided across the country. In particular, there was a focus on a on-compulsory program called 'Ascending to Hevron," that would bring students to visit the Machpela (the Tomb of the Patriarchs). To date, some 2,000 secular and 1,000 religious high school students have participated.

Now 260 teachers have drafted a letter saying they would refuse to participate in the program for visiting Hevron -- which is in Judea, south of Jerusalem, as "it is a manipulative use of pupils and teachers, who will be forced to become political pawns."

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I find this fascinating. Visiting Hevron is conceptualized as a political act, but refusing to bring students to this ancient site is not?

In point of fact, Hevron transcends politics: It is the most ancient of sites connected to Jewish heritage: mentioned in the Torah, the Machpela belongs to the Jewish people by virtue of its purchase by our father Avraham. But these teachers advocate denying Jewish students exposure to it. I can only assume that they fear that such students, once exposed to this sacred place, might think twice about the propriety of relinquishing "the West Bank" to the Palestinian Arabs.

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Minister Sa'ar is handling this well. Today he told Israel Radio that the only real critique of this program is that it wasn't instituted 40 years ago.

Sa'ar Source: Hebron.com

What he was referring to is the fact that under the eye of a series of left-wing education ministers over the years, the Jewish connection to the land was shamefully denied or downplayed in secular state schools.

There was a time when secular Israelis knew the Tanach (Bible) and understood the connection of our texts and history to the land. Ben Gurion was a quintessential example of this. But thanks in good part to these left-wing ministers, such is no longer the case. It is nothing short of a tragedy that many Israeli young people just don't know.

"I didn't receive any protest letter, their letter was sent to Haaretz to serve their campaign against us," Sa'ar said, "One teacher charged me of Zionist indoctrination. You see? Being Zionist is now an accusation." (Emphasis added)

And so, bravo to Gideon Sa'ar.

I ask you please to send him a very brief note, congratulating him for instituting the program "Ascending to Hevron." Tell him that you support his efforts to teach the Jewish students of the State about Jewish heritage that transcends political issues.

If you are an Israeli citizen, mention this, and forward this to other Israelis who also might contact him. If you are a member of Likud, share that information as well, please.

gsaar@knesset.gov.il

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If you live in or near Jerusalem or plan to be visiting here on February 16, I recommend that you sign up to see the film "Unmasked -- Judeophobia" to be shown at the Cinematheque at 7 PM. The free showing will be complemented by a discussion by an outstanding panel. For more details or to do required registration:

http://www.camera.org/events/#unmasked

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There is news regarding the "reconciliation" of Fatah and Hamas. I continue to view this process with a dubious eye. But now there are some new wrinkles. Hopefully tomorrow we'll look at this.

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http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/2/6/february-6-2012-another-tightrope-act.html

February 4, 2012: How to Figure?

2012-02-04T20:58:13Z

Motzei Shabbat (After Shabbat)

Just days ago, we learned, via what we were told was an accidental slip by Senator Dianne Feinstein, that Mossad officials were in the US for discussions with officials there with regard to Iran.

Then on Thursday, there were two occurrences in tandem. Here in Israel, Defense Minister Barak delivered a forceful speech at the Herzliya Conference that included these statements:

"Today, unlike the past, there is wide global understanding that it is vital to prevent Iran from going nuclear and that no option must be taken off the table. Today, unlike the past, there is wide global understanding that if the sanctions fail to achieve the desired result of stopping the Iranian military nuclear program, there will be a need to consider an operation...
"Today, unlike the past, the world has no doubt that the military nuclear program is steadily nearing ripeness and is about to enter the 'immunity zone.' From that point on, the Iranian regime will be able to act to complete the program, with no effective disturbance and a time that is convenient for it...

"He who says 'later,' may find that it is 'too late.'"

Was he delivering notice to the world? Or letting Iran know that it had better take the threat of a military strike seriously?

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In the US, David Ignatius, in his Washington Post column on the same day, indicated that:

"[US Secretary of Defense] Panetta believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June – before Iran enters what Israelis described as a 'zone of immunity' to commence building a nuclear bomb."

Panetta, when questioned, didn't refute this report -- a report that has a different tone from what we've been hearing.

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What are we seeing here?

Are we to believe that the timing of these two statements (and the mutual allusion to "a zone of immunity"), coming shortly after a meeting on this issue between Israelis and Americans, is merely coincidental? Could it be that the two heads of the defense establishments of their respective nations are on the same page with regard to Israeli intentions?

Or is Panetta seeking to subvert Israeli plans? What sort of business is this -- announcing when it is likely that Israel will strike? A strike is best achieved with an element of surprise. But then again, Barak made it clear that such an attack would have to be soon.

Only questions tonight... a good many questions on a subject of the highest priority.

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Before closing, I recommend Yoram Ettinger's piece advocating an Israeli attack on Iran at all costs:

We should pay the price, he says, it will be well worth it.

"Opponents of an attack warn that it could potentially result in a harsh response from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, international anger directed at Israel over higher oil prices, a wave of terror and Persian Gulf turbulence. Yet, these pale in comparison to the deadly cost of a nuclear threat....

"A pre-emptive attack against Iran would exact a non-lethal and short-term cost, but would boost Israel's long-term strategic image."

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1298

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An then a link to a video -- sent to me by multiple sources -- of British commentator Douglas Murray at a Cambridge Union Debate. The issue is Europe's lack of support for Israel, and his position is delivered fearlessly and brilliantly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dBzslDdQ_g&feature=email

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More to follow shortly.

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http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/2/4/february-4-2012-how-to-figure.html

February 2, 2012: How Long?

2012-02-02T17:51:02Z

How long do we play the role of sitting ducks, instead of taking the offensive against enemies?

Yes, this is a recurring theme of mine, and I've asked this question, in one form or another, several times before. Unfortunately, I'm likely be moved to ask it again in the future.

I ask it now because of the focus of the news, and the speeches delivered at the Herzliya Conference, which ends today.

There is, for example, Aviv Kochavi, head of IDF Intelligence, who spoke this morning. He reported that Israel's enemies have 200,000 rockets and missiles pointed at the country; thousands have a range of hundreds of kilometers, which means that every part of Israel is within target range now.

Is that so? And here we sit?

"The warheads on these missiles contain hundreds of kilograms of explosives, not dozens, as in the past. And their firing precision and ability to hit specific targets is also greater. The rockets are largely located in Lebanon and Syria, with a smaller amount in Gaza – and in Iran, as well, which has thousands of missiles that could reach Israel....Every tenth house in Lebanon is now a weapons depot."

I ask again: And here we sit?

I have never seen myself as having a propensity for violence. But confronted with information such as that above, I find that my desire to do very serious damage to these enemies waxes strong. This makes me a realist who takes "Never Again!" very seriously indeed. Concern about collateral damage is all very humane, and perhaps attention to world reaction is prudent to a point, but we simply cannot be inhibited from making the hits that will protect us. I want us to hit them -- the rocket storage areas and the terrorist headquarters, etc. etc. -- and hit them hard.

Spoken as a layperson...

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For with this all, there is also Iran to contend with. And here it's not just a matter of Israelis playing sitting ducks. Incredibly, it is the world that blithely seeks to play this role, oblivious, or pretending to be oblivious, to what's coming down the road.

There may be disagreements as to the exact timing, but all experts agree that we're approaching Zero Hour: The window for doing something about Iran is closing. This is not just because of their technical ability, but also because of the bunkers they are constructing that make it exceedingly difficult to get to their material and equipment.

Kochavi says that Tehran already has over 100 kilos of uranium enriched to a level of 20% -- enough for four atomic bombs. The issue is no longer Iranian capacity to build a bomb, but the political will. As yet, they haven't done so; should they decide to, it would take about a year.

And so, the big question is whether we're going to hit them. If we do, it will have to be soon -- perhaps by summer.

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James Woolsey, the former director of the CIA, and one of the good guys, says it's time for the US to begin military preparations to stop Iran:

"At some point someone is going to have to decide to use force to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. I’d argue that those who say we can deal adequately with Iran through deterrence are quite naive.

"National survival is at issue. In the near term that’s the case for Israel, but in the somewhat longer term it is [the case] for the US, which from Iran’s point of view, is the 'Great Satan.' This is a world-class problem, not an eastern Mediterranean or Persian Gulf problem. The politics of the world will change if this regime gets the bomb."

Source: Huffington Post

The man knows what he's talking about. So who's listening?

Israeli Minister of Security Affairs Moshe Yaalon said today that a major explosion that hit a base near Teheran about a month ago was the site at which a solid fuel propellant missile that would have achieved a range of 10,000 km. was being developed; it would have been able to reach the US.

Americans, do we have your attention yet? Why is there not a national outcry that the American president has launched a new effort to dialogue with Iran? Dialogue??

And via Turkey yet. Turkey, says Yaalon, is helping Iran circumvent sanctions by allowing it to use the Turkish banking system.

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Yaalon further says:

"Any facility defended by a human being can be penetrated. Any facility in Iran can be hit, and I speak from experience as the IDF chief of staff...

"The Iranians understand the West has capabilities, but as long as the Iranians don't think that the West has the political stomach and determination to use it they will not stop. Currently they don't think that the world is determined."

Woolsey says air strikes on the Revolutionary Guards in Iran would do it. "They’re at the heart of everything repressive internally, or aggressive externally."

He recommends that some five carrier battle groups -- consisting of an aircraft carrier, escort vessels and bomber support -- be sent to the Indian Oceans.

"What these [battle groups] are capable of doing – should the trigger be pulled – is taking out everything related to the Revolutionary Guards. Not the civilian infrastructure, not the electric grid, not the regular army, not civilian institutions."

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Ephraim Halevy, former head of the Mossad, sees what is happening in Syria as an enormous opportunity.

Source: transatlanticinstitute

"If there is a change in Syria, this will have wide international ramifications… The future of what happens in Damascus will impact all of the Middle East.

"The countries of the world..., make the mistake of seeing Iran as a problem of Iran and Syria as a problem of Syria.

"[Instead] we should have a main interest in ensuring that the Iranian interest is booted out of Syria. Look at Syria and see it as the Achilles heel of Iran."

~~~~~~~~~~

If I have any hope at all with regard to what the US might do, it is because the Americans have now developed a new 15 ton bunker buster -- the Massive Ordnance Penetrator or the "Big Blu" -- that is ten times as powerful as its predecessor. GPS-guided, it can go 61 meters underground and break through more than 60 meters (200 feet) of concrete.

Big Blu mockup Source: AFP

~~~~~~~~~~

Last Tuesday night, which is when I last posted, I reported the early news of the Likud primary count with some enthusiasm. That early count was way off, I learned yesterday. And in the end I was most decidedly not enthusiastic. Moshe Feiglin, challenging Binyamin Netanyahu for the leadership of the party, pulled down some 24% of the vote. Many, myself included, had hoped to see a stronger challenge to the prime minister.

~~~~~~~~~~

Tuesday was also Republican primary day in Florida. With Mitt Romney the big winner there, he's looking increasingly like the man who will challenge Obama come November. Should this be case, I will hope and pray that he will have sufficient vote-drawing power and feisty endurance in taking on Obama to make it to the White House. I will only have positive and encouraging words for Romney, who certainly has a great deal going for him, in line with my ABO -- anybody but Obama -- policy.

~~~~~~~~~~

It had been anticipated that a vote would be taken in the Knesset yesterday with regard to what has been dubbed the "Outpost Law." This is the legislation that would prevent the destruction of so-called "illegal outposts" unless Arabs claiming ownership of the land were able to provide documentation of their claims in court. Netanyahu is against it and has been applying pressure to block its passage.

Legislation sponsor Zevulun Orlev (Habayit Hayehudi) postponed the vote because he saw that the time was not yet right for securing its passage. "I will not abandon this legislation," he has declared. The vote may be delayed two weeks or more; work is being done to garner sufficient support.

In truth, support exists and the legislation would likely pass if all ministers were allowed to simply vote their conscience.

Orlev deserves kudos for his persistence on a significant issue.

~~~~~~~~~~

What Netanyahu has finally done, belatedly, is appoint a three person committee -- former Foreign Ministry legal advisor Alan Baker, former High Court justice Edmund Levy, and former deputy president of the Tel Aviv District Court Tchia Shapiro -- to examine land status issues in Judea and Samaria. Peace Now has already objected to Baker.

If this committee operates with any seriousness at all, there will be a great deal to say about its findings and legal implications.

~~~~~~~~~~

Eight rockets launched from Gaza yesterday struck in the Negev yesterday; there were no injuries.

This seemed to be timed for the visit to Gaza of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon. Families of people in Israeli prisons were irritated with him because he refused to meet with them: in fact, shoes were thrown at him.

~~~~~~~~~~

"The Good News Corner"

An Israeli company, Impulse Dynamics, is has developed a revolutionary new device, the Optimizer III, which is about the size of a pacemaker and is implanted much as the pacemaker is. Utilizing electrical impulses, it stimulates diseased heart muscle tissue to contract more strongly so that blood is pumped through the body more efficiently.

~~~~~~~~~~

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/2/2/february-2-2012-how-long.html

January 30, 2012: Fear and Rumor

2012-01-31T23:52:19Z

I am always reluctant to repeat here speculative, unconfirmed reports that pass as "news." For once I repeat them, I am reinforcing the impression that what I am saying is solid news.

Here, then, I will just allude in the most general terms to unsubstantiated talk about the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu might be willing to offer the Arabs a good deal of territory in Judea and Samaria.

One must begin by asking why in hell he should be ready to offer anything (if indeed that is the case). Why should there even be such speculation now? Why isn't he standing up on two feet and speaking for Israel's rights -- now especially when the Palestinian Arabs have been so obstructionist and so unwilling to seriously negotiate, so willing to abrogate the Oslo Accords via various unilateral gambits at the UN, and so quick to praise as martyrs obscene child-murders.

The answer is fairly obvious: International pressure that he may not be capable of resisting. Resisting, actually, is not his style: he prefers to play the game and look like the good guy (whatever that means in this context). We've seen it over and over -- the way he walks a very fine line, slipping evermore down that slippery slope.

~~~~~~~~~~

How far down that slope he may be prepared to go now is something we don't know. But the question I ask is whether he is truly prepared to give away the store.

Netanyahu has been taking positions of late that are most definitely not reassuring. His move to block the legislation that would save Migron is just one example.

Another is his statement with regard to an Israeli presence in the Jordan Valley. He said he would not forge an agreement that did not permit such an Israeli presence, and this was supposed to show how strong he was with regard to Israeli security and to provide reassurance. But I was not reassured. Because he didn't talk about retaining land in the valley, which is what is necessary. And he didn't allude at all to the necessity for Israel to retain high places in Samaria, also for security.

~~~~~~~~~~

But, the flip side is that there are reports about other things that he insists he will not cave on -- a united Jerusalem, no accepting "refugees," the demand that the PA recognize Israel as the Jewish state, the requirement that the PA sign off on the agreement as end of conflict, etc. And he knows with absolute certainty that if he doesn't cave on these things there will be no deal because the other side will never, ever buy it.

So the question: Is he thinking that if the Palestinian Arabs would let us keep Jerusalem, and would settle their "refugees" elsewhere, etc. etc., then he would truly be happy to give them most of Judea and Samaria? Or is he thinking that it's safe to go down that slope in order to make the international community happy, because our enemies, who can be counted on to reject what he offers, will ensure that in the end nothing happens anyway?

I cannot see into his heart, but my betting, even now, is that the answer is the latter. As nervous as Netanyahu has been making me, I persist in my belief that he is not an Ehud Olmert, who truly couldn't wait to give almost everything past the Green Line, including half of Jerusalem, to the Arabs.

And yet, when Netanyahu exclaims with great passion, as he just did, "I'm willing to travel to Ramallah to meet with Abbas," I cringe -- drama meant for the international community though I recognize it to be.

~~~~~~~~~~

If this discussion has the feeling of deja vu, it's because I have examined these issues before. Yet in light of the current situation I felt obliged to revisit it here.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then I want to throw another thought into the hopper. This news, which just broke today, is something I will surely return to in its broader aspects:

According to Israel National News:

"Mossad director Tamir Pardo is in Washington for talks about a possible attack on Iran's nuclear installations...
"Pardo's visit, which would normally be conducted in secret, was revealed by US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, 78, who made the faux pas at committee hearing.

"The hearing was being broadcast live by US television.

"Feinstein said she had spoken with Pardo, who also met with CIA director David Petraeus, adding that the Mossad chief had mentioned the possibility of unilateral Israeli action against Iran."

This still has the feeling of rumor about it. We don't really know what Pardo and Petraeus discussed. But it is within the realm of possibility that there is a quid pro quo somewhere. It might be that Netanyahu is prepared to advance a "plan" to entice the PA back to the table, in exchange for some sort of passive US acquiescence, should Israel decide to hit Iran.

Speculation. My point is that the situation is vastly complex and we are not privy to all of the parameters.

~~~~~~~~~~

It is now about 1:45 AM as I write in Israel. I have been waiting for results of Tuesday's Likud primary with regard to the selection of party leader. If figures that have just been released are correct, it is cause for much satisfaction. That Netanyahu would win was never in doubt -- the issue was by how much. The challenger, a nationalist Moshe Feiglin, had secured some 23% of the vote last time around. Tonight it may be as much as 36% (this according to the JPost).

This delivers a message to Netanyahu to attend to the demands of the right flank of his party or risk losing voter support. It's letting him know that his position on such issues as Migron is not sitting well with a whole lot of people.

Follow-up as necessary tomorrow.

~~~~~~~~~~

With regard to Obama:

An article -- "No Matter What" -- has been circulating broadly. Purportedly written by Dr. Walter Williams, an economist on the faculty of George Mason University in Virginia, it advances the thesis that Obama cannot lose the election. But it is a fraud!

See the disclaimer and apology from the university: http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/wew/RiteOn.orgApology.pdf

Let people know about this, for advancing the notion that Obama cannot lose has a psychological effect on how some might vote. It will not be an easy battle, but the fact is that Obama most certainly can lose.

(Thanks to Barbara O. here.)

~~~~~~~~~~

Then, Yoram Ettinger, writing about "A Return to Andalusia."

This makes crystal clear what Palestinian Arab intentions truly are -- and provides understanding as to why there is no compromise in dealing with them. What they are fighting about is the fact that Jews have no right to a presence on any land that, "in the eyes of Muslims, is Waqf - an inalienable religious endowment."

"On January 9, 2012, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Muhammad Ahmad Hussein, a close associate of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, stated that all of Israel has been Waqf since 637 C.E., and will be forever. The statement was made at the annual rally of Fatah, which Abba heads.

"This principle of 'holy land' is permanent, and is stronger than any leader or passing policy, and it applies to any land that was ever under Islamic control. It is an inseparable part of the legacy of Muhammad and Islamic law...

"The centrality of 'holy land' in the Muslim experience can be understood from the example of Andalusia, the Arabic name for most of the Iberian Peninsula, which was under Islamic rule from 711-1492 C.E. The Muslim Golden Age did not take place between the Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea, but rather in Andalusia...In 1492, Spain was liberated from the control of Muslims, who today still view 'Andalusia' as their 'holy land.' Muslim terrorist plots in Madrid in March 2004 killed 191 people and wounded around 1,800. The attack intended to correct the 'injustice of Andalusia.' Saudi Arabia is constructing the second largest mosque in the world in Cordoba, the former capital of Andalusia, while mosques are springing up like mushrooms all over Spain."

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=1262

~~~~~~~~~~

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/1/31/january-30-2012-fear-and-rumor.html

January 30, 2012: Frenetic Times

2012-01-30T17:14:29Z

Afraid it's "that time" again: Time for a review of what's going on with our "partners for peace" and their brothers in Hamas. Hate doing this. But every so many days...

As was totally predictable, the "talks" supervised by Jordan have gone nowhere and are likely finished. (Although, as I write there is an unconfirmed report that the low level talks may continue for another month. We'll see.)

You realize, of course, that the lack of progress in the talks is all Israel's fault. Must be, because that's what PA leaders are saying. We failed to submit a detailed plan of our demands for security and borders (to which I say, Baruch Hashem!); we merely submitted principles of what we think must be dealt with. The PA says the deadline for us to do so was January 26. Israel says the PA is counting wrong. The Quartet had said both side were to submit plans within three months. The PA calculates that three months as having ended now. Israel says it ends three months after the Jordanian talks began.

~~~~~~~~~~

For background information: It is Israel's policy generally (not always adhered to as perfectly as might be desired) not to reveal specifics of what might be conceded until everything is on the table and dealt with -- "nothing is decided until everything is decided."

~~~~~~~~~~

At the Cabinet meeting yesterday, Netanyahu reported, "As things stand now, according to what happened over the past few days - when the Palestinians refused even to discuss Israel's security needs with us - the signs are not particularly good."

Naturally, we will continue to see pressure brought to bear, to bring the parties back to the table. Catherine Ashton, EU foreign policy chief, was in the region last week, meeting with Israeli and PA officials.

~~~~~~~~~~

What particularly enrages -- although this is hardly new -- is that the Western world knows full well that Israel has no "partner for peace." It's simply that leaders are mindful of their relationship with Arab nations, and pander to the growing number of Muslims within their own nations, as well as to the left wing pro-Palestinian segment of their electorates. And so, they have an agenda that has nothing to do with facts or justice.

Please see this Palestinian Media Watch bulletin revealing the fact -- complete with video clip -- that Palestinian Authority TV twice last week broadcast greetings to Hakim Awad, convicted of murdering five members of the Fogel family last year, from members of his family and from the TV host. From his mother, who calls him the "apple of my eye," and his aunt, who refers to him as "the hero, the legend."

http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=6245

~~~~~~~~~~

Irish Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore has been here visiting, and PM Netanyahu remarked to him that while the world asks Israel to provide "confidence building measures," what the PA does with such praises of a terrorist destroys Israel's confidence.

Actually, I think that our prime minister didn't make the case nearly strongly enough. What this behavior does is cast a light on the perverted soul of the PA: What sort of society glorifies the murderer of babies this way? And why is it imagined that such a society merits a sovereign nation of its own?

But in the end it probably doesn't matter what Netanyahu said -- although he was correct to speak out -- because Gilmore, who represents a nation that is not exactly pro-Israel, probably wasn't really listening anyway. His mind is made up.

~~~~~~~~~~

Con Coughlin, writing last week in The Telegraph, said, "The Palestinians are doing their best to derail peace talks with Israel":

"...I am told by Western diplomats close to the exploratory talks that are currently taking place [note: have since ended] in Jordan between the two sides that the real reason they are running into difficulty is because the Palestinian delegation, led by the veteran Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, is refusing to take the talks seriously.

"For example, I am told by a Western diplomat working for the Quartet that when the Israeli delegation arrived for a meeting last weekend in Amman, the Jordanian capital, to present their latest security proposals, Mr. Erekat simply refused to enter the room.
"My man in the Jordan conference room says that he was surprised at Mr. Erekat's behaviour, especially as the topic under discussion was supposed to be one of the two main topics the Palestinian delegation wanted on the agenda...

"Erekat's refusal to enter the negotiating room and hear what the Israelis had to say does not bode well for the Quartet's attempts to get the two sides to resume full negotiations, and raises questions about just how serious the Palestinians are about getting a peace deal..."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/concoughlin/100132355/the-palestinians-are-doing-their-best-to-derail-peace-talks-with-israel/

~~~~~~~~~~

"Not bode well"? "Raises questions"? Enormous understatements, but point is taken.

Barack Obama was inclined at one time -- before he began currying favor with American Jews for election purposes -- to publicly chastise Israel, for example, for announcing that homes for young couples would be build in Jerusalem east of the Green Line. But if he publicly chastised the PA for failure to exhibit good faith in the negotiations, I missed it.

A most unpalatable fact of life: This is what Israel must contend with.

~~~~~~~~~~

According to the Palestinian Maan News, the PLO executive committee will be meeting today, to discuss the "failure" of the preliminary talks. Then of course there will be discussion of "alternatives." UN bids, Hamas reconciliation (see below on this), etc.

Here we may go again...

~~~~~~~~~~

As to Hamas, it's in a severe state of turmoil. Iran has cut off assistance because of its leaders' refusal to back Assad in Syria. And thus, for all intents and purposes, Hamas is finished with regard to being headquartered in Damascus. According to intelligence sources, Khaled Mashaal has left for good; he's in Jordan at the moment and won't be coming back.

There seems, however, to be a real reluctance to say that the Hamas headquarters are closed. As one diplomat cited recently in the JPost put it, "Our belief is that Hamas [would] not announce a departure from Syria even if it happened." What is likely is that they'll keep low level staff there and maintain the fiction that they still have a headquarters there.

~~~~~~~~~~

But where will they go? Jordan has established limits to a Hamas presence, saying that Hamas leaders are welcome as individuals, but no more than this. King Abdullah has his hands full as it is.

Source: qassam

The Muslim Brotherhood is similarly less than keen on hosting this movement. And, says Guy Bechor in YNet, they won't settle in Gaza because they fear it would make them too ready a target for an Israeli hit.

Bechor says that the "domestic" Hamas leadership in Gaza headed by Ismail Haniyeh is gaining ascendency within the organization now. And Mashaal is so frustrated that he's talking about leaving Hamas and starting a rival Muslim Brotherhood group, which means "a return to the Islamic track at the expense of Palestinian national identity."

Lastly, says Bechor, "Hamas won momentary global glory as result of the so-called blockade on Gaza. Yet now, when the siege is no longer in place with the border crossing to Egypt open to people and goods, how will the organization survive on the public relations front? This may be the worst problem faced by a group that lives off anti-Israel slogans and now finds itself crashing against the rocks of reality. "

See the full article here: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4181496,00.html

~~~~~~~~~~

A likely result of this enormous Hamas turmoil is that the idea of a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation will be more readily exposed for the myth that it is.

~~~~~~~~~~

We've looked before at the issue of the joint US-Israeli military exercises that were to take place here, but were cancelled, amid much speculation as to why and by which party. Even now I am seeing reports claiming that Israel cancelled, and that is what a representative of the Obama administration claimed when Gingrich chastised Obama for the cancellation.

Now I have on background, from a highly reliable source, this information:

"The U.S.-Israeli exercise was canceled because Obama is dealing secretly and intensively with Iran in an effort to stop a nuclear crisis and to ensure Teheran's cooperation for a U.S. pullout from Afghanistan. The easiest and most effective way for Obama to show his sincerity to Teheran is to keep Israel at arm's length if not farther."

~~~~~~~~~~

I want to call an important article to your attention:

Caroline Glick's brilliant "Zionist Imperative," in which she speaks about the historical ambivalence of America Jews to Zionism (all emphasis added).

"The problem that anti-Zionism poses for American Jewry is that it forces them to pay a price for supporting Israel. This is problematic because Zionism has never been fully embraced by American Jewry. Since the dawn of modern Zionism, the cause of Jewish self-determination placed American Jewish leaders in an uncomfortable dilemma.

"Unlike every other Diaspora Jewish community, the American Jewish community has always perceived itself as a permanent community rather than an exilic community. American Jews have always viewed the United States as the new Promised Land.

"With the formation of the modern Zionist movement in the late 19th century, American Jews found themselves on the horns of a dilemma. Clearly, the state of world Jewry was such that national self-determination had become an existential necessity for non-American Jews.

"But while supporting Jewish refugees and a scrappy little country was okay, support for the Zionist cause of Jewish national liberation involved an acceptance of the fact that Israel – not the US – is the Jewish homeland. Moreover, it involved accepting that there are Jewish interests that are independent of – if not necessarily in contradiction with – American interests. For instance, irrespective of the prevailing winds in Washington, and regardless of whether the US supports Israel or not, it is a Jewish interest that Israel exists, thrives and survives...

"Pro-Israel American Jews have historically tried to tie their support for Israel to larger, more universal themes, in order to extricate themselves from the need to admit that as Jews and supporters of Israel they have a right and a duty to support Jewish freedom even if it isn’t always pretty. Again, for Israel’s first several decades, it was about helping poor Jews and refugees. In recent years, the predominant defense has been that Israel deserves support because it is a democracy.

"Certainly, these are both reasonable reasons for supporting Israel. But neither support for Israel because it was poor nor support for Israel because it is free is a specifically Zionist reason for supporting Israel. You don’t have to be a Zionist to support poor Jewish refugees and you don’t have to be a Zionist to support democracy.

"You do have to be a Zionist however, to defend the Jews in Israel and throughout the world in a coherent manner when the predominant form of Jew-hatred is anti-Zionism.

"You have to be willing to accept and defend the right of the Jewish people to freedom and self-determination in our national homeland against those who deny that right. You have to be a Zionist to defend Israel’s right to survive and thrive even though it is no longer poor and its democratically elected government is not liked by the Obama administration.

"And you have to be a Zionist to realize that since Jewish survival is dependent on Jewish power, and anti-Zionists reject the right of Jews to have power, that anti-Zionists seek to bring about a situation where Jewish survival is imperiled...

"...To oppose Iran’s nuclear program effectively, American Jews are required to oppose these strongly supported US policies. And at some point, this may require them to announce they support Israel’s right to survive and thrive even if that paramount right conflicts with how the US government perceives US national interests.

"That is, it may require them to embrace Zionism unconditionally...

"We must hope that world Jewry will recognize today that the fate of the Jewish people in Israel and throughout the world is indivisible and rally to Israel’s side whatever the social cost of doing so. But even if they do not recognize this basic truth, the imperatives of Zionism, of the Jewish people, remain in place."

http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=255334

~~~~~~~~~~

I end, most appropriately in light of the above, by repeating the core of yesterday's posting, which requested the assistance of readers in contacting members of Knesset. I know that many people of good heart and with the best of intentions read what I write, make a mental note to get to it, and then somehow never do. Too little time, too many distractions. And so, I am providing that information a second time, with my heartfelt thanks for your efforts.

~~~~~~~~~~

A very significant vote is coming up in the Knesset this week. The issues are complex and YOUR COOPERATION HERE IS EXCEEDINGLY IMPORTANT.

You've heard about this legislation from me previously: Proposed by MK Zevulun Orlev (Habayit Hayehudi), it would forbid the dismantling of communities of more than 20 families in Judea and Samaria without properly filed documentation that the land was Arab-owned. This would negate the vague, unsubstantiated claims of land being "Arab" that are currently filed in court by Peace Now.

What is more, this legislation stipulates that if the documentation of Arab ownership is filed after a specified period of time (four years, as I understand it), the community still wouldn't be taken down and instead the Arab land owner would be provided with monetary compensation.

~~~~~~~~~~

Prime Minister Netanyahu -- at the behest of Minister Benny Begin, who is attempting to negotiate a "deal" with the residents of Migron and wants them to feel squeezed -- has secured a negative vote on this legislation in the Ministerial Committee for Legislation. Nothing prevents the promoters of a piece of legislation from bringing it to the Knesset without the approval of the committee -- it is simply that without this endorsement it is less likely to pass in the Knesset.

An appeal has been filed -- requesting a re-vote in the committee -- by Minister of Diaspora Affairs Yuli Edelstein (Likud) and Minister of Science Daniel Hershkowitz (Habayit Hayehudi) -- but there has been no response to this. There is reason to believe the original vote would overturned if there were a second vote.

~~~~~~~~~~

Now MK Orlev has decided to bring this proposed law before the Knesset -- possibly by Wednesday.

And here's where you have to pay attention to understand the situation and its serious implications:

Coalition discipline will not be invoked, so that members of the Knesset will be free to follow their conscience on this important matter rather than having to vote a party line.

HOWEVER, since the Ministerial Committee voted against the legislation, ministers are expected to also vote against it in the Knesset. They can, if they choose, vote for the legislation, but then, according to the rules, Netanyahu can fire them. He is not obligated to fire them, he is simply at liberty to do so.

Needless to say, Netanyahu is applying pressure, and making noises about firing those who do not toe the line.

~~~~~~~~~~

This has an unpleasant echo of Gush Katif, when then PM Sharon applied every sort of strong-arm technique possible to keep his ministers in line so they'd vote as he wished. We must not let this happen again. Sharon betrayed his mandate when he behaved this way, and Netanyahu is now playing matters in a similar fashion. I've cut him slack with regard to many issues. But I cut him none here.

~~~~~~~~~~

In previous posting, I asked you to write to the Likud ministers in support of Migron. Now I ask you to write again, to these ministers and those of Shas and Yisrael Beitenu as well:

Say that you understand that legislation that would save Migron and other communities in Judea and Samaria is about to come before the Knesset. It would release Israel from the strangle-hold of Peace Now and prevent Jewish communities from being destroyed.

Remind them that the mandate given to the coalition by the voters was nationalist and that they would be betraying this mandate if they voted against this legislation.

Tell them that, even more importantly, if they vote against it they would be taking a position that is not in the best interests of the State of Israel.

Let them know that you see it as imperative that they vote their conscience on this matter. It is not acceptable for them to place job security ahead of what is best for Israel. In any event there is no guarantee that the prime minister will fire any ministers, and less likely if many ministers stand together to do what is right.

Voters and those who support the parties are very tired of political game playing. The ministers must know that they are being watched and that support in the future will depend on their readiness to do the right thing now.

~~~~~~~~~~

Do NOT send a group message; the message to each minister should be separate. But there is no reason to be intimidated by the fact that there are several names on the list that follows.

There is a way to make it easy for yourself: Compose a message that says "Dear Minister," followed by text of that message. Copy that message and salutation. Then, in turn, click on each minister's e-mail address, paste in the greeting and message, and hit send.

LIKUD:

Minister of Improvement of Government Services Michael Eitan

meitan@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Environmental Protection Gilad Erdan

gerdan@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Welfare Moshe Kahlon

mcachlon@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Transportation Yisrael Katz

yiskatz@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Culture Limor Livnat

llivnat@knesset.gov.il (a previous typo in this address has been corrected)

Minister Yosi Peled

ypeled@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Education Gideon Saar

gsaar@knesset.gov.il

Minister of the Development of the Negev Silvan Shalom

sshalom@knesset.gov.il

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz

ysteinitz@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon

myaalon@knesset.gov.il

SHAS:

Minister of Internal Affairs Eli Yishai

eyishay@knesset.gov.il

Minister Meshulam Nahari

mnahari@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Religious Affairs Yakov Margi

ymargi@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Housing Ariel Atias

aatias@knesset.gov.il

YISRAEL BEITENU:

Minister of Tourism Stas Misezhnikov

smiseznikov@knesset.gov.il

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman
aliberman@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Immigrant Absorption Sofa Landver
slandver@knesset.gov.il

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Danny Ayalon
dayalon@knesset.gov.il

~~~~~~~~~~

If Gush Katif infuriated you or pained you, if you want to be part of a democratic process that protects Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, if the idea of their having to turn over their land to Arabs distresses you, please! take the time to do this.

Numbers count a great deal. Send this to others who are likely to also respond.

Thank you. More will follow tomorrow.

~~~~~~~~~~

In closing, a note of clarification, very broadly, for those who are outside of Israel and perhaps confused by our system: Parties receive mandates (seats) in the Knesset according to the percentage of votes they secured in the previous election. If one party does not have sufficient seats (i.e., more than 60) to constitute a majority of the Knesset, then a coalition is formed; this always happens. Once the coalition is in place, there are ministerial positions allocated to the various parties in the coalition. With very rare exceptions, the ministers are chosen from the ranks of those within the parties who have been elected to the Knesset. Those who are ministers sit in the Cabinet and constitute the government, but they are still members of the Knesset.

~~~~~~~~~~

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/1/30/january-30-2012-frenetic-times.html

January 29, 2012: Pushing Back, Pushing Forward

2012-01-29T16:53:09Z

There's a good deal happening, and much to respond to. Please read this through and act. I like to think of my readers as also actors in the important fights we are fighting -- against some things, for others. Your assistance does make a difference.

~~~~~~~~~~

I begin with a link to my latest article on Front Page Magazine, "Answering Obama's Israel Lies."

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/01/27/answering-obamas-israel-lies/

It exposes the distortions and half-truths that have been put out in a campaign video purporting to show what a good friend to Israel Obama is. Please, circulate broadly.

Here's the link to the original video, in case you haven't seen it. It's making the rounds big time and must be responded to in a serious fashion, for it's so easy to be taken in if you don't know the facts. When you DO know the facts, the response to this is some combination of rage and deep disgust.

https://my.barackobama.com/page/share/america-and-israel?source=20120120_da&utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_campaign=20120120_da&email=fallets%40bellsouth.net&zip=33446&firstname=&lastname=Fallet

(My thanks to Debbie B.)

~~~~~~~~~~

A very significant vote is coming up in the Knesset this week. The issues are complex and YOUR COOPERATION HERE IS EXCEEDINGLY IMPORTANT.

~~~~~~~~~~

Now MK Oren has decided to bring this proposed law before the Knesset -- possibly by Wednesday.

And here's where you have to pay attention to understand the situation and its serious implications:

Coalition discipline will not be invoked, so that members of the Knesset will be free to follow their conscience on this important matter rather than having to vote a party line.

Needless to say, Netanyahu is applying pressure, and making noises about firing those who do not toe the line.

~~~~~~~~~~

This has an unpleasant echo of Gush Katif, when then PM Sharon applied every sort of strong-arm technique possible to keep his ministers in line so they'd vote as he wished. We cannot let this happen again. Sharon betrayed his mandate when he behaved this way, and Netanyahu is now playing matters in a similar fashion. I've cut him slack with regard to many issues. But I cut him none here.

~~~~~~~~~~

In my last posting, I asked you to write to the Likud ministers in support of Migron. Now I ask you to write again, to these ministers and those of Shas and Yisrael Beitenu as well:

Remind them that the mandate given to the coalition by the voters was nationalist and that they would be betraying this mandate if they voted against this legislation.

Tell them that, even more importantly, if they vote against it they would be taking a position that is not in the best interests of the State of Israel.

~~~~~~~~~~

Do NOT send a group message; the message to each minister should be separate. But there is no reason to be intimidated by the fact that there are several names on the list that follows.

LIKUD:

Minister of Improvement of Government Services Michael Eitan

meitan@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Environmental Protection Gilad Erdan

gerdan@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Welfare Moshe Kahlon

mcachlon@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Transportation Yisrael Katz

yiskatz@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Culture Limor Livnat

llivnat@knesset.gov.il (a previous typo in this address has been corrected)

Minister Yosi Peled

ypeled@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Education Gideon Saar

gsaar@knesset.gov.il

Minister of the Development of the Negev Silvan Shalom

sshalom@knesset.gov.il

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz

ysteinitz@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon

myaalon@knesset.gov.il

SHAS:

Minister of Internal Affairs Eli Yishai

eyishay@knesset.gov.il

Minister Meshulam Nahari

mnahari@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Religious Affairs Yakov Margi

ymargi@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Housing Ariel Atias

aatias@knesset.gov.il

YISRAEL BEITENU:

Minister of Tourism Stas Misezhnikov

smiseznikov@knesset.gov.il

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman
aliberman@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Immigrant Absorption Sofa Landver
slandver@knesset.gov.il

Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Danny Ayalon
dayalon@knesset.gov.il

~~~~~~~~~~

Numbers count a great deal. Send this to others who are likely to also respond.

Thank you. More will follow tomorrow.

~~~~~~~~~~

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/1/29/january-29-2012-pushing-back-pushing-forward.html

January 24, 2012: MIGRON in the spotlight

2012-01-24T18:00:14Z

My readers have heard from me about Mitzpe Avichai, and now it is time to turn our attention to Migron -- which presents some very serious issues. You will learn things here that it is unlikely you've heard from your mainstream media sources.

Migron is a Jewish community on a hilltop in the Binyamin Regional Council in Samaria, north of Jerusalem. With 49 families, it is the largest of the communities that are frequently referred to as "unauthorized settlements."

Source: Indynewsisrael

Source: Syd's-blog                     Source: Wikipedia

~~~~~~~~~~

In order to properly understand the situation of this community, we will need a bit of background, which has been provided by a resident of Migron who serves as a spokesperson:

In 1960, the king of Jordan divided the area where Migron is now located into some 60 plots and gave them to individual families. It was, however, with the proviso that they begin farming within three years, or the land would revert back to the kingdom. No farming was done, not for three years and not for seven years -- which is when the land came under Israeli control.

Land that reverted back to the kingdom should have become Israeli state land. This should have been the end of the story. (As I understand it, to ensure there would be no problem, the Jews who came to establish Migron purchased the land in any event.)

~~~~~~~~~~

In 1999, establishment of Migron began with the set-up of the first caravans. The very first residents were actually part of an archeological expedition in the area, which, it should be noted, provided evidence -- including a winepress -- of an exclusively Jewish presence.

The community, as it grew, worked with a host of government ministries that provided support for phone lines, electricity, water, staff of day care and nursery schools and more.

In point of fact, the government saw a need for a Jewish community in this location for security reasons. A by-pass road had been established at the foot of the hill on which Migron is situated so that Jews would be able to travel -- via route 60 -- while avoiding entry into Ramallah. It was understood that without Jews on this hill, Jews traveling the road below would be at risk. (It is certain that Arabs would be up there, if Jews were not.)

Additionally, from the height of that location Jews are able to overlook the north of Jerusalem and communities situated between Migron and the Dead Sea.

But, for all the sanction the government gave to the establishment of this community, what was missing was the final authorization from the Ministry of Defense. From mid-1999, and for two years subsequent, Ehud Barak was Defense Minister, and so it is possible that he was the one who would have had to sign off on this. (What a surprise!) Or, as these approvals take time, perhaps the very leftist Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who followed him.

This is a common story. It feels rather schizoid -- with one hand not knowing, or approving, what the other is doing. This is a function of the nature of the administration of Jewish communities beyond the Green Line. Were civil law to be applied, the Ministry of Defense would not be involved.

~~~~~~~~~~

In 2006, Peace Now got into the act, going to the High Court and claiming that the land Migron was situated on belonged to Arabs. Ostensibly, Peace Now spoke on behalf of a group of Arab plaintiffs, who were from local villages. Residents of Migron observed that these plaintiffs, who seemed to have been drafted by Peace Now, were "without a clue."

Migron residents, I have been told, have never had a problem with their Arab neighbors, and it seemed to them more than a bit strange that, if the Arab plaintiffs knew that Jews were occupying their land, they would have waited the seven years since Migron had been established before registering a claim.

My Migron source tells me that various documents were provided to the Court that were never taken into consideration. With various legal delays, it was not determined until early last year that Migron was to be demolished by the end of March 2012.

~~~~~~~~~~

In the meantime, the Arabs who were claiming that Migron was on their land brought a suit into the Jerusalem Magistrates Court, demanding that the State provide them with compensation for the years in which they were deprived of their land. (Never mind that in the years before Migron was established they had not in any way utilized this land.) But this court demanded of the plaintiffs that they provide proof of ownership of the land and gave them a deadline, which recently expired.

Just last week, the Jerusalem Magistrates Court ruled that the plaintiffs, as they could not provide proof of land ownership, had to pay compensation to the residents of Migron for their trouble and were forbidden from bringing further lawsuits on this issue.

~~~~~~~~~~

Now, I asked myself, if the Arab plaintiffs that Peace Now was representing could not prove their right to the land of Migron, why is it that the High Court order to demolish Migron stands.

Today I posed that question to a representative of the Legal Forum of the Land of Israel. The answer is stunning:

This issue, I was told, is political, not legal. For the Court did not rule that the government had to demolish Migron. The government volunteered to do it. Let me repeat this: The government volunteered to do it.

What happened is that the Court turned to the government and said, these claims are being made against Migron, how are you going to handle this? And the answer from the government was, we'll demolish Migron by March 31, 2012.

The government said this? Even though government ministries had helped to establish Migron and there was clear recognition on the part of the government that putting a Jewish community on that hill was a wise thing to do from a security perspective?

So I have been advised.

~~~~~~~~~~

If you are totally confused, it is understandable. But I believe I can explain what's happening here.

It is exceedingly unlikely that the government would have taken action against Migron if not for the petition of Peace Now, which acts as the "impetus" in many of these cases.

But once a petition such as this one is filed, the representatives of the government show themselves to be without the courage of their convictions. Or perhaps better put, they have no convictions. That is, they are not guided by a determination to stand by Jewish rights and to fight for those rights. They are guided by pragmatics and not by principle or ideology. They cave, out of fear of being criticized by the international community for taking Arab land, etc. etc.

And fairness to the residents of Migron, who were assisted by government agencies in establishing their community? What does this have to do with anything?

~~~~~~~~~~

Right now this is a very hot political potato, with many incensed at the notion of taking down Migron. Speaker of the Knesset Ruby Rivlin (Likud) has spoken out on this with vehemence. I'm told Shas is with the residents of Migron. And Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman says this is a red line for his party, Yisrael Beitenu, which will leave the coalition if Migron comes down.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, then, is between a rock and a hard place politically, and realizes that if a satisfactory solution is not found for Migron his government is at risk.

Thus, there is an attempt to strike an agreement with Migron residents that would provide an out for the government, which would not have to demolish the community.

~~~~~~~~~~

But even this is a complicated and infuriating matter.

Not long ago, legislation was introduced that to prevent communities in Judea and Samaria from being destroyed unless the Arab(s) claiming ownership produced documentation of that ownership -- and if documentation were produced beyond a certain number of years, there would be monetary compensation instead.

This legislation would protect Migron. But it is frozen in the Ministerial Committee on Legislation at the request of Netanyahu. He, in turn, has done this at the behest of Minister Benny Begin (Likud). If I live to be 100 I will not understand what is driving Begin at this point. He is heading negotiations that the government is holding with the representatives of Migron, regarding a so-called compromise. He doesn't want to see them protected by this legislation; he wants them to feel that they have no choice but to accept what he offers. In light of what I had previously understood to be his political orientation, the fact that he wants this confuses me totally.

The compromise, which is being urged on Migron by Netanyahu, would move the community to the bottom of the hill on to land that is universally acknowledged to be state land. It is better, the residents are being told, than having their community simply demolished.

~~~~~~~~~~

But the community is not buying this. You may have read in recent news reports that a deal was reached. I was told today, however, that there is no deal.

The position of the Migron residents is that they have a right to be where they are, that they are not located on Arab land. If they move to the bottom of the hill, they say, it denies their purpose in having been put (by the government) on the hill for security reasons in the first place, and it ignores the involvement of multiple government ministries in helping them to be established there.

~~~~~~~~~~

The question, then, is whether, when push comes to shove, the prime minister will actually allow the destruction of Migron, as this may bring down his government.

Apparently there are at least a couple of avenues he can take to remedy the situation. He can permit the release of the legislation from committee. Or, I was told by the legal forum, the government can return to the High Court and say that in the light of new evidence it withdraws its commitment to take down the community.

~~~~~~~~~~

I would like to see as many of my readers as possible give a boost to the residents of Migron, as they wait to see if the prime minister blinks.

Please! write to Netanyahu.

Tell him that you are convinced that the residents of Migron are in their current location by right, that they were helped by the government as they were established, that they serve a legitimate security purpose, and that there is absolutely no reason to believe that they are on Arab land.

Tell him that you are watching his government closely in this regard, and that you expect him to do what is honorable and principled, and not what is convenient politically.

Say you expect him to return to the High Court and, based on new information, reverse the commitment to take down Migron. And that you further expect the legislation that is currently frozen in committee regarding the demolishment of communities to be released for vote in the Knesset.

Fax: 02-670-5369 (From the US: 011-972-2-670-5369)

E-mail: Memshala@pmo.gov.il and also pm_eng2@it.pmo.gov.il (underscore after pm) use both addresses

~~~~~~~~~~

Then, please, write to the following Likud ministers and urge them to push the prime minister to take action to remedy the situation in Migron properly. Ask them to remind Netanyahu that the government may fall if he fails to do this.

Keep it simple for yourself. Compose a short message that says "Dear Minister," followed by text, click on each minister's e-mail address in turn, paste in the message and send. Do NOT send a group message; each should be separate.

Minister of Public Diplomacy Yuli Edelstein

yedelstein@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Improvement of Government Services Michael Eitan

meitan@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Environmental Protection Gilad Erdan

gerdan@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Welfare Moshe Kahlon

mcachlon@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Transportation Yisrael Katz

yiskatz@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Culture Limor Livnat

llivant@knesset.gov.il

Minister Yosi Peled

ypeled@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Education Gideon Saar

gsaar@knesset.gov.il

Minister of the Development of the Negev Silvan Shalom

sshalom@knesset.gov.il

Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz

ysteinitz@knesset.gov.il

Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon

myaalon@knesset.gov.il

~~~~~~~~~~

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/1/24/january-24-2012-migron-in-the-spotlight.html

January 22, 2012: All Right!!

2012-01-22T20:32:18Z

Newt Gingrich, surprising a whole lot of people, ran away with the Republican primary election in S. Carolina yesterday. He has garnered at least 23 of S. Carolina's 25 delegates to the Republican convention.

Source: Huffington Post

Analysts attribute this win to Gingrich's feisty delivery at the two S. Carolina debates -- in Myrtle Beach and Charleston. He's focused, articulate, and unafraid of confronting facts that are politically incorrect.

During his speech to supporters last night, he declared:
"The centerpiece of this campaign, I believe, is American exceptionalism versus the radicalism of Saul Alinsky [the founder of modern techniques in community organizing, who wrote 'Rules for Radicals'].

"If Barack Obama can get re-elected after this disaster, just think how radical he would be in a second term...

"President Obama is a president so weak that he makes Jimmy Carter look strong."

~~~~~~~~~~

With regard to energy independence, he said:

"I want America to become so energy independent that no American president ever again bows to the Saudi king."

Remember that? No one in America should forget.

With regard to Obama's decision on Keystone [which involved his rejecting an offer made by Canada to bring an oil line into the US, after which China expressed an interest], he observed:

"An American president who can create a Chinese-Canadian partnership is truly a danger to this country."

~~~~~~~~~~

You can view his entire S. Carolina primary victory speech here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nYoqe-VjvQ

~~~~~~~~~~

The NY Sun put out an editorial today about Gingrich's S. Carolina win -- "Gingrich's Synthesis" -- that is worth reading:

"Newt Gingrich is on his game, to judge not only by his victory in South Carolina but the remarkable speech he delivered when the vote was in. It seemed as if he’d waited for months to get the whole country’s attention, and when he had it last night he laid out a full vision...

"...What struck us as so shrewd in Mr. Gingrich’s display last night was not his ability to divide but to synthesize [drawing on ideas of others and giving credit]..."

What he has done with this approach, says the Sun, "is a mark of leadership."

"It certainly puts Mr. Gingrich in a good position going in to Florida. We say that not as an endorsement, rather as merely an observation...The synthesis of ideas Mr. Gingrich unfurled in the Palmetto State suggests we are in for one of the great nominating contests of our time."

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/gingrichs-synthesis/87667/ (And thanks to Chana G. for calling my attention to this.)

~~~~~~~~~~

I have made no secret of the fact that I favor Gingrich as the Republican candidate because (whatever others perceive) I see him as having an excellent chance to not only beat Obama -- the first order of business -- but also to be a very fine president: He is exceedingly sharp and has a solid command of the issues; I was excited some long while ago when he made statements about Islamists and terrorism that told me he really knows what's what. He has a solid record behind him. And he's a fighter (in the positive sense) with staying power.

However this campaign may ultimately resolve itself, today I find that I am energized and more hopeful. The next hurdle is the Florida primary on January 31.

~~~~~~~~~~

I will, however, also sustain my AABO (almost anyone but Obama) position, which means that -- whatever my personal preference -- I will gladly and without qualification support Santorum or Romney should one of them get the Republican nod. Obama is such a nightmare that defeating him must take precedence over a great many other considerations. He is on his way to fighting a dirty campaign -- seriously misrepresenting his devotion to Israel. And I will shortly return to this important theme to consider it in greater detail.

~~~~~~~~~~

Here, I want to note simply that Obama continues to insist that he is a huge supporter of Israeli security. Let's pass, just for the moment, on issues such as his wanting to push Israel to the '67 line (with perhaps 2% adjustment), when this is clearly not in Israel's best interest from a security perspective...

Last night I heard journalist/commentator Caroline Glick speak here in Jerusalem. The point she made was that with regard to Obama's Middle East policy, everything he has done has been wrong and has weakened the US. It has been my position, consistently, that a weakened US also weakens Israel's security -- and I will continue to maintain this argument in countering his claims. But it goes beyond this to a weakening of Western interests.

Some of Glick's comments on Obama:

With new anti-American forces that have emerged with the so-called "Arab Spring," the US national interests have been hurt in a fundamental way.

"Everything the US is doing is inimical to its own interests and empowers its enemies." Examples:

The US has intervened on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt since 2009: When Obama addressed the "Muslim world," in his speech at Cairo University (a Brotherhood stronghold), he was embracing the Muslim Brotherhood vision of a pan-Arab world [i.e, united by Islam -- via a caliphate]. This was a rejection of Arab nationalism and constituted a direct hit on Mubarak's national legitimacy. Subsequently, Obama played a primary role in transferring power in Egypt from an ally (Mubarak) to an enemy (the Muslim Brotherhood).

The US has how embraced Turkey, which is moving into the Islamist camp, as its most solid ally in the Middle East.

Obama refused to support the Green Movement in Iran, which was seeking to overthrow the Islamist regime, even as they begged for assistance.

Obama, however, embraced the Gadaffi opposition, even though Gadaffi was not a significant threat and the opposition was strongly influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.

"Obama has made clear that if you are confrontational to the US, he will support you, while if you show a pro-US tendency, he will betray you."

Under Obama, the US is actively supporting forces that want to destroy the US -- is, for example, negotiating with the Taliban.

~~~~~~~~~~

Is the picture beginning to emerge for you?

~~~~~~~~~~

A power outage today slowed me down significantly. All else will wait for another day...

~~~~~~~~~~

http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2012/1/22/january-22-2012-all-right.html