Current Postings
May 23, 2013: What Comes First?
There are several items of news requiring attention that can, in one respect or another, knock you off balance.
But let us start with this indisputable winner, because it will take the time required to read the rest of my post before you get your breath back.
Most of you probably know that a UK soldier, not in uniform, was killed yesterday on the street in broad daylight by two Islamic terrorists -- both of whom are believed to be native British, and at least one reportedly a convert to Islam -- who then proceeded to behead him with a meat cleaver, while calling “Allahu akbar.” Eye witnesses described the victim as having been hacked "like a piece of meat." The terrorists were shot by police, taken to a hospital, and then arrested.
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Many of the sites I pulled up when searching for data on this referred to a "likely terrorist event," or "what appears to be terrorism." So tentative, so cautious.
A British security officer said it seemed to be "ideologically motivated."
You think?
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Today, British Prime Minister David Cameron said (emphasis added):
"This was not just an attack on Britain and on the British way of life, it was also a betrayal of Islam and of the Muslim communities who give so much to our country..."
http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/UK-PM-Cameron-says-London-attack-was-betrayal-of-Islam-314142
Credit: ccurrentaffairs
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Now it strikes me that Cameron is just a tad afraid of guys like this. He did allude to "terrorism," but then he quickly disassociated what happened from Islam.
Well...let me tell you what one of the attackers said (emphasis added):
“We swear by almighty Allah we will never stop fighting you until you leave us alone. Your people will never be safe. The only reason we have done this is because Muslims are dying by British soldiers every day.
“We must fight them as they fight us. An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth...You people will never be safe. Remove your government, they don’t care about you. Do you think David Cameron is going to get caught in the street when we start busting our guns? Do you think your politicians are going to die?
“No, it’s going to be the average guy like you, and your children. So get rid of them. Tell them to bring our troops back so we, so you can all live in peace.”
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These terrorists, reports indicate, speak with a London accent. But they are of Nigerian heritage. The "us" is Muslims in Nigeria. What is clear here is the threat. The threat against the British people generally and against Cameron and the British government specifically.
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So lets jump to a report from three years ago by American Robert Leiken, author of Europe's Angry Muslims. In this report for CNN, entitled, "London breeding Islamic terrorists," he writes:
"Since the mid-90s, London has been a haven for foreign jihadi preachers, organizers, agitators and propagandists, many of them recipients of generous welfare benefits.
"'Londonistan' attracted second-generation British Muslims who spurned the folk Islam and customs of their immigrant parents but were repelled by a British culture they regarded as decadent and racist...
"About 100,000 British university students are Muslims. About a quarter of them belong to Islamic Societies, and half of those are active members.
"With the ascendancy of identity politics in Britain, Islamic Societies, rather like African-American student associations of yore, have become the hub of students professing to seek 'social justice.' But their idea of justice is to indict as the world's real terrorists the U.S. and Israel...
"Islamic Society members vary widely. They may be moderate Sufis, apolitical pietists, democratic Islamists, windy radicals or extremists like Abdul Mutallab. Many of them believe that violence is acceptable if their religion is under attack, which is little comfort, because the central plank of radical Islam is that their religion is under attack worldwide...
"But if we begin to point fingers at Britain, we will need two hands. The danger from Britain has its source in nearly every institution in British society: a Parliament that cannot pass counterterrorism legislation, police that do not arrest because evidence is not strong enough to convince a British court, security agencies that do not disclose to the media information about suspects, Islamic organizations that tell Muslims that such silence proves that the suspects have been falsely accused, a press that allows the public to believe such claims, jurors who then hold prosecutors to impossible standards and a once-glorious culture of tolerance that has lost its bearings.
"London has become a fertile field in the jihadi playground, along with Yemen, Pakistan and Somalia.
"Our great friend has allowed herself to become a strategic resource to our common enemies and a liability in the struggle against terrorism."
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/01/04/leiken.abdulmutallab.london/index.html
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So for Cameron to disassociate this terror attack from Islam is extremely disingenuous. For him to have cited, as he did, ostensibly "brave" pieties about how in Britain they know how to deal with such attacks by going on with their lives is pathetic. For he is refusing to grapple with Britain's essential problem. And in refusing he becomes part of the problem.
London is in a whole lot of trouble.
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Well, Secretary John Kerry is here, so can peace negotiations be far behind? Actually, yes...
Credit: JewishJournal
In greeting Kerry today, PM Netanyahu said they would be talking about Syria and Iran...
"But above all, what we want to do is restart the peace talks with the Palestinians.
“It’s something I want, it’s something you want. It’s something I hope the Palestinians want as well and we ought to be successful for a simple reason: When there’s a will, there's a way."
http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israel-raise-hopes-for-mideast-peace-restart/
I know. This is hard to swallow. But consider how blatant it is. With Russian rockets in Syria and the possibility of a nuclear Iran sitting on his shoulders, is it remotely plausible that "most of all" he wants to restart peace talks? This is Netanyahu playing his game, and playing it well enough so that Kerry voiced appreciation for his "seriousness."
This is what it's about for Netanyahu: appearing serious on the issue before the (very biased) court of world opinion. He's got to be the good guy, to Abbas's foot-dragging bad guy. Presumably, there are diplomatic benefits to this, even if negotiations never happen.
Seems that our chief negotiator, Tzipi Livni, is also playing a game. She was out there today cheerleading for talks with great fervor. But apparently she didn't count on what her close advisor, Tal Becker, of the Foreign Ministry, would tell Maariv :
He doesn't believe an agreement with the Palestinian Arabs will be possible for several years. In his opinion, this is the fault of Abbas, who is "not enthusiastic about returning to talks" and is "unwilling to pay the political price" for entering into serious negotiations.
Most likely, folks, there you have it. Kerry is still mum on what various innovative plans he has brought with him to "jump start" the talks.
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Yesterday I wrote about the difficulty of assessing Netanyahu's true intentions -- the quote above being yet another case in point. There is one matter on which he is taking a proper stand that I didn't mention in the course of that discussion and would like to return to now.
On May 16, I wrote about the decision of the government to attempt to apply legal status to four communities that had been considered "unauthorized." You can see details of the situation here:.
http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/16/may-16-2013-dead-serious.html
There is no question but that the fact that Moshe Ya'alon is now defense minister has a good deal to do with this government position, yet it is impossible to believe that this situation would have taken shape as it has if the prime minister had not signed off on it.
According to Times of Israel, Kerry contacted Netanyahu on this directly and protested. This interferes with his "peace plans" you see -- because Israel is supposed to be giving up (Heaven forbid) Judea and Samaria, not legalizing additional communities. The American Embassy in Tel Aviv also came out with a statement regarding the fact that this action was not constructive for peace.
There has been no stalling, however, no backing down, on the part of the Israeli government that I have been able to discover. Yesterday, representatives for the state had to appear at the High Court to answer the petition of Peace Now regarding the need to take down those four unauthorized communities. The state presented its position as previously outlined. The Court has not yet ruled.
There is however, concern about what went on in the courtroom:
For the very first time ever (Peace Now chair Yariv Oppenheimer said it's something he's never seen in all his years of petitioning the court on this issue), a representative of the US Embassy, Andrew Shut, attended the court session. Legally, he is within his rights to do so, but there is the suggestion of impropriety.
Nachi Eyal, Director of the Legal Forum for Israel protested that:
"..the very presence of a diplomat in a legal debate about internal matters of the State of Israel" aims to exert pressure and influence the judges’ decision.
“I think there is unhealthy and inappropriate intervention here on the part of the United States. What do the Americans want there? Do they want the judges to see that [the Americans] are there to oversee them?"
http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-pressures-israel-with-diplomats-presence-at-settlement-trial/
This sure sent my blood pressure up.
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Syria. The situation remains exceedingly volatile. Reports have come through that the Russian S-300 missiles may be on their way to Syria very soon -- but no one is talking and this cannot be confirmed. A very, very troublesome possibility.
In the town of Qusayr, a major battle has been waging for days, with outcome still uncertain. Both sides are claiming imminent victory and are receiving reinforcements. There is no question but that Iranians and members of Hezbollah are in the midst of the fight, alongside the forces of Assad. This town has been in rebel hands for some time, and Syrian troops are attempting to regain control there. The significance of this battle is that Assad's control of the town would clear the way for a direct line into Lebanon for transferring weapons to Hezbollah.
Syria's national television reported on Tuesday that Abu Omar, a top commander with the jihadist al-Nusra Front, was killed in battle in Qusayr.
Top Israeli military personnel have warned Assad that he will be responsible if he escalates the situation with Israel. And there have been warnings, as well, on the part of Israeli military regarding the fact that matters could seriously heat up at any point. We here in Israel are sitting on the edge...
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In a turn-around of its previous position, German intelligence now believes Assad will hold out. You can see the assessment here:
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One man who does not think it is a good thing is Ephraim Inbar, Director of the BESA Center. His concern is in breaking the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis.
I am not alone in my anguished conclusion (acknowledging that there is no good answer) that better Assad than the jihadist world-domination maniacs who would likely take over if Assad fell. But in the interests of presenting a balanced picture, I share here the link to Inbar's piece on the issue:
http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israels-interests-in-syria/
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And then, in closing, a thoughtful piece by Aaron David Miller, "The Myth of the Arab State" (emphasis added):
"From North Africa to the Levant, a process of state decentralization, perhaps even fragmentation, is underway that will have negative consequences for American interests, and there may be very little the U.S. can do about it.
"The three elements required for democratic life in any form simply aren't evident in the Arab world: leaders who rise above sectarian, religious and ethnic affiliations and govern in the best interests of the nation as a whole; institutions that are deemed authoritative, legitimate and inclusive and not mere playthings in the elites' struggle for power; and an accommodative process that contains and manages even the bitterest of debates without spilling over into violence or political pressures that paralyze national life."
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-myth-the-arab-state-8494
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Miller does not deal in any serious way with the historical background to these Arab states, which were, in some considerable measure, established by the Western powers by drawing arbitrary border lines for political reasons and without regard to internal cohesiveness. Nor does he talk about Islam as potentially a destabilizing factor in this situation.
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/23/may-23-2013-what-comes-first.html
Arlene
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PrintMay 22, 2013: "Peace Process"
The notion that there can be a viable negotiation process that will result in peace with "two states side-by-side" persists whatever the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. And so, no matter how weary we become of the delusion, we must continue to track efforts to make it happen, and combat it as effectively as possible.
As I wrote yesterday, Sec. of State Kerry is due here tomorrow. And so there is a flurry of activity -- or, more accurately, perhaps, a deluge of words espousing one position or another -- in anticipation of his arrival.
What we have most notably are the words of Minister of Finance Yair Lapid (head of Yesh Atid), who gave an interview to the NYTimes, on Monday in which he declared that he would do everything he can to advance the discourse on peace:
“Israelis want peace and security and Palestinians want peace and justice – these are two very different things, and this is the real gap we have to close."
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Let's pause here, to consider this statement. The Palestinian Arabs do NOT want peace and justice. They want the destruction of Israel. The failure to grapple with this reality is at the heart of the position of those who continue to push for negotiations.
As to "justice": A very basic misconception -- which has been fueled by PLO lies -- is that the Palestinian Arabs are entitled to the land beyond the '67 line, and that "justice" requires our giving it to them. They have no moral or legal or historical basis for this claim. The land is Jewish -- as history and legal documentation make clear.
See here for more: http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/336554365346/
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Actually, when it comes to "justice," the question I would like to pose to "two-state" advocates is why they imagine the Palestinian Arabs deserve a state within any parameters. There are probably thousands of ethnic groups -- groups with legitimate historical reality and distinct cultural traits -- who are without their own state. And yet the world does not clamor to give them sovereignty over the land on which they live.
What have the Palestinian Arabs done, even, remotely, to merit that sovereignty? What would a "Palestinian state" contribute in a positive way to the family of nations? What have the Palestinian Arabs done to develop a positive, constructive civil society that would form the basis of that state? Their failure in this regard is all the more striking because they have received so much international support and such huge international funding.
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At any rate...
Lapid is far too left for my taste. At a Yesh Atid faction meeting, he declared, "Whoever thinks we can have peace without a two-state solution is mistaken." In fashioning the negotiations as some sort of moral imperative -- “even if it’s controversial here, and even if it is hard to trust the Palestinians.” -- I believe he is the one who is badly and dangerously mistaken.
But to certain other members of his party, and to Tzipi Livni, he is not left enough. For he came out in the interview for an undivided Jerusalem:
"We didn't come here for nothing...Jerusalem is not a place; Jerusalem is an idea...Jerusalem is the capital of Israel."
What is more, he opposes changes in "settlement" policy and supports their natural expansion.
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But let me not inadvertently lend the impression that the government is solidly for that "two-state solution." There are many within the coalition who are opposed to the formation of a Palestinian state. This is certainly true of Habayit Hayehudi, headed by Naftali Bennett, and including members such as Uri Ariel and Urit Struck. Just yesterday, Struck, pictured below, declared, "Two states for two nations is not the official government position. It's not in the coalition guidelines..." (Emphasis added)
Credit: JPost
It is also so within Likud -- Tzipi Hotovely, Danny Danon, Ze'ev Elkin (who is now a deputy foreign minister), Ofir Akunis (who advanced legislation requiring a referendum for a deal), Gideon Sa'ar, Miri Regev, Yariv Levin, and others oppose that state.
And within Yisrael Beitenu -- Uzi Landau, Yair Shamir (son of former prime minister Yitzhak Shamir), etc.
Avidgor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beitenu and currently chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, once supported the "two-state" concept. But he said at a committee meeting yesterday that Abbas has lost his legitimacy, and that it is impossible to solve the conflict now -- it can only be managed.
Credit: Forward
"There's no magic solution to the conflict with the Palestinians. Why are foreign ministers always here? Why are they so obsessed with the Palestinian issue?" (emphasis added)
Lieberman's questions are good ones.
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About the prime minister himself, I will simply say this now. It is his MO to "play the game," something I've written about often enough. It is not his style to cross the Americans confrontationally for the most part. This can be dangerous, as it leads him down a slippery slope, and he may (inadvertently?) set precedents that will be regretted later.
And yet, it remains important not to assume that in playing that game he is necessary stating his true intentions. I'd be a millionaire many times over if I knew what his true intentions were. (I was told by one analyst yesterday that probably Netanyahu's closest advisors don't know his true intentions.) And so I reject rumors that are afloat -- as they were bound to be -- suggesting that he has caved; while they might contain some kernel of truth, they are based on no documentation that I am aware of.
I cringe at some of the things that he says, I recognize that sometimes he talks tough but doesn't follow through, and yet, I am mindful, for example, that he came out in support of a referendum on a "peace deal." At that time it occurred to me that he might see this as an out: "Gee, I was really for this, but the electorate is not in favor."
And he is holding out for parameters for that Palestinian state that he knows full well will never be accepted on the other side. I do not think he trusts the Palestinian Arabs or believes they would negotiate in good faith -- and in this respect differs substantially from Tzipi Livni. (Yes, I fully recognize that, infuriatingly, he appointed her to head negotiations; but he also appointed the tough, right wing Elkin as deputy foreign minister -- at a time when Lieberman is absent and there is no real foreign minister. So, go figure.)
My last thought here is that he is under the most incredible pressure right now, with regard to Syria, Russia, Iran and more. Tough decisions have to be made concerning when to hit armaments, even armaments from Russia, in Syria and when and if to hit Iran. I see him doing a very credible job in this respect, at least to date, and wonder if it's appropriate -- not to turn a blind eye, but -- to cut him a bit of slack with regard to criticizing his policies on "peace negotiations."
Unless we know all of the parameters -- and we most certainly do not -- there is no way for us to know if he is taking a stance supportive of Obama with the understanding or the hope that there's a quid pro quo in terms of Obama's support for us if we hit Iran. All speculative, I realize. But not entirely irrelevant. It may seem to him like a very unwise time to directly confront Obama, and I'm not sure he'd be wrong.
(Rest assured, if Netanyahu -- please, may he not -- were to take a stance that is outrageous, I'd be raising my voice, figuratively, his need to make decisions on Iran not withstanding.)
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Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ya'alon have already decided on one "good will gesture" before Kerry's arrival: The territorial limit into the Mediterranean for Arab fisherman from Gaza has been increased to six miles. In March, Ya'alon had cut the limit back to three miles after 14 rockets had been launched from Gaza. (The three-mile limit had been imposed after the Cast Lead operation in 2009, was increased as part of the ceasefire following the last operation, Pillar of Defense, and then was cut back again in March.)
I'm really not fond of these "gestures," in particular when they involve removing checkpoints or otherwise loosening security. But our government acts as if they are expected, and in this instance I'm not aware of risks to Israel incurred.
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There are a couple of positions vis-a-vis the formation of a Palestinian state that require a closer look.
One such position states that even though Judea and Samaria and eastern Jerusalem are all Jewish -- legally and historically -- once we document this fact, we ought to show our willingness to act for peace by surrendering it to the Arabs. Livni says something like this, and Max Singer, of the Hudson Institute, just wrote a column on this notion in last week's JPost Magazine.
This very perverse position makes me want to tear my hair out. Who but Jews would ever espouse such a stance: Oh, I can prove it's mine, incontrovertibly, but to keep matters quiet, to be nice, I will give it away. What's ours is ours. And it ought to be retained by us. Especially as what would be surrendered would be the very heart of the Jewish heritage. This would speak to a lack of national pride.
This need to please, to make sacrifices, to step back instead of defending our rights -- this, I firmly believe, is the legacy of 2,000 years in galut (diaspora). And it's not a healthy attitude. What is more, in demonstrating such a position we would be seen as weak by the Arabs and the gesture would not bring peace in any event.
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Then there is the even more horrendous notion just advanced by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, who proposed it in a talk on Friday at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC: first create a Palestinian state, and then make peace. Peace, he suggested, must be made between two equal states negotiating with each other.
I would remind him that the whole purpose of proposing a Palestinian state was to bring peace, within a "land for peace" concept. It turned out to be a failed concept. But what he's suggesting here is having Israel surrender land without securing peace. Even far leftists here in Israel understand that there would be establishment of a Palestinian state only with an "end of conflict" agreement.
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A slightly less horrific version of what Erdogan has suggested has come from Israeli politicians, including, most recently, Lapid: That is, create an "interim" Palestinian state with "temporary borders" until all issues can be resolved. Lapid proposed a three year time frame for determining permanent borders. The idea is to give the Palestinian Arabs something, to move past the status quo. But it's a non-starter.
Suppose all issues cannot be resolved, in three years or in 10, and we've already given them some sort of state. If all issues are not resolved, they'll claim the "right" to "resistance."
The Palestinian Arabs will never go for this -- out of concern that all they'd ever get in the end would be those "temporary" borders. Their position is just the reverse. Before negotiations are even begun, they want Israel to acknowledge the '67 line as the basis for those negotiations.
Lapid has called upon President Obama -- whose administration is seeking new approaches -- to endorse this idea. Lapid, however, also calls for Obama to endorse former president Bush's position of 2004, recognizing that some settlement blocs would be retained by Israel.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-calls-for-interim-peace-deal-with-palestinians/
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I believe I've mentioned this before, but with Kerry's arrival imminent, I wanted to point out again that the so-called Arab League Peace Plan has not been modified -- in spite of wide-spread impressions to the contrary.
A League delegation, which was in Washington a few weeks ago to negotiate changes in the plan, said that it might be possible to amend it so that "minor" land swaps would be instituted. But that suggestion then had to pass muster with the full League, and it did not.
Arab League head Nabil Elaraby has stated clearly that there have been no amendments to the 2002 plan.
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=594880
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And so, if you read something that suggests that Israel should be more forthcoming because now the Arabs have "moderated" their plan -- reject it out of hand. For, there has been no modification.
But even if there had been, it would have been such a minor modification that the entire plan -- which was presented on a "take it or leave it" basis and included "right of return" -- was still not anything for Israel to remotely consider.
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I will mention here that this is not the first time that the Arabs have lent the impression that they have modified a document, when in reality they have not. The most notable example: Arafat's widely accepted claim that he was removing clauses calling for Israel's destruction from the PLO charter. They're still there.
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And the latest word from our "peace partner"? On Monday, PLO negotiator Saeb Erekat, told a UN committee:
"Today in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem ... I can sum up the situation with one word - apartheid. Worse than that which existed in South Africa." (emphasis added)
This is not even a subtle misrepresentation, it is a bold lie -- and very typical of what we see from the PLO/PA. Does he really think anyone believes this? In eastern Jerusalem (there is no "East Jerusalem"), live some 250,000 Arabs. They have residency cards, are provided full rights and can move about all of the city -- in stores, restaurants, hospitals, etc. -- with no prohibitions and no danger. Some apartheid.
Replied Israeli Ambassador to the UN Ron Prosor, "The more the Palestinians continue to fertilize the soil with hatred toward Israel, the smaller the chances that the seeds of peace in the Middle East will sprout roots."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168204
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/22/may-22-2013-peace-process.html
May 21, 2013: Strong for All Things
There are multiple ways in which enormous strength is required of the Israeli government now. In no situation is this more the case than with regard to Syria and armaments shipped there, either for use by Syria or for transfer to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The situation is rife with threats, claims, charges, counter-charges, and rumors.
What seems to be the case is that Russia recently shipped its Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria. And this is bad news:
The JPost has cited Nick Brown, editor of IHS Jane's International Defense Review, who said, "They fly at just over 2.5 times the speed of sound, have a range of about 300 kilometers (185 miles) and pack a huge punch from their 200 kg (440 pound) warhead."
"They are hard to detect and ever harder to shoot down or decoy away, so they're a powerful tool for keeping warships a long way off the Syrian shore."
Russia had previously supplied Assad with Yakhont missiles in 2011, but they were an earlier, less accurate model.
http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/US-Russian-missiles-to-Syria-could-embolden-Assad-313518
Credit: Oratert
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A big question that hangs over this is whether Syria will attempt to transfer those Yakhont missiles to Hezbollah, which could use them to threaten Israeli ships and the Israeli gas fields in the Mediterranean -- which would just about be in reach.
It is exceedingly unlikely that Israel would sit still for such a transfer of weaponry. Last Thursday night, CIA chief John Brennan flew into Israel unannounced to consult with Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon about the escalating situation in Syria. Ya'alon made it clear that Israel had no intention of allowing advanced weapons to reach Hezbollah.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/cia-chief-pays-surprise-visit-to-israel/
Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal cited US officials who said they anticipated another series of Israeli strikes in Syria, against these missiles.
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On Sunday, the Times of London reported that Syria had trained sophisticated Tishreen missiles on Tel Aviv, which would be used if Israel entered Syrian air space again. It said that satellite images indicated this, but provided no source.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-training-advanced-missiles-on-tel-aviv-report/
At the Sunday Cabinet meeting, PM Netanyahu, refusing to be intimidated by this report, responded that:
"The Israeli government is acting in a responsible and measured way in order to secure the safety of Israel's citizens and prevent advanced weapons from reaching Hezbollah and the terror organizations. We will know how to do this in the future as well.
"The Middle East is experiencing one of its most sensitive periods in decades. We are following developments closely and are readying for any scenario."
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It's not possible to consider the current situation in Syria without looking at the role of the US -- or, more correctly, the US's failure to play a decisive role at a critical earlier point in the Syrian civil war -- as a factor in what's going on. The vacuum left by American inaction has permitted Russia to move more vigorously in this region.
The Russians, who want to be able to call the shots here, have even sent in warships. Five entered the Mediterranean last Wednesday, when the Russian foreign minister announced:
"The Russian Defense Ministry started setting up a special force of warships in the Mediterranean in order to protect Russia's interests in the region."
Yesterday, two additional Russian warships were brought in from its Black Sea fleet.
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US officials are concerned now that Russian shipments of armaments to Assad will allow him to prolong the war. But I was stuck by how clueless the Americans are when I read this comment by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez.
"We can watch from the sidelines as the scales are tipped in Assad's favor, or protect US national interests by supporting the armed opposition striving to build a new Syrian future."
http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/US-Russian-missiles-to-Syria-could-embolden-Assad-313518
"a new Syrian future," huh? This might have been true a year or 18 months ago. But now there are reports of Iraqi al-Qaeda forces over-taking other rebel forces in Syria. The Nusra Front was already Islamist, but is being splintered by the al-Qaeda forces that have a larger anti-Western, jihad, greater Islamic nation agenda.
Were the US to supply rebels with weapons, they might well end up in al-Qaeda hands.
Israel cannot say this -- is taking great care not to say this -- but me? I'm hoping Assad, as vile and immoral as he is, does not fall. For the very likely alternative is worse for this entire region.
Writes Reuters:
"... if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al-Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad."
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Syrias-Nusra-Front-eclipsed-by-Iraq-based-al-Qaida-313501
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At the same time, rumors that Russia had already sent S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria have not been confirmed. In fact, while Russia is saying that it must honor its previously signed contract to deliver them, it is not at all certain that this will happen.
Former head of IDF military intelligence Amos Yadlin is one of the analysts who is not convinced that Moscow will actually deliver the missile batteries..."in Yadlin’s assessment, the S-300s are just one piece in the complex face-off over Syria now playing out between Moscow and Washington."
http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-knows-exactly-what-the-fuss-is-about/
It is enormously irksome, when Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims that there's no problem because the S-300 is a defensive weapon, implying that Israel just has to stop attacking and all will be fine. He knows very well indeed that Israel attacks are not against Syria, but against the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah and are thus defensive in nature. He is, indeed, enormously disingenuous.
There is no way that Israel will permit the transfer of S-300 missiles, should they arrive in Syria, to be transferred to Hezbollah. They would, I imagine, have to be hit before installation was complete.
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Please see what Shoshana Bryen, of the Jewish Policy Center, has to say about this situation.
While referring to Putin's "disdain for the Obama Administration" (her description of Putin's treatment of Kerry makes fascinating reading), and saying that "neither Secretary of State Kerry nor the president he serves seem to understand Russia's goals in the region, and thus neither is prepared to uphold our own interests," in the end she believes Russia's policies are shortsighted and will fail. Putin, she says, has taken on the impossible task of controlling the Shiite-Sunni fighting.
Her vision is sharp and broad.
http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4286/russia-playing-a-losing-hand-like-a-winner
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One last mention of Syria here: Last night, IDF soldiers patrolling near the border with Syria in the Golan were fired upon. A vehicle was damaged, but no one was hurt. The IDF issued a statement that "IDF forces returned precise fire at the source of the gunfire. They reported a direct hit." The Syrian army had claimed that it destroyed the IDF military vehicle and everything in it.
"We will not remain silent regarding fire from Syria at our territory," said Defense Minister Yaalon.
~~~~~~~~~~
And then a correction: In my last posting, I had cited an article by Avigdor Haselkorn on the war over preemption. In it, he spoke about the fact that Iran is trying to get Fateh 110 missiles into Hezbollah's hands because this would "deter Israel from launching a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities by holding hostage Israel’s Dimona reactor as well as other strategic installations."
Well, it has been pointed out to me (and for this many thanks to Jeff D.) that the Fateh missiles have a range of 300 kilometers, but from where those missiles would be launched to Dimona is well over 300 km. I never would have caught that. Haselkorn's piece still has considerable validity, but I am eager to set the record straight here.
~~~~~~~~~~
I had hoped to address the other matter in which Israel requires strength: Kerry is coming on Thursday to move forward that ever elusive "peace process," and there is much to say about the political dynamics this issue engenders. But not today -- this posting is long enough. Hopefully, this will be my key focus when next I write.
~~~~~~~~~~
© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
May 16, 2013: Dead Serious
The NYTimes ran a piece yesterday in which it directly quoted a "senior Israeli official" -- who according to the JPost had contacted the Times (emphasis added):
"Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.
"If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate."
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/If-Assad-reacts-to-Syria-strike-Israel-will-retaliate-313265
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There was no response to this report from the prime minister's office, but I will tell you that these are not just idle words: Israel's government is absolutely determined to prevent sophisticated, game-changing weapons from reaching Hezbollah. The official hinted that more strikes such as the ones we (presumably) just saw may be in the planning.
Author Avigdor Haselkorn, writing in the JPost today, in "The war over preemption," has provided one of the clearest explanations I've seen yet as to the dynamics involved -- and why Israel ain't just foolin' here (emphasis is added):
Hezbollah -- allegedly already in possession of some 50,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching Israeli population centers -- does not need more of the same to hit Israeli cities, says Haselkorn.
"The solid-fuel, highly accurate, long-range (300 km) Fateh-110 missiles, armed with half-ton warheads, which was reportedly targeted by the IAF in the latest strike in Syria were not meant to attack Israeli cities. The Fateh-110 is a counter-force weapon designed to attack high value, pinpoint military and strategic targets. Indeed, it is all but certain that the provision of such missiles by Iran to Hezbollah is another step in the undeclared Israeli- Iranian war over preemption already underway.
"...by equipping Hezbollah with the latest version of Fateh-110 – the MOD 4 – Iran is hoping to accomplish three strategic goals: First, to deter Israel from launching a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities by holding hostage Israel’s Dimona reactor as well as other strategic installations identified in the foreign press as housing the Israeli nuclear arsenal and/or its delivery platforms...
"As well, Tehran is signaling Washington that any thought of a surgical strike on Iranian facilities is a dangerous hallucination as the outcome would be a nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, given Iran’s ability to accurately attack Israeli nuclear installations via Hezbollah’s upgraded missiles...
"Second, by providing its Lebanese proxies with highly accurate missiles the Iranians are attempting to turn the tables on Israel – they are developing their own capability to launch a preemptive strike against Israeli strategic facilities. Iranian leaders have already threatened to undertake such action...
"Third, by boosting Hezbollah’s stock of highly accurate missiles Tehran is seeking to enable its proxy to launch heavier salvos, perhaps in conjunction with the Syrian-provided Scud-D missiles reportedly already in Hezbollah’s arsenal. The aim is to assure hits on key strategic targets despite Israel’s missile defenses. Clearly, irrespective of its pooh-poohing of its capabilities, Tehran is worried by the recent stellar performance of the Iron Dome system.
"The bottom line is that Iran is laboring hard to prevent an Israeli preemption while developing its own option – via Hezbollah – of launching a preemptive attack on Israel’s most vital strategic assets.
"It should be noted that the Iranian effort is being pursued despite repeated Israeli warnings and forceful action to stop it. Some in Israel have interpreted this Iranian determination as forced by growing fears of the mullahs and their Hezbollah brethren that...they will not be able to make use of the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut corridor much longer to transport arms and fighters. However, a more important reason is Iran’s fear of an imminent Israeli preemptive attack. In spite of Iran’s public ridicule, it appears it views with mounting concern Israeli statements that 2013 would be a year of decision.
"For its part, Israel, by acting to destroy new additions to Hezbollah’s counter-force capabilities and the means to defend them...signaled its determination to keep its preemptive option open. Further, the operational successes of the IDF’s recent military undertakings in Syria communicate to Tehran the credibility of Israel’s intentions and capabilities in this regard. Thus, as long it races toward the bomb, Iran is likely to persist if not escalate its efforts to block and/or counter the Israeli preemptive option.
"The ongoing conflict over preemption has produced two paradoxes. First, even before any military strike had been unleashed against a nuclear facility, armed conflict has erupted. The Israeli threat to use force as a last resort to stop Iran’s nuclear march had the effect of forcing Jerusalem to exert its military muscle without delay, ostensibly to preserve the final option..."
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/The-war-over-preemption-313261
So it's going to get tougher before it's over, but in point of fact, Israel is already at war with Iran.
~~~~~~~~~~
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu took action of another sort in an attempt to prevent an escalation of the situation in Syria with a potential shift in the balance of power: On Tuesday morning he flew to the Black Sea city of Sochi to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with regard to the announced intention of Russia to sell state-of-the-art anti-aircraft S-300 missiles to Damascus.
Netanyahu was accompanied by National Security Council Head Ya'akov Amidror, Head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, and Deputy Foreign Minister Ze'ev Elkin, a native Russian speaker. Press was not permitted to participate. Kochavi is believed to have provided Putin with intelligence regarding the situation in Russia.
~~~~~~~~~~
All we have from that meeting is a joint press conference during which they declared their intention to keep in touch, both personally and between special services.
Credit: alarabiya
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As for Putin, it is clear -- and this is hardly new -- that he is motivated at least in part by a desire to subvert Western, and particularly, American involvement in the area. We might say that he gave the old one-two to Obama with the announcement of intention to sell those missiles, which followed almost immediately an announcement about Russia and the US working together to address the crisis in Syria:
Last week Moscow and Washington had announced an agreement to facilitate political dialogue between the Assad regime and rebels, and to facilitate an international conference on Syria.
(A reflection of the tenuous relationship between Russia and the US can be found in the arrest on Tuesday by the Russians of CIA agent Ryan Christopher Fogle, who was working in the American Embassy in Moscow and was caught in a sting operation when trying to recruit Russian double-agents.)
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The placement of those anti-aircraft missiles in Syrian hands would be no small matter for Israel, and worse still should they be transferred to Hezbollah.
I have picked up reports -- unconfirmed, for example from Al-Quds Al-Arabi -- that the missiles may already be in Syria. In one version, it was said that only Russian technicians were managing them, in another, there was indication that Syrian technicians were already trained.
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For the first time this morning, mortar shells fired from Syria hit Mount Hermon in the Golan. There were no casualties.
Credit: Greenprophet
And, for the first time it is clear that the mortars didn't cross the border with Syria accidentally, during the course of fighting between Assad's troops and rebels.
This time, a group by the name of (are you ready?) Shahid Brigades of the Abd al-Kajr al-Husseini Jihad Brigades which is part of the "Free Palestine Movement" took credit via a video it released. It said that the mortars were fired for "Nakba Day," which was just observed by Palestinian Arabs as a day of mourning that marks Israel's founding.: "We tell the Zionists that we are opening a campaign of revenge.”"
I have no information about the source of fire being identified and destroyed. IDF patrols in the area have increased and the IDF is now re-evaluating the earlier determination that the other mortars hit Israeli soil by accident.
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It was announced just days ago that the Civil Administration (which means the administration of Judea and Samaria that works under the Ministry of Defense) was working diligently to establish a new Palestinian Arab city near Jericho, reportedly to be called Nu'aimah, which would house tens of thousands of residents and require the transfer of almost 2,000 dunam (500 acres) of land from the Jordan Valley Regional Council to the PA for the project.
The Yesha Council responded to this insanity immediately:
"The state of Israel is advancing programs for thousands of dwelling units in Area C [which is under full Israeli control] while there are wide sections of Areas A and B [under full and partial PA control] where they can be settled and they are stopping the tenders for building for Israeli settlement in Area C."
Before I had the opportunity to write about this, came the announcement that Minister of Defense Moshe Ya'alon has frozen the project. According to Israel National News:
"MK Motti Yogev (Bayit Yehudi), who heads a subcommittee of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee which deals with issues pertaining to Judea and Samaria, contacted Yaalon...asking for details about the project. According to Ma’ariv, Yaalon told Yogev that upon learning of the plan he ordered that it be immediately stopped.
"An Israeli defense official confirmed the details, telling Ma’ariv that the Defense Minister is interested in learning the details of the plan and any consequences that may result from its application, and has asked that it be delayed until he can formulate a position on the issue."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168021
Well then, a small sigh of relief and a tentative "bravo" to Minister Ya'alon. Now we'll have to wait to see what position he formulates.
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If truth be told, actions by the government are so schizoid that it's difficult to determine precisely what policy truly is -- or, for that matter, where our prime minister stands.
Here we have some very good news with an announcement that the State is seeking to authorize four communities -- called outposts -- in Judea and Samaria. The announcement came in a statement to the High Court submitted on Tuesday with regard to a Peace Now petition with regard to six communities. Good old Peace Now had demanded removal of them all.
The four communities: Givat Assaf, in the Binyamin region of Samaria; Givat Haroeh, one of the largest unauthorized communities, in the Shomron; Maale Rekhavam, in the Gush Etzion region; and Mitzpe Lakhish, in the South Hebron Hills.
Three had been determined to have been built on State land, so there was no legal barrier to their authorization.
Some portion of the fourth, Givat Assaf (pictured here), was built on what had been privately owned Arab land, but residents of this community -- some 30 families -- had told the court that they had purchased that land.
Now the State has accepted the residents claims. According to the JPost, orders had come from the "upper political echelon" to the Civil Administration to "weigh the possibility of legalizing Givat Assaf."
Credit: Flash 90
http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/State-seeks-approval-of-four-West-Bank-outposts-313292
The State is working out compromises for the other two communities mentioned in the Peace Now petition, as well: In Mitzpe Yitzhar, near Yitzhar in the hills of the Shomron, two homes built on private Palestinian Arab property have been taken down and a third home will also be demolished; the implication here is that ultimately authorization may be possible for this community as well.
In the case of Ramat Gilad, some of its homes are on State land and an agreement has been reached with its residents for many of the homes to be moved to a different part of its hilltop location.
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Contrast the upbeat position by the government, above, with this shameful action. I had mentioned the issue of an Israeli failure to assert sovereignty the other day, and here we are:
A plan had been set in place to bring Jewish children to the Temple Mount today, as an educational follow-up to Shavuot, which was a time when first fruits were brought to the Temple.
In response to chatter on Islamic websites that the children would be met by rioters, police closed entry to the Temple Mount to all non-Muslims, out of concern for "public safety."
Wrong, wrong, wrong. I don't care how many police or soldiers would have had to have been called out to protect the children, it should have been done. To cave before threats of violence, so that Jewish rights are denied, is a bad move.
What is more, Jews who made it to the Mount over Shavuot (yesterday) and the day prior were severely harassed by Muslims and received scant police protection. At one point Jewish entry at the Mughrabi Gate was blocked by Muslims. When a riot broke out, the Jews were removed from the Mount.
I am ashamed to write this, but I must. What is ours must be claimed as ours, and our rights made clear.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168039
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
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May 13, 2013: Life Goes On
Tomorrow night begins the holiday of Shavuot (one day here in Israel, two days elsewhere), which celebrates the receiving of the Torah (or the Commandments) and is marked by study through the night.
Credit: ou
A good time, once again, to mark our priorities: to remember what comes first and what must guide us. A time to turn our focus heavenward and step away from the political nonsense of every day.
And so, to all, a Chag Shavuot sameach.
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But for today, there is still that political nonsense...
Right now, we seem to be a whipping boy for the Syrians. On both sides. It's a great irony.
The rebels are saying that we are conspiring to keep Assad in power. The Turkish daily Zaman reports that the claim was made by Abdulkader Saleh, commander of the al-Tawhid Brigade, which, I am reading, has ties with the Muslim Brotherhood:
"The opposition was going to take over arms, so Israel attacked. There is evidence pointing to this. There were some high-ranking officers with whom [the opposition forces] got into contact. [Those officers] were going to defect from [the Assad administration], handing over arms to the opposition. Israel hit these posts in fear that the opposition would take over the arms."
"...This assault, of course, was intended to support the Assad administration."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167965
This is, of course, not exactly what was going on with the alleged Israeli hit on Iranian weaponry in Syria. The Israeli concern was and is that major game-changing weaponry such as sophisticated missiles not fall into hands of terrorists groups, whether Hezbollah or jihadist groups associated with the Syrian rebels, who would then turn those weapons on Israel. This was not about the sort of weapons defecting Syrian officers would likely be in a position to turn over to the opposition for use in fighting Assad.
What caught my eye, however, is that this rebel commander said that, "Assad [father and son, actually] has protected Israel's border for 40 years." This is as I wrote, and is one more indication that if rebels take Syria, they will feel no compunction about attempting to move into Israel.
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What intensifies the irony is the claim by the Syrian government that they can now go into the Golan whenever they want. According to the Syria SANA news agency, Syria’s Information Minister, Omran al-Zoubi, claims this right because of Israel's act of aggression against Syria in hitting Syrian sites (that is, storage depots with weapons).
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167962
But, as was made very clear at the time, any Israeli attack on those sites (not officially acknowledged) would be to prevent a transfer of weapons and was not intended as an attack on Syria.
This is mostly saber-rattling, but....
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Putative PA president Mahmoud Abbas is doing his own version of saber-rattling these days. His accusation is that Israel is attempting to harm the Al-Aksa Mosque on the Temple Mount:
"If Israel is dreaming about establishing facts on the ground through its daily attacks against the Al-Aksa Mosque, then it is deluded.
"Eastern Jerusalem is our capital city, Al-Aksa belongs to us, the Church of the Holy Sepulcher belongs to us, and we will not accept [the Israelis'] harassment."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167957
This, undoubtedly, is the come-back for recent statements regarding Jewish rights to pray on the Temple Mount. If our leaders are serious about asserting on rights, on the Mount and elsewhere, we must understand that the battle ahead will not be easy. But, it is necessary.
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I say "If" because of news that has broken today that is generating more than a little unease.
The major story is that secret talks were held two years ago between the Israel and the PA. Avi Issacharoff, writing in the Times of Israel, reports on information he has secured via an interview with the head of PLO Executive Committee, Yasser Abed Rabbo. And so even as I report on this, we must remember that it all comes from Abed Rabbo.
Credit: AFP/Abbas Momani
What he says is that there were secret meetings between Israel and the PA in late 2010 and early 2011 either in order to conduct negotiations or initiate them. A series of meetings was held between Yitzhak Molcho, Netanyahu's envoy, and Abed Rabbo, at Molcho's home in Israel. And then Prime Minister Netanyahu himself met with Rabbo, after which communication terminated.
"According to Abed Rabbo...Netanyahu seemed ready to renew negotiations within the framework of two states based on the June 4, 1967, lines. But the prime minister subsequently backed away from the contacts and the channel was discontinued."
Not unsurprisingly, there is no comment from the prime minister's office.
~~~~~~~~~~
Abed Rabbo is reported as saying, with regard to his meetings with Molcho:
"We discussed all the issues. But I sat and demanded in those meetings that Israel present its map for a two-state solution concept, and publicly declare its willingness to speak about the 1967 lines as the framework for the meetings. Molcho was not prepared to present a map and the meetings were truly exhausting, a lot of chatter without agreement." (Emphasis added)
http://www.timesofisrael.com/revealed-netanyahus-secret-talks-with-the-palestinians/
Is Abed Rabbo's description of a Netanyahu who "seemed ready to renew negotiations within the framework of two states based on the June 4, 1967 lines" consistent with the picture of a Molcho who would not present a map and talked a great deal with no agreement?
“Molcho," says Abed Rabbo, "was willing to include a military official in the meetings, a map expert who would present Israel’s security demands to me. Molcho emphasized in the meetings the importance of the Jordan Valley, settlement blocs, and early-warning stations on West Bank mountains. I ruled this option out. He claimed that he wanted to show me these considerations on a map, but I told him that Israel’s security concerns are not a starting point — it’s a non-starter and under the pretense of ‘security,’ you can claim anything. I made it clear that, first of all, we need to agree to speak about 1967 lines, and then start debating security issues, or even both in parallel.
"...From our standpoint, it was possible to discuss borders and security issues, but it cannot be that ‘security considerations’ would determine the borders." (Emphasis added here and above)
Was Molcho, on behalf of the prime minister, prepared to talk about giving away the store? Myself, I would not talk about surrendering a square centimeter, but it doesn't sound like he was conveying a readiness to give it all away.
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Abed Rabbo describes a Netanyahu who was prepared to begin serious negotiations:
"Netanyahu didn’t rule anything out. He mostly listened. He asked me about the idea of a joint committee to manage issues related to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem — as Olmert had suggested...In the end I said to him, ‘If you want to start something serious, if you agree to the 1967 borders as a basis, including Jerusalem, then we can talk about the other things.'
“He asked if we were ready to start negotiations immediately. I said yes...
"He said to me, 'Give me two days and I’ll get back to you.' We said goodbye. He asked me to send his regards to Abu Mazen. And from that point on, I didn’t hear from Bibi or Molcho. A year later, I relayed him a message through a third party that I’ve been sitting waiting by the phone for a year, but Netanyahu did not respond."
We could speculate unendingly on what was going on here. Maybe Netanyahu was testing the PA; maybe he was serious and then thought better of it or was dissuaded. Perhaps Abed Rabbo read more into Netanyahu's words than was intended. The meetings were not documented.
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There are those who will panic at this, because Netanyahu allegedly met in secret with a PLO representative and asked about a joint committee for Temple Mount issues, as Olmert had proposed. But what I see in the end is that the prime minister did not pursue those talks and stonewalled Abed Rabbo. And, in fact, as the meetings were not documented, he left nothing on the record to weaken Israel's position. And there were no maps.
In point of fact, this interview may have been provided by Abed Rabbo right now as a political tool: a way to make Netanyahu look less than forthcoming on negotiations and thus bring pressure to bear.
I will state here what I have said many times: I do not always trust Binyamin Netanyahu. He has given me scant reason to do so. And, demonstrating a particular weakness, he is all too ready to show himself as accommodating -- which leads him down a dangerous and slippery slope. (See more on this below.)
I have never believed, however, that he is an Ehud Olmert clone, simply itching to give our country away. And, whatever my unease, whatever my distress, I have not yet seen clear evidence that he is that clone. I pray that I never do.
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What is disconcerting, annoying, worrisome is the announcement that the prime minister has ordered a delay-- of "at least three weeks" (we shouldn't hold our collective breath) -- in issuing tenders for building 1,500 units in Ramat Shlomo, which is over the Green Line, even though all procedures were in place.
Credit: Ariel Jerozolimski/The Jerusalem Post
According to the JPost, the holdup was because of "political sensitivity." You may remember when Vice President Biden was here and a routine announcement came out about building plans in Ramat Shlomo. US officials responded as if Israel had deliberately mortified their vice president, and used this issue to generate quite a scene (with Hillary Clinton doing quite a bit of that generating).
Ramat Shlomo construction was held up for some time after that, which was unfortunate, because new housing is needed in that neighborhood. It's not all about politics here, folks -- it's about needing places to live. If the project was now set to go forward, it should have gone forward.
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I will add here in closing, with regard to fears of our prime minister "giving away" eastern Jerusalem, that, to the very best of my understanding legislation is on the books since November 2010 that requires approval in a public referendum and the votes of at least 60 Knesset members before any withdrawal from East Jerusalem or the Golan Heights.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3988447,00.html
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
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May 12, 2013: Calling Your Attention...
To a variety of matters, each briefly.
I begin with the Borovsky family -- the widow and five orphans left behind when Evyatar was brutally murdered by a terrorist at Tapuach Junction. Murdered for no reason other than that he was Jewish.
Credit: IsraelToday
An appeal has gone out for funds for this family, and I ask you to consider helping, if you are moved to do so.
The fund was established by Rabbi David Dudkevich, rabbi of Yitzhar (home of the Borowvskys; Rabbi Elyakim Levanon, rabbi of the Shomron Religious Council and others.
Visit the secure website www.mekimi.org.il and learn about tax deductions and how to donate. It is essential to specify Fund no. 1515 for the Borovsky family. The website can be accessed in Hebrew or English (see upper left of homepage).
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And now a number of other issues to which you might want to direct your attention. We'll start with this from Palestinian Media Watch:
"In a ceremony celebrating its 150th anniversary, the International Red Cross together with the Palestinian Red Crescent planted 150 trees bearing the names of "veteran prisoners." The Palestinian Authority uses the term "veteran prisoners" to refer to those who have been in jail the longest, and in most cases are serving life sentences for murder or multiple murders."
See the full story here: http://palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=8965
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Barry Rubin has written an important piece called "Why Benghazi Is Overwhelmingly Important" (emphasis added):
"There is something terribly and tragically and importantly symbolic about the Benghazi attack that may be lost in the tidal wave of details about what happened on September 11, 2012, in an incident where four American officials were murdered in a terrorist attack. This point stands at the heart of everything that has happened in American society and intellectual life during the last decade.
"And that point is this:
"America was attacked once again on September 11, attacked by al-Qaeda in an attempt to destroy the United States — as ridiculous as that goal might seem. Yet: the U.S. government blamed the attack on America itself.
"Other reasons can be adduced for the official position that what happened that day was due to a video insulting Islam rather than a terrorist attack, but this is the factor of overwhelming importance. It transformed the situation in the following ways:
– "Muslims were the victims of American misbehavior, a point emerging from the administration’s wider worldview of U.S. aggression and Third World suffering...
– "'Hate speech' and racism (as 'Islamophobia' is often reconfigured) were the cause of troubles.
– "While freedom of speech and such liberties should be defended, they must be limited in some ways to prevent further trouble.
– "America’s proper posture should be one of apology, as in the advertisements that Secretary of State Hilary Clinton made for the Pakistani and other media.
– "The 'misblaming,' to coin a word, of the video showed terrorist groups that not only can they attack Americans, but they can do so without fear of punishment … or even of blame! As the House of Representatives’ hearings show, the misattribution of responsibility also delayed the FBI’s investigation, perhaps conclusively so.
– "The exercise of American power has been the cause of America’s problems, not an excess of appeasement...
– "The solution to these Middle East conflicts required a change in U.S. policies in order to avoid further offense. This meant distancing from Israel and even historic Arab allies, showing respect and encouragement even for “moderate” Islamist movements, and other measures.
"In short, this is the stance of blaming America and exonerating its enemies that has seized hold of the national consciousness. Of course, parallel responses met the Boston bombing, as the mass media and academics scrambled to give alternative explanations to the terrorists’ motives.
"The truth is, however, extremely simple: the United States faces a revolutionary Islamist movement that will neither go away nor moderate itself.
"To understand this movement and its ideology, how it is and is not rooted in Islam, its weaknesses and divisions, the forces willing to help combat it, and the ways to devise strategies to battle it is the prime international need for the moment. It is as necessary to do these things for revolutionary Islamism today as it was to do the same things regarding Nazism in the 1930s and 1940s and for communism in the 1940s and 1950s.
"Yet the U.S. armed forces and other institutions are forbidden from holding this inquiry."
http://pjmedia.com/barryrubin/2013/05/09/why-the-benghazi-issue-is-overwhelmingly-important/
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I do not know if Rubin had in mind the case of Lt. Col. Matthew Dooley when he wrote this last sentence. But perhaps not coincidentally, at the same time that I read Rubin's article, I encountered information about Dooley's very disturbing situation.
Lt. Col. Allen West (ret.) served one term as a Congressman from FL, and then lost his re-election bid in what has been seen by some as dubious circumstances. Congressman West has moved on to a new venture: Next Generation TV. West has just run a program on what happened to Lt. Col. Dooley. See the genuinely frightening story here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HlL1zQZtg8&feature=youtu.be
This merits your careful attention.
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And let me end with end with this information, provided by Lori Lowenthal Marcus, on the IRS punishing conservative non-profits in the US:
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
May 9, 2013: Hold Fast to the Hope
With all that remains disturbing (and I'll get to it), there are also good things happening within the government and the Knesset. Good people who are ready to fight for Jewish rights.
Yesterday, during an AFSI reception at the Knesset, Deputy Minister of Transportation Tzipi Hotovely (Likud) shared her intentions to fight for the right of Jews to pray on Har Habayit (the Temple Mount).
While at a celebratory plenum session of the Knesset, Speaker of the Knesset Yuli Edelstein (Likud) expressed the hope that the issue of Jewish prayer on Har Habayit would be resolved by the next Yom Yerushalayim:
"All of us must make sure that the city of three religions, which we are proud of for having freedom of worship, should be open to every Jew in every place that they want to pray."
And the Knesset Internal Affairs Committee held a special meeting about Har Habayit in honor of Yom Yerushalayim. Elhanan Glatt, director general of the Ministry of Religious Services, told the Committee that his office was examining ways to arrange for Jewish prayer on Har Habayit.
Credit: Bibleplaces
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Yes, and yes! Jewish prayer on Har Habayit. Enough voices speaking out so that one begins to hope that maybe, maybe at long last there will be action.
It's such a no-brainer -- that Jews should be able to pray at the place that is holiest for them, the site of the Temples. And an outrage of such immense proportions that we Jews cannot pray there.
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There is, of course, a convoluted history to this situation, as there often is with what goes on here. No matter what their claims, the issue for Muslims regarding Jewish prayer on Har Habayit is political and not religious.
If Israel were not a power with which they contend, you think they'd care if Jews prayed there? For a long time, before Israel liberated Har Habayit, the Muslims paid it little heed. Their holiest city is Mecca, with Medina second. But let Jews have it?? Never.
Perhaps the comment by MK Ibrahim Sasour (United Arab List -Ta'al) during yesterday's Knesset Internal Affairs Committee meeting says it all:
"Jews in Israel need to understand that one day Jerusalem will return to Palestinians and Muslims. The solution is to maintain the status quo."
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MK Moshe Feiglin (Likud), Deputy Speaker of the Knesset, explained the situation:
"The Wakf's problem isn't prayer, but the sovereign symbolism of prayer. As far as they are concerned, [Jewish prayer] eats away at the total Muslim rule over the Temple Mount." (Wakf = Islamic trust, an administrative body)
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"Total Muslim rule over the Temple Mount" in a Jerusalem that is under Israeli sovereignty?
Very quickly after we liberated Har Habayit in 1967, Defense Minister Moshe Dayan made an exceedingly foolish decision. Meeting with members of the (Jordanian-controlled) Islamic Wakf, he ceded day to day administrative control of the Mount to the Muslims. This was done, presumably, as a "good-will gesture," (a loaded term) following the war.
Whatever Dayan's "good-will" in the matter, and hopes of cementing good relations with the Arabs, it has to be noted that he was not a religious man. Thus, he viewed Har Habayit as having "historical" significance and not religious -- his own words make this clear. For him, personally, a Jewish presence on the Mount had limited import.
"Day to day administrative control" does not mean sovereignty, however. This was retained by Israel. And this is what is constantly being undermined by the Wakf, which acts as if it does have full sovereignty there.
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Part of Dayan's mistake was in assuming that there would be an appreciative attitude on the part of the Muslim Arabs for what he had acceded, and that they would sit with Israel in a cooperative spirit. He did not understand the Arab mentality, did not anticipate what was going to transpire, and did not imagine, certainly, that the Muslims on the Mount would do everything they could to destroy archeological artifacts that document the ancient Jewish presence there. Dayan greatly valued such artifacts.
At any rate, Dayan did not permit the Israeli flag to fly on the Mount (stupid, stupid, stupid) and was opposed to Jewish prayer there. IDF Chief Rabbi Shlomo Goren attempted to institute prayer, holding a service on the Mount on Tisha B'Av. Dayan intervened and the status quo of no Jewish prayer on the Mount was on its way to being established.
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There are, I must note, further complications: Because Har Habayit -- the site of the Temples -- holds special sanctity, and because it cannot be determined with absolute certainty where the Temples stood (in the location of the Dome of the Rock, it is commonly thought), and because there are those who believe that the Shekhinah (presence of the Almighty) still resides there, some rabbis believe it should be forbidden to Jews to ascend to the Mount. Others maintain that ritual immersion is necessary before ascending.
Certainly, when ascending the Mount, a Jew should be guided so as to avoid walking where it is believed that the Temples once stood.
It is my observation that over time more rabbis have begun to permit ascension to the Mount. The religious issue cannot be separated from the political one, and the presence of Jews on the Mount in order to establish Jewish rights to this holiest of places is of great importance.
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The Wakf, when Dayan dealt with it, was Jordanian-controlled, and remained so for many years. But with the Oslo Accords in 1993, the Palestinian Arabs asserted themselves, gaining further influence over matters.
Then with the peace treaty with Jordan in 1994, according to the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, "Jordan conditioned its signature on inclusion of a clause which gave Amman a preferred status in future Israel-Arab talks about the Temple Mount." ( http://jcpa.org/jpsr/s99-yc.htm )
It is not clear precisely how extensive this "preferred status" is, but this is particularly troublesome. I have observed instances in which Israeli decisions that impinged even indirectly on Temple Mount issues were influenced by Jordan.
In particular that was the case with regard to the building of a permanent bridge to the Mughrabi Gate of the Mount. Israel was going to build that bridge in 2011, and then halted when Jordan protested. One had to wonder why the prime minister was so intimidated by Jordanian demands -- especially with regard to a gate that approaches the Mount but isn't even on it.
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For some period of time, I've been told, there were actually two Wakfs -- the Jordanian and the Palestinian Arab, with rivalry between the two. But very recently the PA acceded authority to Jordan.
And just in the last couple of days, we've seen tension with Jordan over Mount-related issues:
For Yom Yerushalayim, the number of Muslim worshippers on the Mount was limited so that there would be opportunity for Jews to ascend for celebration of the day. What is more, the Mufti was detained for a period (ultimately not arrested) because of suspicion that he was involved in throwing a chair at Jews on the Mount.
This so enraged the Jordanians that their Parliament passed a non-binding resolution calling for the Israeli ambassador to be sent back and their ambassador to Israel to be called home. President Shimon Peres then rushed to reassure them that all agreements on holy sites would be respected, and that we should be friends, etc. etc.
What he actually said -- "We respect all religions' holy places" -- was meant to assure the Jordanians that Arabs would have access to the Mount. But it could, however also mean that we will respect OUR rights to Jewish holy places.
But never mind....
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As to our Jewish rights to pray on the Mount, the High Court of Justice has upheld that right (#2955/07). There is a proviso, however, that the police can restrict this right for reasons of security. What has happened then is that the Israeli police have determined that in order to avoid Arab unrest, riots and who-knows-what, it is better to deny Jews their rights to pray. It is actually Israeli police who will arrest a Jew who attempts to pray on the Mount.
Would Arabs riot if Jews attempted to pray there regularly? No doubt, as things stand now. But there comes a point at which it doesn't matter. Jews cannot be routinely denied essential rights out of fear of what the Arabs will do, or say about us. This must be worked out, or confronted.
~~~~~~~~~~
This issue of asserting Jewish rights on Har Habayit is only one of several involving our sovereignty in the land of Israel. I will be returning to this topic again and again.
Before moving on to other subjects, however, I want to tell a short, related story:
I mentioned above the special meeting yesterday of the Knesset Internal Affairs Committee. Before the Committee began its business, a short film in honor of Yom Yerushalayim was played, which showed the liberation of Har Habayit by Israeli paratroopers in 1967.
Some Arab Knesset members who were present grew incensed, saying that the film was "insulting," and demanding that it be stopped.
When I first learned of this story, via a news report, it was not clear if their demand was met. I investigated, and learned, to my considerable relief, that it was not, and that, in fact, Jewish MKs turned and yelled at the Arabs.
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I won't deal here with the issue of what Arabs who think thus are doing in the Israeli Knesset. I simply want to use this incident to demonstrate the chutzpa of Israeli Arab so-called leadership. Their attitude, as reflected here, is not unusual.
And this permits me to make a very significant point that is often lost:
Jews have NATIONAL rights in Israel. Political rights. For Israel is a Jewish state. Arabs, as Israeli citizens, have individual rights: Civil rights, human rights, religious rights. They do NOT have national rights, rights as a people. But, deliberately confusing the issue, they often act as if they do.
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Yesterday, when writing about the freeze that the prime minister is apparently instituting at some level, I mentioned that Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon had said, the day prior, that he hadn't heard of any freeze.
Yesterday, in a public gathering, Danny Danon said, "We must unfreeze the freeze." Ooooh...
I was not there, but I spoke with highly reliable sources that had heard him. The irony for me was that he was making this statement at just about the same time that I was writing in my posting that he said there was no freeze. So quickly did his position shift, so quickly is this situation shifting.
The full parameters of what Netanyahu has instructed or intends are still not clear -- although the JPost is now reporting that what is involved are tenders for public housing projects in four communities in Judea and Samaria: Efrat, Ariel, Givat Ze’ev and Karnei Shomron.
Nor is it clear how Danon would like to go about unfreezing the freeze.
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The good news, as reported by the JPost, is this:
The Defense Ministry on Wednesday approved for deposit plans for the construction of 296 homes in the West Bank settlement of Beit El with the Higher Planning Council of Judea and Samaria.
The Civil Administration must now advertise the plans in a newspaper, after which begins a 60-day period for the public to register objections, before the plans receive final approval from the council...
"Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu promised to build the homes in June, as part of a deal reached with 33 families living in the Ulpana outpost located at the outskirts of the settlement, whose homes were slated for demolition as the result of a High Court of Justice ruling.
"The settlers agreed to leave their homes without physical resistance, in exchange for a pledge by government officials to build 296 new homes."
Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon will have to sign off on this, but I do not anticipate this as a problem.
~~~~~~~~~~
This news about building follows other news of 90 units in Beit El that have been fully cleared for construction. This is also part of the Ulpana compensation package.
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I really don't want to make too much of Steven Hawking's decision to boycott Israel. But this information is worth sharing:
“Hawking’s decision to join the boycott of Israel is quite hypocritical for an individual who prides himself on his whole intellectual accomplishment. His whole computer-based communications system runs on a chip designed by Israel’s Intel team. I suggest if he truly wants to pull out of Israel he should also pull out his Intel Core i7 from his tablet,” said Nitsana Darshan-Leitner of Shurat HaDin, an Israeli law center that represents victims of terrorism.
"Hawking, 71, has suffered from motor neuron disease for the past 50 years, and relies on a computer-based system to communicate." Darshan-Leitner says the equipment has been supplied by Intel in Israel since 1997.
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
May 6, 2013: The Eternal City
Jerusalem. And today we are celebrating Yom Yerushalayim -- Jerusalem Day -- the anniversary of the liberation by Israeli troops of eastern (historic Jewish) Jerusalem, in 1967.
Credit: JerusalemShots
May we never forget the blessing that has been restored to us. This is a time for prayers of gratitude for the gift of this city, which truly is the soul of the Jewish people.
The Jerusalem Day parade leads people through the streets of the city and into the Old City for dancing with flags at the Kotel:
Credit: IsraelHayom
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In celebration of the unification of Jerusalem:
http://www.aish.com/jw/j/90565359.html
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On the 28th of Iyar, the third day of the Six Day War, when Lt. Gen. Motta Gur. IDF Chief of Staff -- and the paratroopers he led in the capture of the Old City -- reached the Temple Mount, he sent out a message:
"Har Habayit b’yadenu! Ani chozer: Har Habayit b’yadenu!
"The Temple Mount is in our hands! I repeat, the Temple Mount is in our hands!"
Credit: Flickr
You can hear an historic recording of this event, which includes prayers by Rabbi Shlomo Goren, IDF Chief Rabbi -- including prayers for those soldiers who fell in taking the city and a Shehechayanu, prayer of thanksgiving for reaching that day -- and shofar blasts.
Credit: UnitedwithIsrael
A translated transcript is provided:
http://israelperspectives.blogspot.com/2006/05/jerusalem-day-broadcast-of-liberation.html
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Today my prayer is that every Jew should take to heart the meaning of "Har Habayit b'yadenu! "
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In the 3,000 years since King David first made Jerusalem his capital, the only time it was divided was during the 19 years that Jordan controlled eastern Jerusalem following the War of Independence.
When Israel liberated that part of the city, Jerusalem was reunited -- never, ever to be divided again.
The myth is that "east" Jerusalem is "Arab." But this only appeared to be the case because Jordan rendered it Judenrein -- not only banishing all Jews, but destroying synagogues and desecrating cemeteries. The reality is that the very heart of ancient Jewish heritage is in the eastern part of the city.
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Today, almost half of the population of eastern Jerusalem -- more than 225,00 people -- is Jewish. Any notion of being able to divide the city -- with western Jerusalem for the Jews, and eastern Jerusalem for the Arabs, is pure nonsense.
In fact, the notion that the Palestinian Arabs have a legitimate claim to any part of Jerusalem is equally nonsense. And let it be clearly understood: They say they want the eastern part of the city for their capital. But a serious analysis of statements made by the Palestinian Authority makes it clear that they intend to have all of the city.
We made a grievous error, in turning over the daily administration of the Temple Mount to the Muslim Wakf after we had liberated it. Let there be no more mistakes.
To surrender the very heart of Jewish heritage would be to seriously weaken our national resolve, and to rob us of our deepest purpose. And don't imagine the Arabs are not aware of this.
Under no circumstances may Jerusalem be divided.
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Any so-called Jewish leader or thinker or writer, whether here in Israel or outside, who proposes such a division -- imagining it to be somehow necessary either in the interests of "peace" or to satisfy international demands -- does a serious disservice to Am Yisrael and the State of Israel. Such a move would serve only to weaken the Jewish people and to subvert the cause of true peace.
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Almost immediately after the city was reunited, a law was passed for the protection of holy places; it reads:
"The Holy Places shall be protected from desecration and any other violation and from anything likely to violate the freedom of access of the members of the different religions to the places sacred to them or their feelings with regard to those places..."
It must be noted that only under Israeli sovereignty will Christian holy places in Jerusalem be guarded.
In July 1980, the Knesset passed the Jerusalem Law, declaring, "Jerusalem, complete and united, is the capital of Israel." Eastern Jerusalem is indivisibly part of the capital.
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If you have never visited Jerusalem, I urge you to do so. There is no way to truly value her in your heart without knowing her. When you come, be sure to take a tour of the ancient Jewish sites in eastern Jerusalem.
Of course, the Kotel, and the tunnel adjacent, and the nearby archeological gardens. And go up on the Mount -- an important thing to do -- with a guide.
Not to be missed, as well, is Ir David -- the City of David, outside the city walls. This is the original ancient city, and archeologists regularly uncover new evidence of life there:
But it doesn't end with these sites. A guide can show you old Jewish neighborhoods, and much more.
See www.keepjerusalem.org .
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Im eshkachech:
If I forget thee, O Jerusalem, let my right hand lose its cunning; let my tongue cleave to the roof of my mouth, if I do not set Jerusalem above my greatest joy.
From Psalm 137
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Ya'akov Shwekey singing Im Eshkachech: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJBJnOO7Eck
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Celebrations were held last night at the Mercaz Harav Kook Yeshiva in Jerusalem. One of those who spoke was Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, who said:
"We build Jerusalem physically and spiritually. It is the duty of our generation to protect Jerusalem, keep it, develop it and build it. One does not divide one’s soul." (Emphasis added)
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Trade Minister Naftali Bennett (Habayit Hayehudi) also spoke, and he said (emphasis added):
"In recent days we hear about initiatives from the Saudis and from America. Some say openly that they are in favor of splitting Jerusalem. I have an argument with them, and I will never give in when it comes to this argument! But there are also these 'invisible divisors' - those who say they are against the division of Jerusalem, but they are in favor of a Palestinian state. These 'invisible divisors' are against the splitting of Jerusalem, but they freeze construction in our capital city.
"These invisible divisors do not tell us that they will cause us to give up the Temple Mount and the Old City – which are the heart of the Jewish people – and a heart is indivisible. And I ask all these invisible divisors: Excuse me, but where exactly will be the capital of the Palestinian state be? In Jericho? In Bethlehem? In Berlin?
"Already when President Obama visited here I said that a nation cannot be an occupier in its own country, and I say now that a nation cannot be an occupier in its own capital. We are not occupying Jerusalem. Jerusalem is ours! Jerusalem belongs to my grandfather’s grandfather and to my grandson's grandson. Neither I nor anyone else has the right to split it."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167825
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How I wish that on this day, there would be nothing to fill this post but rejoicing about Jerusalem. But wishing does not make it so.
I mention here matters of concern, to which I will return for further discussion. The very first was alluded to by Bennett, above, when he spoke about "'invisible divisors' [who] freeze construction in our capital city."
It has come from a multiplicity of sources that our prime minister is instituting some sort of building freeze past the Green Line. None of this is confirmed in its details, but the fact that something is going on seems very likely -- and is deeply disconcerting, indeed, infuriating, if so.
Part of the problem in verifying this information is that we're being told that Netanyahu is giving instructions not to put out tenders for construction (invitations for contractors to bid on jobs). This means that construction already begun will continue: there will not be a freeze on this. Not putting out tenders would mean that in the future there would not be any new construction contracted.
Today Army Radio reported that Netanyahu had instructed House Minister Uri Ariel (Habayit Hayehudi) regarding the tenders for construction projects in certain Judea and Samaria communities. When asked about this, Ariel is reported to have responded that he does not talk about private discussions between himself and the prime minister. This is hardly a denial. I consider Ariel one of the good guys, and I ask, what is going on?
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Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon was subsequently quoted by Army Radio as saying that he was unaware of any silent freeze on housing:
"The Prime Minister clearly said that he is willing to negotiate, but without preconditions, and a silent freeze is a precondition."
Yea, yea. But what the prime minister says and what he does are not always the same thing, are they?
Then PLO chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told Maan, the Palestinian Arab news agency, that the PLO had not been informed of any change in "Israel’s colonial plans."
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=593212
But Justice Minister Livni is scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Kerry in Rome today.
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The situation to our north is also deeply worrisome:
Three shells from Syria have hit in the Golan in the course of 24 hours. It is believed that these were strays from the on-going civil war and were not deliberately aimed at Israel. But Minister of Defense Ya'alon has made it clear, once again, that the IDF has a policy of immediately responding to such shelling whenever the source can be identified.
Israel, he said, is not "interfering in the Syrian civil war, but we've warned what our interests are, and we have called it 'red lines,' whether it's transferring quality weapons to a terrorist organization or violating our sovereignty along the border.
"...We will act to protect the security of Israel," he warned, and any Syrian cross-fire will be answered. Forces in the north are under orders to return fire without seeking approval. "Should they identify the source of fire, they will destroy it."
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More significant are reports of Assad's possible intentions towards Israel right now.
He continues to make noise about the attacks on Iranian weaponry, without taking direct action -- that is not the problem. Rather, Assad is considering permitting Palestinian Arabs in Syria to attack in the Golan. Khalid Abd al-Majid, secretary-general of the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front, has said that his faction will be meeting with Syrian authorities about this.
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Report-Syria-to-permit-Palestinians-to-attack-from-Golan-312365
This might set a precedent for allowing other radical groups -- stronger or better armed than the Palestinian Front -- to enter the Israeli Golan. Assad has scrupulously guarded against this possibility until now. But should his policy change, the IDF would be immediately and necessarily more involved.
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Peacekeepers from a Philippine battalion of the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force, were seized near al Jamlah, by Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, part of the Free Syrian Army -- clearly not from the Army's secular arm.
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The US and Russia are now said to be advancing an international conference to address the situation in Syria. I'm sure the speeches at a conference will have a huge effect.
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It is good that Prime Minister Netanyahu went to China, primarily, as I read it, to forge an enhanced trade relationship. But...
While he was there, so was the PA's Abbas. And the Chinese greeted him with a "four point peace plan" based on the '67 lines, and the capital in eastern Jerusalem. So what else is new?
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A Turkish negotiating contingent was just here to finalize arrangements for compensation that Israel will provide with regard to the Mavi Marmari incident. Reports are that it went well and that -- surprise! -- after this is achieved there may be an exchange of ambassadors.
The diplomatic/security situation requires a closer relationship between Israel and Turkey. But it remains pro forma for Turkish diplomats to attack Israel. Erdogan -- participating in a very large club --just issued criticism of Israel's alleged attack on Iranian weapons in Syria. Such hypocrisy, when Iranian weapons in Syria make him very uncomfortable.
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Steven Hawking, world renown British theoretical physicist, has just demonstrated just how stupid someone exceeding brilliant can be: According to the Guardian today, he has decided not to attend a conference to be hosted by President Shimon Peres here in Jerusalem, as a protest of the way Israel treats the Palestinians. He was to headline the conference, scheduled for next month, but pulled out on the unanimous advice of his British academic associates.
I would venture to say he knows next to nothing about the political/security realities here, and I point my finger at the British academic community, whose position comes as no surprise. The Guardian says Hawkings has been bombarded with an intense campaign by backers of the boycott against Israel. Regrettably, he serves as their unwitting tool.
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/8/may-6-2013-the-eternal-city.html
May 6, 2012: Following Through
The original expectation that Syria would not retaliate for Israel's hits inside of that country appears to be holding true:
A Syrian government official has indicated that Syria would not be responding "immediately: "Syria will respond to the Israeli aggression and will choose the moment to do so. It might not be immediate because Israel now is on high alert. We will wait but we will answer."
It has been suggested that statements by Israel regarding the need to prevent Iranian weaponry from making its way to Hezbollah provides a possible out for Syria. While indeed, the strikes were on Syrian soil, they weren't intended as attacks on Syria -- which would require a response.
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The situation with Hezbollah is somewhat more complex, and there has certainly been some saber-rattling, with talk about responding to aggression. However, according to YNet:
"Lebanese media published Monday that certain circles within Hezbollah say that there is a need to wait before setting any position beyond condemnation."
Said one operative who was cited: "'The situation is sensitive and there cannot be any quick steps against the aggression due to the sensitivity of the matter, and since a response is related to contacts and consultations between Syria, Iran. Hezbollah and Russia."
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4376769,00.html
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Not certain how significant this is, but I found some of the Times of Israel reporting on the Syrian response to the attacks, from a purely non-governmental perspective, to be interesting.
Yesterday I had written that even among people you might intuitively think would be glad that Israel had hit, the need for a politically correct stance was so strong that there was criticism across the board. But the Times has found exceptions to this:
"Israel is still my enemy -- but when my enemy does a neat job, I admit it," wrote one commentator cited by the Times.
Another wrote: "I’m sorry, but I can’t make up my mind between the Syrian army and the Israeli. The latter never harmed me, but the Arab inside me hates it; whereas everything inside me hates the former."
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-strikes-a-blow-to-conventional-arab-thinking/
Dare we derive even a modicum of hope for the future from such messages?
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Repeatedly I'm seeing analysis suggesting that what Israel has done puts pressure on Obama to also act in Syria. And it is this that I would like to focus on here.
Last Thursday, in "The Flip Side," I wrote:
"Israeli interests here are not the same as US interests. This is a critical point...the Israeli red line is not Assad's use of such weapons against his people but the transfer of...weapons to terrorist groups that might use them against us...."
I expressed confidence then that Israel would act in this regard as it was perceived necessary, and, indeed, that is precisely what happened.
But Obama? Precisely what would be his goal, were he to decide to act in a significant way now?
Would he send in major contingents of ground troops to secure all non-conventional weapons identified by intelligence and currently controlled by Assad troops -- because his goal is to prevent the use of gas?
Would he seek to bomb Assad sufficiently so that he would be deterred from or rendered incapable of continuing to kill his own people -- because that would be his essential goal?
That would mean, essentially, taking Assad down. And if he were to do that, what would he then need to do to assure that radicals didn't seize control?
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My point here, which is essentially the point I made last week, is that there may be little Obama can do now that would be constructive. Even, I wrote last week, providing armaments to non-jihadist rebels from the Free Syria Army might simply prolong the war without providing this Army the means to genuinely secure the country. They are fighting a force that is backed by Iran and Hezbollah and Russia.
What is more, the nature of the rebel forces has changed over time, as they have become infiltrated by Islamists. Thus, if assistance via weaponry and training did make it possible for rebel forces to take down Assad, the net result would not be positive. It is reasonable to expect that the radicals would gain control, probably even seizing weapons meant for secular rebels.
I am not trying to give Obama a pass here. I think he blew it big time and that he has a great deal to answer for. Had he acted decisively early in the civil war, providing significant support to secular rebels, the outcome might have been reasonably constructive. But he dithered, and dithered...and we see what the situation is now.
Thus I suggest that, at this point, the pundits who say Obama should finally DO something should first analyze precisely what they think he should be doing and what outcome they might expect from this action.
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Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah has written a briefing for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs entitled "Stalemate in the Syrian Civil War" (emphasis added):
"On the second anniversary of the Syrian civil war, those who hurriedly announced the demise of the Assad regime realize that the existing power structures are strong enough to endure a war of attrition with the rebels...
"The coalition of minorities around Assad has not disintegrated and the pillars of the regime remain in place. Assad has proved that he has the resolve to conduct effective campaigns against the rebels in a very hostile international environment, while continuing to rule and provide for the daily life of the population under his control...
"The United States and Europe face an impossible dilemma: on the one hand, they would like Assad to fall; on the other, they do not want an Islamist regime that is worse than the ones that succeeded Mubarak in Egypt and Ben-Ali in Tunisia...
"The same dilemma confronts Israel. On the one hand, Jerusalem would like to see an end to the Iranian-led 'axis of evil.' On the other, the prospect of a militant Islamic regime, linked to al-Qaeda and possessing the Syrian military arsenal, is a nightmare Jerusalem cannot live with..."
http://jcpa.org/article/stalemate-in-the-syrian-civil-war/
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This truly is a "no-win" situation. There will be no "Spring" in Syria, with democracy and freedom bursting out all over. There will not even be relative stability for some long time to come.
What we need to keep in mind is that some possible resolutions are decidedly more horrendous than others. Before there is intervention, all parameters and all potential consequences must be seriously considered. As in medicine, the by-word must be, "First do no harm."
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I recommend "The Fourth Great War," an incisive analysis on this subject, with a different slant, by Shoshana Bryen of the Jewish Policy Center (emphasis added):
She tells us that in this war we are confronting a battle of "Sunni expansionists vs. Shiite expansionists":
"Neither is an appealing partner for the United States in the region, and neither has a natural claim on our politics or our interests. For reasons having to do with Iran itself, the U.S. will not choose to support Iranian-backed Shiites. However, Sunni expansionists are simply no better; Saudi and Qatari-supported Islamists run from the unacceptable Muslim Brotherhood to the even more unacceptable Wahabis, al Qaeda or Jabhat al Nusra – it is like a choice between cancer and a heart attack.
"...If American policy in Syria seems feckless, it is because it is feckless.
"...The administration's policy on Syria has been a series of visceral reactions to graphic events and horrific casualties, offset by a gigantic distaste for confrontation. Without a definition of America's strategic interests, such as a defeat for both Iran and the Sunni jihadists, the chance remains that America might be dragged into another front in the Fourth Great War. A war in which neither side is our friend."
http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/4230/the-fourth-great-war
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Hopefully, onward in my next posting to a host of other issues.
But here, please, take a look at this unusual article. It tells a great deal about who we are, and who the Arabs in Gaza are:
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=9055
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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.
http://arlenefromisrael.squarespace.com/current-postings/2013/5/6/may-6-2012-following-through.html
May 5, 2013: We Mean It
And thank Heaven that we do...
Israel officials -- government and military -- have repeatedly said that we will not permit a situation in Syria in which "game changing" weaponry -- whether WMD or missiles -- is passed to terrorist forces. And we have shown, again and again that we do mean what we say and are willing to act on it. In the last few days, we've apparently (shall we say, "allegedly") demonstrated this not once, but twice.
Because -- as would be expected! -- there is no official report from Israeli sources, I cannot provide precise information on what was (allegedly) entailed. Along with everyone else, I am relying on secondary sources -- US and other foreign media -- which secure their information in a variety of ways; and an unnamed Israeli official speaking off the record, after the news broke in foreign media. Many of these sources are referenced in Israeli media. Not all agree on particulars.
However, while it cannot be confirmed, that we have hit in Syria seems fairly certain.
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The first hit came very late Thursday night or early Friday morning. It was reportedly accomplished from Lebanese airspace, it is believed without entry into Syrian airspace.
According to Israel National News, pairs of Israeli planes entered Lebanese airspace three times, each time remaining for two to three hours.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/167698
According to Reuters, as reported by YNet, Israel's air force possesses so-called "standoff" missiles that, once fired, are able to coast dozens of kilometers across ground to their targets.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4375921,00.html
For more information on Israel's standoff missiles, see Haaretz here:
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The most specific information -- which was cited extensively elsewhere -- came from yesterday's NYTimes, which reported that what was hit were Iranian surface-to-surface missiles -- Fateh 110 missiles, which carry a 600 kg. warhead, have considerable accuracy, and can reach most of Israel from southern Lebanon -- that were being stored at the airport in Damascus and were likely due to be transferred to Hezbollah; the warehouse where they were held was believed to be under the control of Hezbollah and Iran's Quds forces.
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Citing foreign sources, who received information from Syrian rebel intelligence, YNet today also reported that a convoy that was in the process of transferring weapons to Hezbollah was hit on the road between Damascus and Beirut -- in three separate strikes by Israeli F-16s, pictured below. Again, it is thought that these attacks were initiated from Lebanese airspace. And it may well be that the reference by Israel National News to sets of planes entering Lebanese airspace refers to these attacks, as well as the attack on the airport in Damascus. We might call these two prongs of one attack.
Credit: AFP/Jack Guez
There was some thought that what was hit in the convoy were anti-aircraft missiles, but the best estimate seems to be that in this attack, as well, it was surface-to-surface missiles that were taken out.
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Now very early this morning, there were media reports of major explosions near Damascus, as a military research center in Jamraya was attacked by rockets, with possible hits on two nearby sites as well -- an ammunition depot and Republican Guard battalions.
At Jamraya, also, it is believed that Iranian missiles were targeted, but it seems less clear at the moment whether Israeli jets may have entered Syrian airspace.
If the name Jamraya rings a bell it's because Israel hit there in January of this year.
Referred to as a "scientific research center," this is a site of major military significance, where research is done and weapons are stored; its location near the Lebanese border makes transfer of weaponry easier.
For more on Jamraya: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22421732
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Last night a Cabinet meeting was called to discuss the situation, and for the first time there was official comment of sorts:
In a couple of different venues, Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon said, "The State of Israel is protecting its interests and will continue doing so. I am not confirming or denying the reports...We have said on various occasions in the past that we will do everything anywhere in order to protect those interests."
Another Security Cabinet meeting was held this afternoon.
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In the end, the precise process by which we accomplished the attacks, and the precise armaments that have been destroyed, are less important than the fact that we did act, and successfully.
The message being sent to Syria and Hezbollah, and by extension to Iran, is considerable. In fact, the most important message is to Iran, with regard to our meaning it when we speak about Red Lines.
At first, I read disclaimers by Syria and Iran saying they had no information on an Israeli attack. That's one way to attempt to handle matters. No need to respond if nothing happened.
But in more recent hours there have been threats from both quarters: Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi says Israeli air strikes against targets outside of Damascus "opens the door to all possibilities." And Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad told CNN that the attack on a Syrian facility near Damascus is a "declaration of war." While Lebanese media quoted Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, as saying: "Resistance forces will respond to the Israeli aggression… Iran will not allow to Israel destabilize the region."
The IAF is carefully monitoring our northern skies, which have been closed to civilian air traffic, and we are on alert more broadly.
But as far as Syria is concerned, I do not believe there will be a direct attack. Assad may be ruthless and amoral, but he's not irrational or stupid. His resources are sorely depleted, and if he wants his regime to survive, he will not take on a new battle with a stronger enemy.
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Nor do I believe that Iran would attempt to hit Israel directly now. But in this instance, use of its proxy Hezbollah is a possibility (the threat by the Iranian chief of staff did come via Lebanon) -- although I suspect there is only a small possibility with regard to a direct missile attack. Here, too, we are looking at an entity that is somewhat weakened and depleted. Hezbollah forces are in Syria fighting, and Shia/Sunni tensions have generated a downward spiral for Hezbollah.
See: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/beginning-end-hezbollah .
More on Hezbollah soon.
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President Obama, while saying that it is not his position to verify whether it was Israel that hit in Syria, was quick to say that Israel has a right to act to ensure that sophisticated weapons don't reach Hezbollah.
My own guess is that this man who prefers not to act himself, and still hasn't even decided whether to send arms to the Free Syrian Army, is delighted that Israel is acting.
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True to form, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, who should be shipped out permanently, has taken his standard line: He is "gravely concerned" about the news of possible Israeli strikes in Syria, and he urges respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. The head of the international agency that has turned a blind eye to the deaths of 70,000 Syrians has nothing to say with regard to what Israel does.
What both fascinates and bewilders me (it shouldn't, I know) is that criticizing Israel is so politically correct in certain Muslim/Arab circles that it proceeds even when doing so is counterintuitive. Rebel forces have come out with criticism, when they should be delighted at anything that weakens Assad. But welcome an attack by Israel and appear to be -- shock! -- on the same side? Never.
The Arab League has issued a condemnation of Israel's actions -- and specifically, it should be noted, have Egypt and Turkey, both supporters of Syrian rebel forces, done so.
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After a delay of some hours generated by the situation with Syria, PM Netanyahu has flown to China, where there will be discussions regarding Iranian issues and economic ones. A visit with major implications.
In his stead, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon is acting prime minister.
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